The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch After several weeks of steady Turkish scrap, import prices were stable last week at $225 /t CFR for HMS 80:20. We have assessed seven deals totaling about 274 kt, indicating a second week of strong scrap purchasing activity. Turkish scrap import prices have now reached a level that allows Turkish steel mills to export […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: As Washington continues to descend into trench warfare over Ukraine, Joe Biden, defense aid and subpoenas, the world continues to turn. It seems likely that soon, impeachment will take up all the oxygen and the ordinary business of government […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: These times can try our patience. This week was such a time. It featured a cornucopia of fast-paced events. They will probably end up affecting us all. I want to focus on two big issues: impeachment and foreign […]
The September Manufacturing ISM Report on Business showed further decline of the manufacturing sector. ISM’s PMI edged down 1.3 points to 47.8 from the August reading of 49.1. “This is the lowest reading since June 2009, the last month of the Great Recession, when the index registered 46.3 percent,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chairman of […]
The global manufacturing sector remains in contraction but is beginning to stabilize, says the latest report from J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose for a second month in a row reaching 49.7, although still below the 50 neutral point. “The global manufacturing PMI sent a message of stability in […]
The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019 at 2.01 percent was little changed from the first estimate. U.S. GDP is reported quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). There are three estimates. The first is released about 25 days after the end of the quarter and the second and third are […]
The global market share of U.S. scrap exports continues to increase, according to this quarterly analysis of data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the gyrations of the domestic scrap market, we should be aware of where the U.S. stands as a […]
Editor’s note: The Chinese government currently bars exports of ferrous scrap to other parts of the world to assure China of an adequate domestic supply. As this analysis by CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill points out, China’s economy will eventually generate a scrap supply that far exceeds its scrap consumption, opening up the doors to […]
There have been some discussions recently with articles written about the global scrap trade and China. China is the world’s largest steel producing nation with 50 percent (or greater) of the world’s steel production. A couple of years ago, I received information from one of my Chinese trading contacts about scrap steel being exported out […]
July apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,351,701 net tons, according to data recently released by the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. July apparent steel […]
BY CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch For the week ending Sept. 20, Turkish scrap import prices fell for the seventh consecutive week to $228 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, down $11 /t w/w. We assessed two deals from the UK totaling 37 kt of scrap. The current price is the lowest in the weekly price assessment on record and the lowest level […]
Scrap prices are heading down and could dip below the $200/GT mark as the gap between scrap supplies and demand continues to widen. With mill operating rates declining under 80 percent and scrap export markets dropping drastically, expect steel prices to follow suit, said scrap consultant John Harris, CEO of Aaristic Services. Scrap is the […]
By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain The mismatch between seaborne coal supply and demand deepened during the week, causing CRU to assess the Premium HCC $17 /t lower w/w at $128 /t, FOB Australia. Demand for seaborne coal in China, India and Europe was weak in the past week. The macroeconomic environment in India continues to […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The Fed cut interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting on Sept. 18, 2019, lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25bp to a range of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. This reduction in the Fed Funds rate was widely anticipated by markets and follows a 25bp rate cut in […]
Demand for sheet products is declining due to the weakness in manufacturing. Construction expenditures are showing signs of softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Total rolled product imports in August were down by 11.8 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis year over year. This follows the 15.3 percent decline in July on the same basis. This early look at August’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below.) This import analysis includes all […]
Do plans by U.S. mills to add millions of tons of new steelmaking capacity over the next few years make a price-killing supply glut inevitable? That’s a question very much open to debate, as shown by the spirited exchange between three leading analysts during Steel Market Update’s Steel Summit Aug. 28 in Atlanta. Despite some […]
So far, China has held its own in the prolonged trade war with the U.S., but August saw an unexpected decline in exports. China’s exports fell 1.0 percent in August after gaining 3.3 percent in July. Imports declined 5.6 percent, resulting in an overall trade surplus of $34.84 billion, said China’s General Administration of Customs. […]
The U.S. exported 620,598 tons of flat rolled steel in July, according to final Census data, a 4 percent rise from June, but down 5 percent from the same month one year ago. July exports were in line with the 2019 average of 611,019 tons, but down significantly compared to recent years. It was this […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Part one of our three-part series: What’s next for U.S. iron ore production? The U.S. is blessed with a wealth of natural resources, including oil, gas, gold, copper, timber and coal. In addition, the country has large iron ore deposits that have supported its steel industry for more than […]
As many of our trading company contacts have been telling SMU, finished steel imports have bottomed at just under 2 million short tons. Total foreign steel imports for the month of August are forecast to be 2.1 million net tons based on license data released on Tuesday of this week. Only 275,954 net tons are […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The last month has been interesting from a forecast standpoint given the reversal in the Fed’s monetary policy stance at the end of July, new developments in the U.S.-China trade war and a shift in currency policy in China. Through all this policy change, we continue to see a […]
The global manufacturing sector downturn continued to worsen in August. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted a 49.5 for its fourth month of contraction. More than half of the nations surveyed by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit had PMI readings below the neutral 50 mark last month, with Germany and the Czech Republic declining at the […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices have bounced back in the past week with a rally on Monday pushing prices back above $90 /t. Renewed market confidence resulted in futures on the Dalian commodity exchange hitting limit up in Monday trading. Steel prices in China have been stable throughout the week, which […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Manjot Singh China has been at the center of coal price upcycles that have taken place this millennium. The commodity supercycle that characterized the early-2000s was fueled by demand growth, especially in emerging markets like China. That bull market reached a peak in 2011 when slowing demand growth was met with […]
Contract negotiations between the United Auto Workers and Ford, GM and FCA are facing unwanted outside pressures. As a precautionary strike vote is being taken at UAW locals, the FBI reportedly raided homes of UAW presidents in Ohio, California, Wisconsin, Missouri and Michigan as part of a government investigation into bribery allegations. United Auto Workers […]
Demand for long products continues to be very strong, driven by the construction industry. Demand for sheet products is declining due to the weakness in manufacturing. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of […]