The official economic statistics out of China showed a decline in industrial production in July. But in June, China’s share of global steel production was 55.1 percent. Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. We don’t know the accuracy of these numbers, […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch Last week, Turkish scrap prices declined slightly by $4 /t w/w to $290 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, based on one 40 kt deal from the U.S. The Turkish market remains quiet because of the Eid al-Adha (Festival of the Sacrifice) holidays this past week. We consider this new price level of around $285-290 /t […]
Noting that “strict enforcement of U.S. trade law is a primary focus of the Trump administration,” the Commerce Department announced its 21st anticircumvention inquiry Wednesday, notable as the first self-initiated by the government without a complaint from the domestic industry. Commerce will be looking into possible circumvention involving exports of certain corrosion-resistant steel products (CORE) […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office announced new effective dates on billions of dollars of imports from China today. Goods that, according to an analysis from the advocacy group Tariffs Hurt the Heartland, amounted to $28 billion in trade […]
The U.S. exported 600,000 tons of steel in June, according to final Census data, a 5 percent slip from May, and down 34 percent from the same month one year ago. June exports were in line with the 2018 average (~610,000 tons), but down significantly compared to the past few years. This time last year, […]
The trade war with China escalated on Monday as China allowed its currency to weaken in retaliation for a new round of tariffs imposed by President Trump. The yuan fell to 7 per U.S. dollar, the lowest it has been in 11 years, making exports from China cheaper and more competitive versus the United States. […]
Steel shipments at Ternium Mexico were relatively flat in the second quarter, increasing 0.4 percent from the first quarter to 1.57 million metric tons. Sales of $1.37 billion slipped 3.9 percent from Q1 and fell 17 percent from Q2 2018. Steel prices have declined in the past three quarters in Mexico, mostly driven by a […]
By CRU Analyst Michelle Liu Rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China have driven one of the largest w/w falls in iron ore prices, a drop of $21 /t w/w to $98 /t. The U.S. president’s threat of imposing 10 percent tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports last Friday has escalated trade […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch On Friday, Aug. 2, the U.S. government announced 10 percent tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports that are not already covered by Section 301 (S301) tariffs. About 50 percent of the new tariffs cover steel-bearing machinery, while the rest are non-steel-containing items such as food, clothing, base metals […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices continued to decline in the past week as international steel prices continued to fall on a weak demand outlook for steel in the coming month. On Tuesday, Aug. 13, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $90.30 /t, down $7.70 /t w/w. Steel prices in […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: On Wednesday, President Trump tweeted that new tariffs would be imposed on U.S. imports from China, an escalation of the trade war that was launched in July 2018. The new tariffs, on most of the products not already […]
The government’s first estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019 was 2.1 percent, down from 3.1 percent in the first quarter. The current U.S. expansion is now the longest on record at 121 months dating back to June 2009. Last Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of GDP growth […]
Manufacturing conditions continued to deteriorate around the globe in July as trade disputes and tension took a toll on national economies. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 49.3 in July, slipping slightly from 49.4 in June and remaining in contraction for a third month. Nineteen of 30 nations surveyed in July signaled downturns, said […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices were steady in the past week as mills in China continue to demand spot cargoes while inventories at ports and mills remain low. Seaborne supply has, although somewhat improved, remained relatively weak as we conclude the month of July, a month that typically has lower Australian […]
By CRU Analyst Chris Bandmann CRU is launching weekly Turkish HR coil export prices, enhancing the existing suite of weekly Turkish long product and scrap prices. This Insight being offered for these other markets has now been brought to flats – and offers a window into the world of Turkish hot rolled coil exports. Turkey […]
Canadian ports in the Pacific Northwest have benefited from the U.S. trade war with China. Vancouver and Prince Rupert have seen combined market share for regional imports and exports increase from 59 percent in 2014 to 62.3 percent in the first half of 2019, according to JOC.com. The port at Seattle-Tacoma saw exports from the […]
The European Union has prepared a list of nearly $40 billion (€35 billion) in U.S. goods it will hit with retaliatory duties should President Trump decide to impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars and auto parts. EU Trade Commissioner Cecelia Malstrom said the list of targeted goods has been raised from €20 billion […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released foreign steel import preliminary Census data for June and license data for July. June imports totaled 2,023,081 net tons with 1,720,318 of those tons being finished steels (as opposed to semi-finished, which is slabs/billets). The July license data has total finished imports trending toward a 2 million net ton […]
May apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,387,605 net tons, according to data recently released by the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. May apparent steel […]
U.S. steel exports in May totaled 630,107 net tons (571,624 metric tons), up 4.6 percent from April, but down 26.5 percent from levels one year ago. May levels are on the high side for 2018, but low comapred to the past few years. This time last year, exports were averaging 840,000 to 860,000 tons. The […]
Total rolled product imports in June were down by 20.5 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis year over year. This follows the 27.4 percent decline in May on the same basis. This early look at June’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below.) This import analysis includes all […]
Demand for long products is very strong, driven by the construction industry. Demand for sheet products is declining. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and imports/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply […]
A new tariff on fabricated structural steel from Mexico adds another complication to U.S./Mexico relations, but is not expected to threaten ratification of the USMCA. The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary ruling in a countervailing investigation that U.S. producers are being harmed by imports of fabricated structural steel from Mexico and China. Canada […]
The U.S. is taking issue with retaliatory tariffs imposed by India in response to the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. In a request for consultation with the World Trade Organization, the U.S claims that India is violating Articles 1:1 and Article II 1(a) and (b) of GATT 1994. India issued an […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced duties of up to 456 percent in three preliminary circumvention rulings today involving exports of steel products from Vietnam. The circumvention rulings cover certain steel products that are first produced in Korea and Taiwan, then shipped to Vietnam for minor processing, and finally exported to the United States as […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 51.7 percent in June from 52.1 percent in May, its lowest reading since October 2016. The headline PMI has been softening since September 2018, noted Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Softening this month was primarily due to demand and inputs […]
Global manufacturing contracted in June with manufacturing indices falling as trade tensions and tariffs impacted business conditions. At 49.4, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI contracted to its lowest rate in six-and-a-half years. International trade continued to weaken with export orders falling for the tenth consecutive month. The majority of countries in the June survey […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: On Saturday in Osaka, Japan, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose any new trade restrictions and to resume negotiations on a general agreement to resolve their ongoing disputes. There are a […]
The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q1 2019 was 3.1 percent, but the mix of components gives cause for concern. This SMU report is very similar to the one we published for the first estimate on April 27. The first estimate for Q2 2019 will be published on July 26. After the worst […]
Declining ferrous scrap prices are expected to finally bottom in July, but only after backsliding by at least $10 per ton for one more month, predict Steel Market Update sources. Flat rolled steelmakers announced a $40 per ton increase in finished steel prices this week, which brings increased scrutiny to the price of scrap. Scrap […]