By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The Fed cut interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting on Sept. 18, 2019, lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25bp to a range of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. This reduction in the Fed Funds rate was widely anticipated by markets and follows a 25bp rate cut in […]
Demand for sheet products is declining due to the weakness in manufacturing. Construction expenditures are showing signs of softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Total rolled product imports in August were down by 11.8 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis year over year. This follows the 15.3 percent decline in July on the same basis. This early look at August’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below.) This import analysis includes all […]
Do plans by U.S. mills to add millions of tons of new steelmaking capacity over the next few years make a price-killing supply glut inevitable? That’s a question very much open to debate, as shown by the spirited exchange between three leading analysts during Steel Market Update’s Steel Summit Aug. 28 in Atlanta. Despite some […]
So far, China has held its own in the prolonged trade war with the U.S., but August saw an unexpected decline in exports. China’s exports fell 1.0 percent in August after gaining 3.3 percent in July. Imports declined 5.6 percent, resulting in an overall trade surplus of $34.84 billion, said China’s General Administration of Customs. […]
The U.S. exported 620,598 tons of flat rolled steel in July, according to final Census data, a 4 percent rise from June, but down 5 percent from the same month one year ago. July exports were in line with the 2019 average of 611,019 tons, but down significantly compared to recent years. It was this […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Part one of our three-part series: What’s next for U.S. iron ore production? The U.S. is blessed with a wealth of natural resources, including oil, gas, gold, copper, timber and coal. In addition, the country has large iron ore deposits that have supported its steel industry for more than […]
As many of our trading company contacts have been telling SMU, finished steel imports have bottomed at just under 2 million short tons. Total foreign steel imports for the month of August are forecast to be 2.1 million net tons based on license data released on Tuesday of this week. Only 275,954 net tons are […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The last month has been interesting from a forecast standpoint given the reversal in the Fed’s monetary policy stance at the end of July, new developments in the U.S.-China trade war and a shift in currency policy in China. Through all this policy change, we continue to see a […]
The global manufacturing sector downturn continued to worsen in August. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted a 49.5 for its fourth month of contraction. More than half of the nations surveyed by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit had PMI readings below the neutral 50 mark last month, with Germany and the Czech Republic declining at the […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices have bounced back in the past week with a rally on Monday pushing prices back above $90 /t. Renewed market confidence resulted in futures on the Dalian commodity exchange hitting limit up in Monday trading. Steel prices in China have been stable throughout the week, which […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Manjot Singh China has been at the center of coal price upcycles that have taken place this millennium. The commodity supercycle that characterized the early-2000s was fueled by demand growth, especially in emerging markets like China. That bull market reached a peak in 2011 when slowing demand growth was met with […]
Contract negotiations between the United Auto Workers and Ford, GM and FCA are facing unwanted outside pressures. As a precautionary strike vote is being taken at UAW locals, the FBI reportedly raided homes of UAW presidents in Ohio, California, Wisconsin, Missouri and Michigan as part of a government investigation into bribery allegations. United Auto Workers […]
Demand for long products continues to be very strong, driven by the construction industry. Demand for sheet products is declining due to the weakness in manufacturing. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. North American auto production exhibited the normal slowdown in July. This report is based on data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The breakdown of […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: On Friday, China announced new tariffs in response to the Trump administration’s new tariffs on $300 billion of imports from China. Effective Sept. 1, China will impose 5 percent or 10 percent tariffs on more than 5,000 tariff […]
The official economic statistics out of China showed a decline in industrial production in July. But in June, China’s share of global steel production was 55.1 percent. Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. We don’t know the accuracy of these numbers, […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch Last week, Turkish scrap prices declined slightly by $4 /t w/w to $290 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, based on one 40 kt deal from the U.S. The Turkish market remains quiet because of the Eid al-Adha (Festival of the Sacrifice) holidays this past week. We consider this new price level of around $285-290 /t […]
Noting that “strict enforcement of U.S. trade law is a primary focus of the Trump administration,” the Commerce Department announced its 21st anticircumvention inquiry Wednesday, notable as the first self-initiated by the government without a complaint from the domestic industry. Commerce will be looking into possible circumvention involving exports of certain corrosion-resistant steel products (CORE) […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office announced new effective dates on billions of dollars of imports from China today. Goods that, according to an analysis from the advocacy group Tariffs Hurt the Heartland, amounted to $28 billion in trade […]
The U.S. exported 600,000 tons of steel in June, according to final Census data, a 5 percent slip from May, and down 34 percent from the same month one year ago. June exports were in line with the 2018 average (~610,000 tons), but down significantly compared to the past few years. This time last year, […]
The trade war with China escalated on Monday as China allowed its currency to weaken in retaliation for a new round of tariffs imposed by President Trump. The yuan fell to 7 per U.S. dollar, the lowest it has been in 11 years, making exports from China cheaper and more competitive versus the United States. […]
Steel shipments at Ternium Mexico were relatively flat in the second quarter, increasing 0.4 percent from the first quarter to 1.57 million metric tons. Sales of $1.37 billion slipped 3.9 percent from Q1 and fell 17 percent from Q2 2018. Steel prices have declined in the past three quarters in Mexico, mostly driven by a […]
By CRU Analyst Michelle Liu Rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China have driven one of the largest w/w falls in iron ore prices, a drop of $21 /t w/w to $98 /t. The U.S. president’s threat of imposing 10 percent tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports last Friday has escalated trade […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch On Friday, Aug. 2, the U.S. government announced 10 percent tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports that are not already covered by Section 301 (S301) tariffs. About 50 percent of the new tariffs cover steel-bearing machinery, while the rest are non-steel-containing items such as food, clothing, base metals […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices continued to decline in the past week as international steel prices continued to fall on a weak demand outlook for steel in the coming month. On Tuesday, Aug. 13, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $90.30 /t, down $7.70 /t w/w. Steel prices in […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: On Wednesday, President Trump tweeted that new tariffs would be imposed on U.S. imports from China, an escalation of the trade war that was launched in July 2018. The new tariffs, on most of the products not already […]
The government’s first estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019 was 2.1 percent, down from 3.1 percent in the first quarter. The current U.S. expansion is now the longest on record at 121 months dating back to June 2009. Last Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate of GDP growth […]