Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The Commerce Department has been active again on behalf of domestic petitioners seeking circumvention findings. On Monday, Commerce issued a preliminary finding of circumvention with respect to three countries (Costa Rica, Malaysia, and the United Arab Emirates). Two […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices bounced back in the past week with Tropical Cyclone Damien forcing Port Hedland and Rio Tinto’s two ports to shut for three to six days. This resulted in ~10 Mt of shipments taken out of the seaborne market. At the same time, the sentiment in the […]
The United States exported 534,724 tons of steel in December, according to final Commerce Department Census data, down 11 percent from November but up 3 percent from the same month one year ago. This is the second lowest export level in the past decade, just behind December 2018 when 519,099 tons were exported out of […]
Imports of steel rolled products have declined every month since May 2018, year over year, with the greatest decline in January 2020, according to government data. Total rolled product imports in January were down by 35.5 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This follows the 27.8 percent decrease in November on the same […]
By CRU Prices Analyst Estelle Tran, from CRU’s Bulk Ferro Alloys Monitor The steel market got a stronger than expected start to the year, lifting year-to-date U.S. steel mill capability utilization to 82.1 percent—the highest level since May 2019, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the […]
Global manufacturing performed slightly better in January, according the latest J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite PMI rose to a nine-month high of 50.4 from December’s reading of 50.1, although only slightly above the no-growth mark of 50.0. Consumer and intermediate goods led the increase as investment goods continued to contract further. Output rose […]
Editor’s note: The following commentary by economist Alan Beaulieu, president of ITR Economics, is excerpted from a recent blog, “A Good Day for Trade.” Beaulieu has been a popular presenter at several Steel Market Update Steel Summits and will speak once again at this year’s conference on Aug. 25 in Atlanta. Click here for more […]
Editor’s note: The following commentary by economist Alan Beaulieu, president of ITR Economics, is excerpted from a recent blog, “A Good Day for Trade.” Beaulieu has been a popular presenter at several Steel Market Update Steel Summits and will speak once again at this year’s conference on Aug. 25 in Atlanta. Click here for more […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison and Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Economic Outlook CRU Economics ran its fourth annual survey to gauge our clients’ expectations of economic conditions for 2020. We elicited responses across CRU’s full product portfolio and received information from 182 clients, working in 41 different countries. This feature presents the results […]
By Principal Analyst James Campbell, from CRU’s Steel Plate Products Market Outlook The coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan has led to Chinese New Year holidays being extended and transportation restrictions introduced in order to contain the spread of the virus. Steel demand is normally weak during this period, but production continues as usual. Every day of […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The first estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q4 2019 was 2.1 percent, unchanged from Q3. On a trailing 12-month basis, GDP grew at 2.32 percent in the fourth quarter. On […]
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement was signed into law by President Trump on Wednesday. The signing clears the way for Canada to begin the ratification process that is likely to be concluded in March. The president called the agreement the “largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved.” “Everybody said this was a deal that could […]
John Packard is traveling… The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak in China a global public health emergency earlier today. Six patients in the United States have been confirmed as infected by the potentially deadly virus…so far. Makes those seasonal sniffles you’re feeling even more disconcerting, doesn’t it? And what does it mean for […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen Given the importance of China to our industry, this Insight sets out the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus on commodity markets. Using the SARS episode as a benchmark, the impact on Chinese GDP and industrial production could be as large as 1 percent—but that estimate comes with a […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg, Principal Economist Lisa Morrison, Principal Analyst Josh Spoores and Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Iron Ore Market Outlook In a recent insight series, CRU highlighted some of the challenges facing the three U.S. iron ore producers, Cleveland-Cliffs, U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal. The location of the mines and pellet plants […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Crude oil production set another all-time record in the U.S. in October, but the rig count continues to decline. On Jan. 3, oil prices surged briefly on news of […]
In January, we have replaced the British pound in this report with the Vietnamese dong in recognition that Vietnam is now a much bigger player in the global steel market than is the UK. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 13 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months. In this […]
By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service The oil market in 2020 started with a bang—multiple in fact, over the skies of Baghdad. On Jan. 3, U.S. missiles killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani and four others. Iran vowed “severe revenge” and on Jan. 8 fired missiles at air […]
The Senate voted its approval of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in a sweeping 89-10 bipartisan vote on Thursday. The trade agreement now goes to President Trump for signature. The Canadian parliament is expected to follow suit, allowing the USMCA to be implemented later this year. The final agreement adds language addressing the internet, digital services and […]
Apparent U.S. steel supply slipped to 8.4 million net tons in November, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. November supply is now at a three-year low, the lowest seen since November 2016 when supply was 8.1 million tons. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is […]
The U.S. exported 601,290 tons of steel in November, according to final Census data, a 15 percent decrease from October and down 2 percent from the same month one year ago. This is the lowest level seen since June 2019. November exports were 3.5 percent below the 2019 average of 623,059 tons, and remain significantly […]
December’s licensed import volume for rolled steel products was the lowest since December 2009. Year over year, total rolled product imports in December were down by 27.8 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This follows the 27.4 percent decrease in November, 17.7 percent decrease in October and 15.5 percent decline in September on […]
By CRU Analyst James Campbell, from the Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook 2019 was a bad year for the steel industry. Prices and margins collapsed and, outside of China, demand contracted. However, the combination of a new restocking cycle and reduced output in many markets allowed producers to raise prices and margins at the end […]
Following the recent attacks in Iran, President Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iran including targeting 13 Iranian steel and mining companies. Additionally, sanctions will be imposed on three Seychelles-based entities, aluminum and copper companies and the Liberian-flagged and Chinese-owned vessel Hong Xun, known to transport metal products. “We are also designating Iran’s largest metals […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Commercial Metals Company is looking forward to a steady construction market in 2020 for its merchant bar and rebar products. “We are positioned to continue benefiting from the positive trends in our core markets and remain optimistic about the construction market, as many of the macro indicators we monitor point to resilience ahead,” said President […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Iron Ore Market Outlook Iron ore prices rose sharply in the past week as Chinese restocking has continued and concerns about a cyclone forming northeast of Pilbara have increased. On Tuesday, Jan. 7, CRU has assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $95.5 /t, up $4.5 /t […]
The Congressional Budget Office expects the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to result in higher than expected tariff revenue for the United States on motor vehicles and parts due to stricter rules of origin and labor value content requirements. Included in the revenue calculation is an estimated $3 billion in tariffs to be paid by automakers over the […]
By Peter Ghilchik, Head of CRU Multi Commodity Analysis and Production, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service CRU expects a return to commodity demand growth in 2020, albeit a weak recovery, as industrial production growth recovers to 2.2 percent; however, risk is heavily weighted to the downside. Economic uncertainty, weak demand and an increasing focus on […]
About half of the nations surveyed by J.P Morgan and IHS Markit ended the year with manufacturing PMIs in contraction, with conditions especially poor in the Eurozone. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 last month from 50.3 in November indicating business conditions remained weak at the end of 2019. The intermediate and […]