Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The announcements over the last few days have substantially altered the steel and aluminum trade policy priorities of the United States. I am referring, of course, to the following: (1) the U.S. has dropped steel and aluminum tariffs […]
March apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,601,722 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. March apparent steel supply saw a 333,756 ton or 3.4 percent decrease compared to the same month […]
I have moved from our Steel 101 workshop in Iowa to Minnesota where I met with a large flat rolled service center this afternoon. The service centers are consistently reporting to SMU that the domestic steel mills are just plain producing too much steel. With scrap down and the marginal cost to produce a hot […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level members in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Rolled product imports declined by 24.4 percent in April year over year on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This early look at April’s import volume is based […]
U.S. steel exports in March totaled 589,057 net tons (534,384 metric tons), down 1.7 percent from February and down 32.2 percent from levels one year ago. This is the third lowest monthly export level seen in our 10+ year history, behind December 2018 at 519,099 tons and September 2018 at 584,858 tons. The total March […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Manjot Singh As has been the case in the last few weeks, Chinese BF utilization rates have remained above 80 percent and rebar inventories have continued to dwindle, suggesting buying appetite for raw materials has been robust in China. In terms of iron ore specifically, inventories at Chinese ports and mills […]
By the CRU Economics Team The Turkish economy is suffering its first recession in a decade. This has had knock-on effects on the global steel market, given Turkey’s prominence in this industry. A key question for the steel market is therefore, how long will the recession in Turkey last? We think that in the most […]
More than 40 percent of respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week said they are confused by the current steel market and price direction. Judging by their comments, it’s unclear to many why steel prices are declining at a time when the economy is so strong, imports are down and the […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Friday marks a turning point in the “trade war” between China and the United States. A widely expected breakthrough in negotiations was supposed to happen this past week, when the Chinese Vice Premier brought a trade delegation over […]
ArcelorMittal faced a number of challenges that impacted earnings in the first quarter resulting in net income plunging 66 percent to $414 million from $1.19 billion reported in both the fourth quarter of 2018 and first quarter of 2019. Earnings reflected a $150 million impairment charge related to the sale of assets to acquire ArcelorMittal […]
By CRU Analyst Michelle Liu Vale confirmed the suspension of tailings disposal at its Brucutu mine on Tuesday, May 7. After prices fell initially, there was a price rebound and the iron ore price ended up rising by $0.80 /t w/w to $94.90 /t for our assessed 62% Fe fines. On Tuesday, Brazil’s higher court […]
Final figures show that the EU28 steel market grew in 2018. However, forecasts estimate that it will fall slightly in 2019, reports the European Steel Association (EUROFER). The preliminary safeguard measures in place since mid-2018 could not prevent third country imports from rising sharply over the year and, as a consequence, local steel producers are […]
Global manufacturing activity appeared lackluster in April. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI hovered just above the no change mark at 50.3, down from 50.5 in March, and at its lowest reading since June 2016. “The global manufacturing sector remained subdued at the start of the second quarter, with the PMI barely above the 50.0 […]
Monthly oil production in the U.S. in January was second only to the all-time high set in December 2018. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil had recovered to $63.43/barrel on April 15, up from its recent low of $44.48 on Dec. 27. On April 23, Economy.com wrote: “Oil prices rebounded in the first […]
The growth of U.S. GDP in Q1 2019 increased to 3.2 percent and exceeded economists’ expectations. On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019 stating: “Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the […]
U.S. steel exports in February totaled 599,430 net tons (543,794 metric tons), down 5.8 percent from January and down 25.6 percent from levels one year ago. The total February export figure is above the three-month moving average (3MMA, average of December 2018, January 2019, and February 2019) but below the 12-month moving average (12MMA, average […]
“A somewhat challenging flat-rolled price environment” is how Steel Dynamics CEO Mark Millett described the first quarter of 2019. SDI posted net income of $204 million in the first quarter and sales of $2.8 billion. Lower steel prices impacted sales resulting in 3.0 percent decline sequentially. Operating income for the company’s steel operations fell 22 […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The latest Chinese data surprised on the upside. It suggests that the China stimulus is working. But some of the strength is also likely due to one-off factors. As a result, we see the latest data as an indication that the economy is stabilizing rather than accelerating. Recent data […]
Demand for long products and tubular goods has seen strong growth, but sheet products are declining. This analysis by SMU staff is based on data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 through February 2019 and year-on-year […]
Steel interests in North America and the rest of the world are watching intently to see if the Trump administration grants some tariff relief to Canada and Mexico to clear the way for final approval of the new U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement. One possible compromise being discussed (albeit one so far opposed by the U.S. trading […]
Global steel demand will top 1.75 billion metric tons by the end of next year, despite economic headwinds in many parts of the globe, predicts the World Steel Association in its April 2019 Short Range Outlook. Worldwide, steel demand will increase by 1.3 percent this year to 1,735 Mt, followed by further 1 percent growth […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the key short-term impacts on the European steel market are likely to be increased delays for material crossing the UK-EU border as well as modifications to the EU safeguard system. Beyond short-term behavior such as stockpiling, there are possible longer-term effects, perhaps […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. This is a quarterly analysis that SMU performs using data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the […]
January apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,902,993 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. This is the highest level seen since March 2018 when apparent supply was 9,935,479 tons. January apparent […]
By CRU China Analysts China released a slew of stimulus measures during the NPC and CPPCC meeting in March in order to avoid a material slowdown in economic growth in the short term. Further and more substantial cuts to VAT rates were one of those measures. This followed an earlier VAT reduction from 17 percent […]
President Trump’s now aborted threat this week to close the Mexican border over immigration prompted a coalition of industries to express their concerns about border trade. In a letter sent to National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow and Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney, the coalition discussed the need for all […]
Year over year, total rolled product imports in March were down by 11.2 percent, measured as a three-month moving average (3MMA). This early look at March’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below). Beginning in January 2018, we expanded this import analysis to include all major steel sectors: sheet, plate, […]
U.S. steel exports in January totaled 636,566 net tons (577,484 metric tons), up 22.6 percent from December, but down 23.4 percent from levels one year ago. Although up over the previous month, keep in mind that total exports for December 2018 were at a 16+ year low. The total January export figure is above the […]
Rising trade tensions took a toll on global economic growth in 2018 and will create strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020, says a new report by the World Trade Organization. Global trade grew 4.6 percent in 2017 generating optimism that an upward momentum was beginning. Data from 2018, however, showed trade underperforming, with growth of […]
Global manufacturing had another weak month in March. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from February at 50.6. with components of the index either flat or seeing only slight changes. Output and new export orders inched downward. Prices were relatively stable in March with no change on the input prices index and output […]