This is the first time we have done this analysis since our April publication and we were surprised that the results for sheet and strip products weren’t as good as we expected. Our analysis is based on data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis […]
Tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum exports to Mexico may be coming if the Trump administration does not drop its Section 232 tariffs on Mexican imports, says Mexican steel association Canacero. “They already agreed, this government and the incoming one, that we will apply resounding mirror measures,” Canacero Vice President Raul Gutierrez said at a […]
After rising in October and November, ferrous scrap prices are expected to move sideways in December with the possibility of a small $10 per ton increase for some grades. But weakness overseas complicates predictions longer term, say Steel Market Update sources. “December is generally a month when scrap prices rise,” said CRU North America Steel […]
Few of the steel buyers canvassed by Steel Market Update this week expect flat roll prices to rise significantly in the first quarter. Most anticipate prices stabilizing or continuing to trend downward, especially if the Trump administration lifts the Section 232 tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. The promise of increased supplies from the […]
In response to widespread concerns about the pace, transparency and fairness of the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariff exclusion process, a bipartisan group of senators has requested that the Government Accountability Office conduct an independent review of the Commerce Department’s performance. In a Nov. 26 letter to the GAO, U.S. Senators Doug Jones (D-Ala.), […]
September apparent steel supply declined to 9,101,986 net tons, according to government data released late last week. This is the third lowest level of the year, above only February (8.8 million tons) and June (8.9 million tons). Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total […]
The North American auto industry is urging the White House to drop the Section 232 tariffs before the official signing of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). During testimony last week before the International Trade Commission, the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association, Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers and the American Automotive Policy Council asked the administration to exempt […]
Tariffs are turning out to be a boon for U.S. ports, at least temporarily, as retailers and manufacturers rush to get products to the U.S. before new tariffs on China go into effect in January. Ports reported record cargo volumes in the past few months. The Port of Los Angeles set a cargo handling record […]
U.S. steel exports in September totaled 584,858 net tons (530,575 metric tons), down 9.6 percent from August and down 35.3 percent from September 2017. Surpassing August’s low, this is now the lowest total monthly export figure seen since December 2002 when 527,659 tons were shipped out of the country. Prior to the last three months, […]
Total rolled product imports declined by 20.4 percent in October, versus the same month last year, measured as a three-month moving average, but the effects of Section 232 are still not clear. This early look at October’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below). Figure 1 shows the tonnage of […]
Global trade protectionism and political uncertainty weighed heavily on manufacturing in October. Manufacturing slowed to its lowest level in almost two years, according to the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The headline index registered 52.1, down from 52.2 in September. Weaker increases in new business and a contraction of new export orders muted production growth during […]
Manufacturing activity continues to be strong, according to the latest ISM Report on Business, although slowing its pace of growth as it enters the fourth quarter. The October PMI declined 2.1 percentage points from September to register 57.7 percent. Most of the components of the PMI are trending at a slower rate. The new orders […]
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 4.2 percent. The growth in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, government spending and business investment. These […]
The following article was contributed by CRU North America Steel Analyst Ryan McKinley The trade dispute between the United States and Canada has caused inventories to build and put downward pressure on prices. The 25 percent duties on steel imports in place by Canada and the U.S. against one another is eroding profits and driving […]
Section 232 tariffs are coming under fire by representatives of Mexico and Canada, who say there will be no signing of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade in North America until the tariffs are lifted. “We need to solve that issue before the signing takes place,” said Juan Carlos Baker, Mexico undersecretary for foreign […]
Trade measures by the U.S. are causing concern for the European steel market, according to a new report by the European Union steel association EUROFER. Steel imports are growing faster than domestic shipments by EU mills, according to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2018-2019. “Growth is stabilizing in EU steel markets, in line with […]
United Steelworkers in Canada are rejecting any plan by the U.S. to impose quotas on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. “Canada’s government must emphatically stand up for the Canadian steel and aluminum industries and thousands of families whose livelihoods are at stake,” said USW National Director Ken Neumann. “There is no justification for Canada to […]
Apparent steel supply remained high in August, coming in at 9,828,339 net tons, according to government data released late last week. This is the third highest level of the year, just a hair under the April figure (9,829,298 tons), and both being about 100,000 tons under the March high (9,935,479 tons). Apparent steel supply is […]
U.S. steel exports in August totaled 646,692 net tons (586,670 metric tons), down 1.4 percent over July and down 29.5 percent from August 2017. Surpassing July’s low, this is now the lowest total export figure seen since May 2009 when 627,968 tons were shipped out of the country. Prior to July and August levels, total […]
Retaliatory tariffs are taking aim at those sectors that have been the strongest supporters of President Trump. An analysis of data by the Brookings Institution reports that 6.1 percent of U.S. exports, or $121 billion worth of goods, are now subject to tariffs by China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico. The Trump administration has […]
Rolled product imports into the United States were down by 21.6 percent in September on a three-month moving average basis compared with the prior year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of import license data. Figure 1 shows the tonnage of total rolled steel and semi-finished imports through September on a 3MMA basis. The […]
After months of contentious bargaining, the U.S. has reached a new trilateral trade agreement with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA. In last minute negotiations, Canada agreed to give the U.S. increased dairy market access while retaining the Chapter 19 trade remedy dispute settlement. The new treaty, to be called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), will […]
The renegotiated NAFTA, now called USMCA (the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement), still needs to be ratified in Mexico, the United States and Canada, but it is generating a plethora of commentary, both supportive and cautious. The new deal reached late Sunday “provides certainty to financial markets and supports investment and job creation in our country,” said incoming […]
The slowdown for global manufacturing continued in September, according to the latest J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The headline PMI fell to a 22-month low at 52.2, down from 52.6 in August. The PMI has been above the 50.0 neutral mark since March 2016, but has declined in each of the past five months. Output […]
Despite moderating prices, the outlook for the U.S. steel market is generally favorable for 2019, reported Josh Spoores, CRU Principal Analyst for North America, during a CRU Webinar on Friday. The Trump administration’s Section 232 steel tariff has limited competition from steel imports this year. Steel sheet arrivals into the U.S. are down 12 percent […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this new role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategy for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a Trader at Cargill spending time in Metal […]
Lewis Leibowitz, trade attorney and contributor to Steel Market Update, offers the following commentary on the latest developments in Washington: According to Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative, “we are sort of out of time” to negotiate including Canada in a revised NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement). There are a few sticking points […]
Ferrous scrap prices have been on the decline, but may find a bottom in October, as most Steel Market Update sources forecast flat to slightly higher pricing next month. CRU Steel Analyst Ryan McKinley reports that sentiment seems to be building for a “strong sideways” market in October. “If this play’s out, it will be […]
Global economic expansion may have reached its peak as trade tensions pressure markets, says a new report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. OECD is projecting global GDP growth will settle at 3.7 percent in 2018 in its Interim Economic Outlook. “Amidst rising trade tensions and heightened trade policy uncertainty, global trade growth […]
Major leading economic indicators are all telling the same story—that U.S. economic growth is slowing, with little effect likely from the Trump administration tax cut, reported economist Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics in his remarks Aug. 29 at the Steel Market Update steel summit in Atlanta. While an average GDP growth of 2.6 percent in […]