The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q1 2019 was 3.1 percent, but the mix of components gives cause for concern. This SMU report is very similar to the one we published for the first estimate on April 27. The first estimate for Q2 2019 will be published on July 26. After the worst […]
Declining ferrous scrap prices are expected to finally bottom in July, but only after backsliding by at least $10 per ton for one more month, predict Steel Market Update sources. Flat rolled steelmakers announced a $40 per ton increase in finished steel prices this week, which brings increased scrutiny to the price of scrap. Scrap […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The price of iron ore has surged as scrap has declined benefiting the EAF producers in the U.S. over the integrated mills. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through June […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
U.S. steel exports in April totaled 602,652 net tons (546,717 metric tons), up 2.3 percent from March, but down 30.0 percent from levels one year ago. This is the fifth lowest monthly export level seen in Steel Market Update’s 10-year history, behind December 2018 at 519,099 tons, September 2018 at 584,858 tons, March 2019 at […]
April apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,662,760 net tons, according to data released earlier this week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. April apparent steel supply saw a 166,538 ton or 1.7 percent decrease compared to the same month […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Demand for long products is strong, driven by construction, while demand for sheet is declining, according to this SMU analysis of the latest data from the American Iron and […]
Total rolled product imports in May declined by 27.4 percent year over year on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This follows the 24.4 percent decline in April. This early look at May’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below.) This import analysis includes all major steel sectors: sheet, plate, […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Happy Father’s Day, all you Dads! Several items of interest appeared during the past week: Steel and Aluminum Product Exclusions—The Commerce Department announced a new “232 Exclusion Portal” in a notice it published on June 10. The new […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison During the last two years, we have become somewhat accustomed to waking up to some fresh, new policy idea of the Trump administration, disseminated via presidential tweet. However, the levying of tariffs on Mexican imports, as punishment for Mexico allowing Central American migrants to traverse their country in order […]
The Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users issued the following statement on the one-year anniversary (June 1) of full implementation of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports: The Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users (CAMMU) is encouraged by the termination of Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico and […]
With prime steel prices continuing to slide, market conditions for distributors of secondary steel are a bit discouraging. The cheaper the prime products, the less incentive for buyers to seek out deals on nonprime material. Nonprime or secondary steel includes coils that are rejected because they failed to meet the specifications for their original use, […]
Promises of steel tariff relief were short-lived for Mexico as President Trump’s latest tariff move adds new penalties and dashes hopes for quick ratification of the USMCA. Trump announced on Thursday that 5 percent tariffs will be imposed June 10 on all Mexican goods, including steel, until such time that Mexico stops the influx of […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Asked a Steel Market Update reader: Why are U.S. prices now so far below China’s tariff-adjusted prices? The short answer is that Chinese exports to the U.S. are subject to antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVDs) totaling more than […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of April 2019, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in April totaled 80,770,000 metric tons, a decrease of 6.5 percent from the previous month, and a decrease of 2.6 percent from […]
Crude steel production worldwide increased by 6.4 percent in April, compared with April 2018, totaling 156.7 million metric tons, reported the World Steel Association in Brussels. WSA members represent about 85 percent of global steel production. China led the increase with crude steel production of 85 million tons, a jump of 12.7 percent from April […]
Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA) plans to increased steel production by 30 percent now that U.S. tariffs have been eliminated. The year-long Section 232 measures caused a 25 percent drop in AHMSA’s steel production and $300 million in lost revenue, said AHMSA President Alonso Ancira Elizondo. As orders from the U.S. fell due to the […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel The hot rolled steel market remains cautious but optimistic with domestic producer prices coming in at even larger discounts to foreign […]
Monthly oil production in the U.S. declined sharply in February as inventories increased. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has declined in the last month. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., reached $66.24 / barrel on April 20 and had declined to $60.97 on May 13. The total […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores and Analyst Ryan McKinley Steel imports to the U.S. from Canada and Mexico prior to the S232 tariffs were near 12 Mt on an annualized basis. Data from this past March and April show arrivals closer to 7.5 Mt annually. With the end of the S232 on the U.S.’s […]
Demand for long products and tubular goods have shown strong growth, but sheet products are declining. This analysis by SMU staff is based on data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 through March 2019 and year-on-year […]
The Trump administration has cut the U.S. tariffs on steel imports from Turkey in half, trimming them from 50 percent back to 25 percent where they were originally set last August. In a statement on Friday, the White House noted that imports of steel into the U.S. declined by 12 percent overall last year, and […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Several notices have been published in the last few days, signaling the new reality of the contentious trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. USTR issued a notice, which has not yet been seen in the Federal Register, […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The announcements over the last few days have substantially altered the steel and aluminum trade policy priorities of the United States. I am referring, of course, to the following: (1) the U.S. has dropped steel and aluminum tariffs […]
March apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,601,722 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. March apparent steel supply saw a 333,756 ton or 3.4 percent decrease compared to the same month […]
I have moved from our Steel 101 workshop in Iowa to Minnesota where I met with a large flat rolled service center this afternoon. The service centers are consistently reporting to SMU that the domestic steel mills are just plain producing too much steel. With scrap down and the marginal cost to produce a hot […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level members in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Rolled product imports declined by 24.4 percent in April year over year on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This early look at April’s import volume is based […]
U.S. steel exports in March totaled 589,057 net tons (534,384 metric tons), down 1.7 percent from February and down 32.2 percent from levels one year ago. This is the third lowest monthly export level seen in our 10+ year history, behind December 2018 at 519,099 tons and September 2018 at 584,858 tons. The total March […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Manjot Singh As has been the case in the last few weeks, Chinese BF utilization rates have remained above 80 percent and rebar inventories have continued to dwindle, suggesting buying appetite for raw materials has been robust in China. In terms of iron ore specifically, inventories at Chinese ports and mills […]
By the CRU Economics Team The Turkish economy is suffering its first recession in a decade. This has had knock-on effects on the global steel market, given Turkey’s prominence in this industry. A key question for the steel market is therefore, how long will the recession in Turkey last? We think that in the most […]