The growth of U.S. GDP in Q1 2019 increased to 3.2 percent and exceeded economists’ expectations. On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019 stating: “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the […]
U.S. steel exports in February totaled 599,430 net tons (543,794 metric tons), down 5.8 percent from January and down 25.6 percent from levels one year ago. The total February export figure is above the three-month moving average (3MMA, average of December 2018, January 2019, and February 2019) but below the 12-month moving average (12MMA, average […]
“A somewhat challenging flat-rolled price environment” is how Steel Dynamics CEO Mark Millett described the first quarter of 2019. SDI posted net income of $204 million in the first quarter and sales of $2.8 billion. Lower steel prices impacted sales resulting in 3.0 percent decline sequentially. Operating income for the company’s steel operations fell 22 […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The latest Chinese data surprised on the upside. It suggests that the China stimulus is working. But some of the strength is also likely due to one-off factors. As a result, we see the latest data as an indication that the economy is stabilizing rather than accelerating. Recent data […]
Demand for long products and tubular goods has seen strong growth, but sheet products are declining. This analysis by SMU staff is based on data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 through February 2019 and year-on-year […]
Steel interests in North America and the rest of the world are watching intently to see if the Trump administration grants some tariff relief to Canada and Mexico to clear the way for final approval of the new U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement. One possible compromise being discussed (albeit one so far opposed by the U.S. trading […]
Global steel demand will top 1.75 billion metric tons by the end of next year, despite economic headwinds in many parts of the globe, predicts the World Steel Association in its April 2019 Short Range Outlook. Worldwide, steel demand will increase by 1.3 percent this year to 1,735 Mt, followed by further 1 percent growth […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the key short-term impacts on the European steel market are likely to be increased delays for material crossing the UK-EU border as well as modifications to the EU safeguard system. Beyond short-term behavior such as stockpiling, there are possible longer-term effects, perhaps […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. This is a quarterly analysis that SMU performs using data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the […]
January apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,902,993 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. This is the highest level seen since March 2018 when apparent supply was 9,935,479 tons. January apparent […]
By CRU China Analysts China released a slew of stimulus measures during the NPC and CPPCC meeting in March in order to avoid a material slowdown in economic growth in the short term. Further and more substantial cuts to VAT rates were one of those measures. This followed an earlier VAT reduction from 17 percent […]
President Trump’s now aborted threat this week to close the Mexican border over immigration prompted a coalition of industries to express their concerns about border trade. In a letter sent to National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney, the coalition discussed the need for all […]
Year over year, total rolled product imports in March were down by 11.2 percent, measured as a three-month moving average (3MMA). This early look at March’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below). Beginning in January 2018, we expanded this import analysis to include all major steel sectors: sheet, plate, […]
U.S. steel exports in January totaled 636,566 net tons (577,484 metric tons), up 22.6 percent from December, but down 23.4 percent from levels one year ago. Although up over the previous month, keep in mind that total exports for December 2018 were at a 16+ year low. The total January export figure is above the […]
Rising trade tensions took a toll on global economic growth in 2018 and will create strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020, says a new report by the World Trade Organization. Global trade grew 4.6 percent in 2017 generating optimism that an upward momentum was beginning. Data from 2018, however, showed trade underperforming, with growth of […]
Global manufacturing had another weak month in March. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from February at 50.6. with components of the index either flat or seeing only slight changes. Output and new export orders inched downward. Prices were relatively stable in March with no change on the input prices index and output […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Growth of U.S. GDP in fourth-quarter 2018 declined to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent in the third quarter, according to the third and final […]
Ferrous scrap settled up $20 per ton in March, but demand is softening and supplies are building, leading to predictions of April scrap prices that move sideways or decrease by $5 to $10 per ton. Outages at five mills in late March and early April will dampen scrap demand, said CRU North America Analyst Ryan […]
Ferrous scrap prices for June are difficult to predict, report Steel Market Update sources, who disagree on the degree to which the lower tariffs on Turkish steel will affect demand for scrap exports from the U.S. Most expect scrap prices to settle sideways next month after declines for most of the year, but a small […]
Mexico has renewed the 15 percent tariff on imports of iron and steel products from countries with which it does not have a free-trade agreement. The tariffs cover 186 products and were originally introduced in 2015 to protect domestic producers from Asian imports. The newest renewal cites the “crisis facing the international steel market caused […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The 13th National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s Parliament, concluded its annual two-week meeting in March. The NPC is arguably the most important policy meeting in China because it is when key macroeconomic targets are announced together with the policies required to support them. This year’s NPC has drawn attention […]
Over the next couple of years there will be approximately 20 million tons of capacity built in North America. Most of us focus on the capacity being built by Nucor, Steel Dynamics, JSW USA and others. What is overlooked is the capacity being built just south of the U.S. border in Mexico. In an effort […]
Big River Steel still considers Brownsville, Texas, an attractive site for a new EAF mill and the Port of Brownsville is ready whenever BRS greenlights the project. In his State of the Port address this week, Brownsville Navigation Chairman John Reed noted that Big River Steel extended its land lease option for another year. A […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that billions in capital investments by domestic steelmakers over the next few years, adding more than 20 million tons of new capacity to the market, will cause a glut of supply that proves disastrous for steel prices—a phenomenon they have dubbed “Steelmageddon.” Steel Market Update canvassed the market this […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Chief Market Risk Officer, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
It has been a year since President Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on steel imports under Section 232, and The Wall Street Journal asked in its Sunday editorial: “How are those steel tariffs working”? The American Institute for International Steel, currently embroiled in a constitutional challenge to the use of Section 232 to regulate imports […]
As the market waits anxiously to see if President Trump gives in to the international pressure to rethink his national security tariff on steel imports, it’s clear that steel fabricators are not big fans of Section 232. Speaking at the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association annual meeting March 5 in Nashville, panelists’ comments reflected the divisive […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Steel and aluminum tariffs are plainly on the table as part of the USMCA approval strategy. Canada and Mexico insist on the removal of the tariffs as part of ratification of the new “NAFTA 2.0.” U.S. Trade Representative […]
By CRU Group’s Zinc Analysis Team Zinc’s price on the LME tracked copper and nickel sharply lower on March 8 as data showed a steep fall in overall Chinese exports in February. Even though January and February data from China can be misleading due to the New Year holiday, the contraction in export volumes rattled […]
December apparent steel supply was calculated at 8,971,570 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. December apparent steel supply saw a 469,929 ton or 5.5 percent increase compared to the same month […]