U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.0% annual rate in the third quarter, the slowest pace in more than a year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Delta variant is likely to blame for slowing U.S. economic growth in the third quarter. Consumer spending was stifled as the new strain of […]
North American auto assemblies rebounded in August after light vehicle production hit a 14-month low the prior month. Despite the increase, the impact of the chip shortage continued to worsen, diminishing vehicle inventories and pushing regional sales down during the month, according to LMC Automotive (LMCA). Total North American vehicle production, including personal and commercial […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz While Section 232 has gotten a lot of attention in the last few years, the antidumping and countervailing duty laws have been the mainstay of protecting domestic industries from steel to aluminum to solar panels to auto parts for many years. In the runup to the 2020 election, the Commerce […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz The Section 232 tariffs are uppermost on people’s minds again, according to questions I’m getting from readers. My view is that the tariffs (and quotas and “monitoring”) have remained because of politics and the lack of ideas for reconciling the irreconcilable. We need a policy that protects domestic steel (and […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Iron ore prices have continued to fall with the commodity now reaching $93.0/dmt, a $31.0/dmt fall in the past week. Chinese demand remains weak and seasonal improvements in construction activity have thus far not materialized in any significant improvement in market conditions for […]
Prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials tracked in this SMU analysis decreased over the last 30 days. Through Sept. 17, iron ore prices stumbled 21% in one month’s time, busheling scrap prices declined 12%, pig iron prices fell 11%, and shredded scrap prices declined 3%. Coking coal prices jumped 49% in that […]
By CRU Senior Editor Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Steel sheet prices were either little changed or fell w/w across most of the globe, with the U.S. market now joining in the global cooldown. Prices in the U.S. fell w/w for the first time in over year, albeit the decline was only […]
Tonnage moved across the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway has risen significantly thanks to a strong showing from vessels carrying iron ore and steel. Total cargo stood at 22.8 million tons (20.7 million metric tonnes) through the end of August – the midpoint of the Great Lakes shipping season – up more than 5% from 21.7 […]
July apparent steel supply increased 312,000 tons over June to 9.70 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is now the highest supply level seen since January 2019, a 30-month record. July supply is up 2.73 million tons compared to the same month […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker China has been wrestling with inflationary tendencies in its aluminum market for some time: Spot Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) high aluminum is at $3,516 per ton; that compares to $2,139 a year ago and $1,849 five years ago. The Chinese State Reserve Board (SRB) is releasing part of its […]
The end of summer marks a return to normal in Washington. Congress is back, and so are the president’s cabinet and advisors. This is the time of year for officials to float new ideas. In the international trade arena, American business groups grew increasingly impatient with the lack of ideas on resetting the economic relationship […]
U.S. steel exports declined 3% in July to 756,000 tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce data. Although down from the month prior, July levels remain relatively strong compared to recent months. Recall that June saw the second highest monthly export level in the last three years (778,000 tons), just behind the April 2021 high of 790,000 […]
There’s a good chance the Section 232 tariffs on steel imports from the European Union could be replaced by a tariff rate quota (TRQ) as soon as November as a result of trade talks now under way between officials from the U.S. and EU. The EU is strongly opposed to the Trump-era “national security” tariffs […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Regional sheet markets have continued to exhibit divergent trends for not only prices, but also production and demand. The lone continent where sheet prices have yet to fall from a peak is North America. All other markets now have prices below their recent […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Richard Lu, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor In a recent Insight titled “Iron ore at $140 /dmt – what’s driving the fall?”, we explained that weak demand in China has caused a sharp iron ore price fall and we expect the downtrend to persist for the rest of the year. […]
New orders, production and prices grew in August, while employment contracted and supply backlogs expanded, said the Institute for Supply Management in its August 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The Manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 percentage point in August to 59.9%, edging higher and indicating expansion in the overall economy for the 15th consecutive month […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an estimated 6.6% in the second quarter of 2021, slightly faster than the 6.5% annual rate previously forecast, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth for the U.S. economy since the pandemic downturn, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The second estimate was adjusted higher thanks […]
Auto assemblies in North America plummeted in July, revealing the extensive impact the semiconductor scarcity is having on carmakers. Regionally, the annual production rate fell 21.5% or by nearly 270,000 vehicles in July versus the prior month, according to LMC Automotive (LMCA). The more alarming figure may be that July’s annual production rate was down 21.8% […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker The fundamentals in the aluminum market are continuing to tighten as we complete the third quarter. Growing Deficit in 2021 Driven by Chinese and Canadian Production Excursions CRU has substantially increased the size of the global deficit for 2021, moving it from a 240,000-ton surplus to a deficit of 1,180,000 […]
In the near term, ferrous scrap prices are heading down. But in the long term – with the proliferation of electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking around the globe putting added pressure on scrap supplies – the price trend for scrap is definitely pointing upward. The cost of scrap and other metallics is of high interest […]
I was pleased to see many of you this past week in Atlanta at the SMU Steel Summit. It is certainly one of the largest (and most significant) steel conferences in the United States. This year was a first – a hybrid conference, with about 800 in-person attendees and 300 virtual. I doubt it will […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor After rising at end-August, iron ore prices have started pointing downward again in the past week as Chinese demand remains tepid while seaborne supply has been at the strongest level since end-June. Iron ore is currently trading at $135.5 /dmt, down by $18.5 /dmt […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen A disappointing outlook for U.S. Q3 growth, and the problems in China’s construction sector, have led us to downgrade our forecast for 2021 world growth from 5.8% to 5.4%. Our forecast for 2021 growth in Industrial Production has been revised […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service, Nov. 18 The world economy is facing multiple headwinds. Supply-chain problems continue to hold back industrial sectors and elevate inflation. Meanwhile, an energy crisis is adding to the pressure on manufacturers and consumers. On the demand side, the biggest risk remains the Chinese […]
We are seeing (again) the disruption that unexpected news can bring. Just when we thought we were out of the woods (no pun intended), we see a resurgence of hospitalizations from COVID, the fall of Afghanistan, perhaps the unluckiest country in the world, a major earthquake in Haiti, perhaps the second unluckiest, and a hurricane […]
By CRU Senior Editor Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) fell by 4.8% in August to 393.8, making it the first reading below the 400 level since May. Price falls for scrap and HBI were similar in scale, but pig iron prices have moved notably lower. Demand […]
June apparent steel supply rose 270,000 tons over May to 9.38 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is the highest suppy level seen since January 2020, surpassing the May 2021 recent-high of 9.11 million tons. June supply is up by 2.47 million […]
U.S. steel exports rose 5% in June to 778,000 tons, according to new U.S. Department of Commerce trade data. This marks the second highest monthly export level in the last three years, just behind the April 2021 high of 790,000 tons. Of our six monitored product groups, four products declined month-over-month and two increased. Recall that 2020 […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The iron ore price decline continues as demand for spot cargoes in China is exceptionally weak, while we have started seeing signs of improving supply from Australia. On Tuesday, Aug. 10, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $160.0 /dmt, a $25.0 […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Prices fell w/w in southern Europe and China but were stable in Asia and up somewhat in India. Prices in the U.S. again were the outlier this week, rising by three times as much as anywhere else. In fact, the differential between U.S. […]