Tag: Exports

A container ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26, causing it to collapse. This has blocked sea lanes into and out of Baltimore port, which is the largest source of US seaborne thermal coal exports. The port usually exports 1–1.5 million metric tons (mt) of thermal coal per month. It is uncertain when sea shipping will be restored. But it could be several weeks or more. There are coal export terminals in Virginia, though diversion to these ports would raise costs.

SMU’s sheet prices firmed up modestly this week, even as CME hot rolled futures declined. What gives? My channel checks suggest that demand remains stable and that buyers have returned to the market following new HR base prices announced by mills earlier this month. I’m looking forward to seeing whether lead times, which have stabilized, will start extending. SMU will have more to share on that front when we release updated lead time figures on Thursday. As for HR futures, what a reversal! As David Feldstein wrote last Thursday, bulls expected mill price increase announcements. And we briefly saw the May contract climb as high as ~$1,000 per short ton (st).

Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on SMU’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 3, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free. You can register here. A recording of the webinar and the slide deck are available only SMU members.

APAC steel prices are likely to bottom out in the near term as seasonally higher demand coupled with production cuts may support prices. In the EU, prices are likely to remain under pressure, while fresh price increases are expected in the US. APAC steel prices are likely to bottom out in the near term In […]

As the month of March goes into the second half, the scrap community is trying to cope with the large drop in ferrous scrap earlier this month.

SMU caught up with Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries, on Wednesday’s Community Chat. As one of the largest independent steel pipe and tube manufacturers in North America, his company is also one of the largest steel buyers in the region. This year alone, the Chicago-based company will buy roughly 2.8 million tons of steel. As such, Zekelman provides a great perspective on the steel industry and the markets it serves.

North American auto assemblies edged down in February vs. the prior month, according to LMC Automotive data. While assemblies did fall month on month (m/m), they are up nearly 3% year on year (y/y).

SMU’s price for hot-rolled (HR) inched lower this week. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we start to see prices and lead times move higher in the weeks ahead. The modest declines in HR this week are probably the result of lingering deals cut at “old” prices, as sometimes happens after mill price increases. But those deals will probably be out of the market soon if they aren’t already. So why do I float the idea of higher prices? Some big buys have been placed. It reminds me a little of what we saw last fall, when people restocked in anticipation of higher prices once the UAW strike was resolved.

US senators have introduced the "Stop Mexico’s Steel Surge Act," which seeks to reimpose 25% Section 232 tariffs on Mexican steel imports.

The apparent supply of steel in the US increased in January, rising to a five-month high, according to data compiled from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

US steel exports jumped to 770,649 short tons (st) in January, rising 25% from the 12-month low recorded one month prior.

The LME three-month price continued to strengthen through Friday, March 8, defending its position close to its five-week high and rising further to $2,262 per metric ton (mt), up 0.3%, on the day. Gains were also noted over the last week in other industrial metals, including copper, zinc, and lead. The price gains appeared to be due to weakness in the US dollar, which fell sharply against a basket of currencies after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that rate cuts were still expected this year.

A weak start for sheet demand this year has continued to weigh on global prices. European demand outside of the renewable energy sector was weak enough that market participants said mills are likely to cut output further after several furnace restarts earlier in the year. In China, demand has also failed to pick up after recent holidays, and even government announcements of more stimulus measures during the country’s “Two Sessions” meetings failed to boost market confidence.

The strong resilience of iron ore prices has come to an end with the weak steel performance worldwide and significantly improved iron ore availability in China.

Mexico has said it will place retaliatory steel tariffs on the United States if the US acts to reimpose Section 232 on its neighbor, according to an article in Reuters.

What are some “Black Swans” to watch out for? With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, your mind might understandably move to conflicts overseas. Here is one closer to home to consider: US trade relations with Mexico taking a turn for the worse. I mention that because the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) dropped a (virtual) bombshell earlier this month.

Falling US sheet prices have reduced the attractiveness of hot-rolled (HR) coil imports as domestic mills price competitively to secure limited business. However, tightness in the CR coil market has extended delivery to June or July in some cases, and buyers may consider to import given competitive prices and arrival times.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai has voiced the United States’ unease at a marked increase in steel and aluminum imports from Mexico, and what she termed a lack of transparency about Mexican imports of the metals from third countries.

The Mid-American ISRI Chapter held its annual meeting in St. Louis this month. Over the years, this event has become a “must attend” for the scrap community nationwide.

Having just attended the historically significant ISRI Mid-America Chapter Consumers Night Banquet in St. Louis and waiting for my delayed flight, it seemed I had the perfect opportunity to inform the industry of a few items that came out while wheeling and dealing in the beautiful Union Train Station Hotel. For the West Coast export […]

North American auto assemblies recovered in January after a usual seasonal slowdown at year-end, according to LMC Automotive data. The result was driven by improved production across the region vs. December’s output.

The US apparent steel supply moved up to 7.79 million short tons (st) in December, a rise of 2% from 7.67 million st in November, according to data from the Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Apparent steel supply is determined by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US […]

The US Midwest premium continued to trade between 18.8–19.4 cents per pound (¢/lb) this week. There remains a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks in the current environment, but none have affected the short-term outlook for the premium. Current trading for April reached 20 ¢/lb which is on par with CRU’s current forecast for Q2’24. Dates closer to the end of the year have fallen to 21.2 ¢/lb.

The recession many predicted did not materialize in 2023, leading industry experts in several key end-user markets for steel cautiously optimistic for 2024.

The pig iron market has risen in recent months from the high $390s per metric ton (mt) last fall to $490/mt for Brazilian material and a bit more for Ukrainian product - for an overall average of $495/mt CFR.

Trade is not the major focus of the campaigns for the 2024 elections, either at the presidential or congressional level. But it is there as a live issue for business. And last August, former President Trump suggested a 10% tariff on virtually all imports as a “ring around the collar” of the US economy.

This week Magnitude 7 Metals issued a statement to announce the curtailment of its New Madrid smelter in Marston, Mo. The plant, one of only five remaining primary smelters in the US, employs approximately 450 union workers. With over 275,000 metric tons (mt) of capacity per year, New Madrid is the second-largest plant by capacity […]

The American steel market, including the stainless steel market, continues to face serious threats from subsidized and dumped imports resulting from foreign government policies creating an unfair playing field. It is no secret that China is a major culprit.

SMU’s Jan. 24 Community Chat, featuring CRU's Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, provided viewers with an update on the current state of the global iron ore market.

CRU forecasts that global demand for steelmaking raw materials will fall month over month (m/m) between mid-January and mid-February. The major downward pressure on raw materials demand will come from China, where steel end-use demand will fall toward the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday (Feb. 10–17).