By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the key short-term impacts on the European steel market are likely to be increased delays for material crossing the UK-EU border as well as modifications to the EU safeguard system. Beyond short-term behavior such as stockpiling, there are possible longer-term effects, perhaps […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. This is a quarterly analysis that SMU performs using data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the […]
January apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,902,993 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. This is the highest level seen since March 2018 when apparent supply was 9,935,479 tons. January apparent […]
By CRU China Analysts China released a slew of stimulus measures during the NPC and CPPCC meeting in March in order to avoid a material slowdown in economic growth in the short term. Further and more substantial cuts to VAT rates were one of those measures. This followed an earlier VAT reduction from 17 percent […]
President Trump’s now aborted threat this week to close the Mexican border over immigration prompted a coalition of industries to express their concerns about border trade. In a letter sent to National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney, the coalition discussed the need for all […]
Year over year, total rolled product imports in March were down by 11.2 percent, measured as a three-month moving average (3MMA). This early look at March’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below). Beginning in January 2018, we expanded this import analysis to include all major steel sectors: sheet, plate, […]
U.S. steel exports in January totaled 636,566 net tons (577,484 metric tons), up 22.6 percent from December, but down 23.4 percent from levels one year ago. Although up over the previous month, keep in mind that total exports for December 2018 were at a 16+ year low. The total January export figure is above the […]
Rising trade tensions took a toll on global economic growth in 2018 and will create strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020, says a new report by the World Trade Organization. Global trade grew 4.6 percent in 2017 generating optimism that an upward momentum was beginning. Data from 2018, however, showed trade underperforming, with growth of […]
Global manufacturing had another weak month in March. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from February at 50.6. with components of the index either flat or seeing only slight changes. Output and new export orders inched downward. Prices were relatively stable in March with no change on the input prices index and output […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Growth of U.S. GDP in fourth-quarter 2018 declined to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent in the third quarter, according to the third and final […]
Ferrous scrap settled up $20 per ton in March, but demand is softening and supplies are building, leading to predictions of April scrap prices that move sideways or decrease by $5 to $10 per ton. Outages at five mills in late March and early April will dampen scrap demand, said CRU North America Analyst Ryan […]
Ferrous scrap prices for June are difficult to predict, report Steel Market Update sources, who disagree on the degree to which the lower tariffs on Turkish steel will affect demand for scrap exports from the U.S. Most expect scrap prices to settle sideways next month after declines for most of the year, but a small […]
Mexico has renewed the 15 percent tariff on imports of iron and steel products from countries with which it does not have a free-trade agreement. The tariffs cover 186 products and were originally introduced in 2015 to protect domestic producers from Asian imports. The newest renewal cites the “crisis facing the international steel market caused […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The 13th National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s Parliament, concluded its annual two-week meeting in March. The NPC is arguably the most important policy meeting in China because it is when key macroeconomic targets are announced together with the policies required to support them. This year’s NPC has drawn attention […]
Over the next couple of years there will be approximately 20 million tons of capacity built in North America. Most of us focus on the capacity being built by Nucor, Steel Dynamics, JSW USA and others. What is overlooked is the capacity being built just south of the U.S. border in Mexico. In an effort […]
Big River Steel still considers Brownsville, Texas, an attractive site for a new EAF mill and the Port of Brownsville is ready whenever BRS greenlights the project. In his State of the Port address this week, Brownsville Navigation Chairman John Reed noted that Big River Steel extended its land lease option for another year. A […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that billions in capital investments by domestic steelmakers over the next few years, adding more than 20 million tons of new capacity to the market, will cause a glut of supply that proves disastrous for steel prices—a phenomenon they have dubbed “Steelmageddon.” Steel Market Update canvassed the market this […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Chief Market Risk Officer, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
It has been a year since President Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on steel imports under Section 232, and The Wall Street Journal asked in its Sunday editorial: “How are those steel tariffs working”? The American Institute for International Steel, currently embroiled in a constitutional challenge to the use of Section 232 to regulate imports […]
As the market waits anxiously to see if President Trump gives in to the international pressure to rethink his national security tariff on steel imports, it’s clear that steel fabricators are not big fans of Section 232. Speaking at the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association annual meeting March 5 in Nashville, panelists’ comments reflected the divisive […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Steel and aluminum tariffs are plainly on the table as part of the USMCA approval strategy. Canada and Mexico insist on the removal of the tariffs as part of ratification of the new “NAFTA 2.0.” U.S. Trade Representative […]
By CRU Group’s Zinc Analysis Team Zinc’s price on the LME tracked copper and nickel sharply lower on March 8 as data showed a steep fall in overall Chinese exports in February. Even though January and February data from China can be misleading due to the New Year holiday, the contraction in export volumes rattled […]
December apparent steel supply was calculated at 8,971,570 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. December apparent steel supply saw a 469,929 ton or 5.5 percent increase compared to the same month […]
Orders for manufactured durable goods increased for the third month in a row, gaining 0.4 percent in January despite economists’ predictions of a decline. Orders were driven by an increase in transportation orders, especially orders for civilian aircraft, which grew 15.9 percent. Excluding the volatile transportation category, durable goods orders declined 0.1 percent. Core capital […]
U.S. steel exports in December totaled 519,099 net tons (470,919 metric tons), down 15.7 percent from November, and down 31.0 percent from levels one year ago. The last time total steel exports were this low was over 16 years ago, back in July 2002, when 504,621 tons of steel were exported outside of the United […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: President Trump may be forced to concede some ground on his Section 232 tariffs in order to get legislators in Canada and Mexico to sign off on the new North American trade agreement. One option the administration reportedly […]
In the recent op-ed below, American Iron and Steel Institute President and CEO Tom Gibson reiterated AISI’s support of steel tariffs and opposition to congressional legislation called “The Bicameral Congressional Trade Authority Act,” which would prematurely terminate the tariffs. “The massive overcapacity in steel still exists globally. And China in particular is producing steel at record levels—exceeding […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. U.S. economic growth slowed to 2.6 percent in fourth-quarter 2018, down from 3.4 percent in the third quarter, according to the initial estimate of […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Chief Market Risk Officer, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: We are about to celebrate (or mourn, as the case might be) the first anniversary of “national security” tariffs on steel and aluminum. As we all know, in March 2018 President Trump proclaimed 25 percent tariffs on most steel […]