By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson, from the CRU Steel Monitor As expected, sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest market have fallen. Prices today, reflective of transactions booked last week, fell by $13-26 /s.ton w/w. For all sheet prices, we continue to hear of lower priced offers and expect that transaction prices will continue to […]
Global manufacturing continued its downturn in March exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The J.P. Morgan Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 from 47.1 in February due to a stabilization of business conditions in China. China’s PMI jumped from 40.3 in February to 50.1 in March as manufacturing activity returned to more normal conditions after new coronavirus […]
By CRU Credit Research Analyst Eduardo Tinti, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Last week iron ore prices increased, supported by news of mining bans in Canada and South Africa before being pulled down due to the worsening global demand outlook after the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led governments around the world to adopt […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Steel Monitor CRU has massively downgraded forecast GDP growth in China to 1-2 percent for 2020 and we now expect the USA and Eurozone to fall into recession. Global GDP growth is now expected to be 1 percent for the year, an effective global recession. While economic […]
In the past week, iron ore saw its biggest drop of the year as prices fell by nearly $10 /t. The main reason for the fall was an escalation of Covid-19 cases outside of China, which caused concerns of iron ore demand in key steelmaking regions such as Europe and northeast Asia. At the same […]
Global scrap trade has been trending down for two years and in Q4 2019 the U.S. share increased to 26.8 percent, the highest since Q1 2013. This is a quarterly analysis using data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) in the UK. Some nations are slow to report, which results in the analysis […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: I hope you all are well and complying with the stay-at-home restrictions. It’s tough, but imagine how our grandparents coped with the flu epidemic in 1918-19 with no internet and no Amazon. We will get through this. It’s […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Trade is only a part of the national and global response to the pandemic that is now sweeping the world—but in our interconnected world, it’s a pretty important part. So far, it’s not nearly as bad as other […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Activity in steel end-use sectors in China is recovering as per CRU’s base case, but evidence suggests that demand may start to run ahead of our base case in the near term. Encouraged by government stimulus measures, there is a lot of optimism […]
Mill shipments of sheet products in January were the highest since August 2019. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). This month we are producing a new report for long products and will follow this […]
Demand for long products declined by 3.5 percent in the three months through January, but rebar was up by 9.6 percent. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). It summarizes total steel supply by product […]
By CRU Analyst Arshiya Sibia and Research Manager Paul Butterworth, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Current information from our China team shows that steel demand is closely tracking our base case forecast for the impact of Covid-19, though steel production remains slightly higher than we had forecast. While our forecast was for steel demand to return […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) rose slightly by 1.3 percent m/m to 206.4 (see chart). While this is broadly stable it bucked the trend compared to steel markets, which came under relatively more price pressure. Structurally, most markets were similar in condition to […]
Apparent U.S. steel supply jumped to 9.5 million net tons in January, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. January apparent supply is now on the high-side compared to the last few years, a nice recovery from November’s three-year low and other late-2019 lows. Apparent steel supply, […]
By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham, additional analysis by Ippolito Tarabini and Will Young The oil market is currently facing a large degree of uncertainty. Oil prices could feasibly remain around $40/bbl for a significant period of time. Three key judgements will determine CRU’s oil price forecast for 2020: (I) the extent to which […]
New Commerce Department data shows the United States exported 647,156 tons of steel in January, up 21 percent from December and up 2 percent from the same month one year ago. While up dramatically over one month prior, recall that December 2019 was the second lowest export level in the past decade (just ahead of […]
Imports of rolled products have declined every month since May 2018 year over year with the greatest declines in each month December 2019 through February 2020. Total rolled product imports in February were down by 26.7 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This follows the 26.3 percent decrease in December and 29.6 percent […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Two pieces of news have led us to lower our global forecasts for 2020. First, disruptions caused by the Covid-19 epidemic are expected to lead to a sharp downturn in near-term global growth, followed by a sharp recovery later in the year. […]
This report is based on data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for personal use) and “Commercial” (light vehicles less than 6.0 tonnes gross vehicle weight rating, heavy trucks and buses are not included). In this report we will briefly describe light […]
By Senior Coal Analyst Ben Carstein, from CRU’s Metallurgical Coal Market Outlook Despite weakening fundamentals in the Chinese steel market, the seaborne metallurgical coal market, and hence prices, remain supported. Chinese HRC and rebar prices are up about RMB90 /t over the week. However, we believe this largely reflects trader purchases that have not been […]
Heavy equipment manufacturer John Deere sees early signs of improvement in the U.S. agriculture sector, following the passage of USMCA and the Phase 1 trade agreement with China. “U.S. farm cash receipts are expected to increase in 2020, aided in part by the recently announced third tranche of market facilitation payments, which totaled $3.6 billion, […]
By CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth and Analyst Zhenzhen Jiang, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service The loss of steel demand from Covid-19 has pushed Chinese steelmakers to either reduce utilization or idle capacity but, as steel stocks at mills reach critical levels, they will increasingly seek to offload in the export market. Decisions by […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
By CRU Multi-Commodity Analyst Zanna Aleksahhina As of Feb. 19, the outbreak of coronavirus Covid-19 has killed more than 2,000 people, infected over 75,000 others, and put millions in self-isolation. Aside from the human tragedy, the virus poses a real threat to the Chinese economy. The automotive industry will be hit hard, and we expect […]
By Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Material Monitor Iron ore prices rebounded in the past week as arrivals of seaborne iron ore to China were at their weakest level in over six months. Port stocks in China fell w/w and talks about further stimulus and a drop in the number of new Covid-19 […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Oil and gas prices declined from our previous update. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., was $49.59 on Feb. 10, down from $58.17/ barrel in […]
In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 pre-eminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 10 of the 16 currencies in the last three months. In January we replaced the British pound in this report with the Vietnamese dong in recognition that Vietnam […]
In three months through December, demand for total rolled products declined by 6.1 percent. This Premium analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC). It is meant as a more in-depth look compared […]
The office of the U.S. Trade Representative released a scathing report detailing what the U.S. believes is wrong with the dispute mechanisms of the World Trade Organization. In 174 pages, the department lays out the alleged failures of the Appellate Body to conduct business by “agreed rules.” “As detailed in this Report, the Appellate Body […]
Apparent U.S. steel supply increased to 8.8 million net tons in December, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. While up over the previous three months, December supply remains low compared to the last two years. Last month we reported that November supply was at a three-year low, […]