By Matthew Abrams, Analyst, CRU Group Now that we have seen the first steps of an invasion into Ukraine by Russian forces, the business concerns shift to the possibility of sanctions and how severe they might be. While initially the aluminum market itself is not expected to be directly targeted, there are various potential and […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a 7% annualized rate in the fourth quarter as businesses stepped up their restocking of supplies, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advanced estimate. This second review and upward revision to fourth-quarter GDP growth by the BEA reflected more business spending on nonresidential structures and investment […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
By CRU Multi Commodity Analyst Alex Christopher and Research Analyst James Mills, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, Feb. 17 The only certainty about the heightened state of East-West relations playing out over Ukraine is that the stakes are high. The gulf between Russian security concerns and guiding principles of NATO, the EU, and western liberalism are […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg and Senior Coal Analyst Dmitry Popov, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, Feb. 24 On Feb. 24, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine as President Vladmir Putin ordered a large-scale “specialized military operation.” Russian troops entered Ukrainian territory – from Belarus in the north, the separatist-controlled regions in the […]
For those of you who don’t pay attention to such things, today’s date is 2/22/22…. On Monday, Cleveland-Cliffs announced on their website their intention of indefinitely idling the #4 blast furnace at Indiana Harbor, and a $50 per ton ($2.50/cwt) price increase on orders slated for production in April 2022. Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves spoke […]
The Port of Los Angeles reported its busiest January ever, and data from port operations suggests the backup of container ships off the coast may be easing. The port processed 865,595 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in January, a 3.6% increase compared to last year. It was the highest volume in the port’s 115-year history and […]
The Tampa Steel Conference has wrapped up, and I thank all of you who attended and who took the time to catch up with me on stage or along the sidelines. Below are five themes that I took away from the event. If I were to sum it up in a sentence, it’s this: Steel […]
Ferrous scrap has been described as “the new precious metal,” as mills all over the world invest in scrap-fed electric arc furnaces as a means of lowering harmful greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, prime scrap may prove to be even more rare and prized than most realize. In the United States alone, producers will add 5.3 […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group We all read the same financial press. I am sure the readers share the feeling that it is always interesting when you hear experts opining about something in your chosen area of expertise. I was reminded of this when reading recent remarks from Jeff Currie, the widely respected and […]
U.S. apparent steel supply levels slipped 3% from November to December, down 286,000 net tons to 9.48 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. Recall that September 2021 saw the highest monthly supply level in over six years, going back to January 2015 when supply surpassed 10 […]
2022 is shaping up to be a good year for energy tubulars. With the U.S. economy near pre-pandemic levels, demand is up for oil and gas – and the oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe needed to deliver them. Rising energy prices are spurring increased drilling, while declining steel prices are lowering the […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Feb. 9 The global sheet market often exhibits price trends that vary by region. Occasionally, prices do move in the same direction, though on these occasions, prices typically reflect a unified trend of global costs or inventory change. In the current sheet […]
By CRU Economist Veronika Akhmadieva and CRU Senior China Economist Henry Hao from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook, Feb. 14 The last day of 2021 marked the end of the two-year period during which China agreed to increase imports of certain goods and services from the U.S. by a combined $200 billion. These targets have been […]
Total mill shipments of steel products rebounded in December to 8.985 million tons, a 7.8% increase over November’s 8.334 million tons, and the highest monthly total for 2021. Apparent supply saw a 5.0% boost in December, rising for the second straight month following repeated decreases in September and October. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment […]
December U.S. steel exports fell 10% from the month prior to 654,000 net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce data. While the last few months have seen declining export levels, the 12-month moving average through December is now at a 33-month high. December exports are up 6% compared to levels one year […]
North American auto assemblies expanded in January after falling to 2021’s second lowest monthly total in December. January’s production total was up 12.6% sequentially, but down 4.1% from the same month last year. Supply-chain and microchip limitations continue to impact the automotive sector despite broad production improvements across North American automakers. As a result, assembly […]
Were it not for persistently strong steel demand, the plunging steel prices would be an unmitigated disaster. About 70% of the service center and manufacturing execs responding to SMU’s survey a week ago described demand for their products as stable. Another 20% even said they see demand improving. Just 10% have registered declines in demand […]
By CRU Research Analyst Aaron Kearney-Keaveny, from CRU’s Iron Ore Market Outlook, Feb. 8 The iron ore price has been driven up over the last week, despite sparse activity during and after the Chinese holiday. The rise in price primarily came from traders who have been increasing their stocks in anticipation of higher prices, not […]
The United States and Japan are expected to announce this afternoon a new deal on Section 232 regarding Japanese steel exports to the U.S., according to sources familiar with the matter. The new agreement will be a tariff rate quota, or TRQ, broadly similar to one negotiated between the U.S. and the EU last year. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Given the fact that the standoff in Ukraine is ongoing, we thought it appropriate to stay on this theme of Russian aluminum supply and how the Russians try to overcome sanctions. The Ties that Bind Us Together – Russia and China Russia and China have a long association going […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute sent a letter to House members Wednesday urging them to support the America COMPETES Act of 2022, which aims to enhance U.S. competitiveness to counter alleged nonmarket policies and practices by China. The legislation will strengthen the U.S. trade remedy laws by making more tools available to obtain timely […]
While the United States and the European Union have been working to resolve their dispute over punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum and re-establish historical transatlantic trade flows, their focus has shifted away from Section 232 duties and towards a carbon-based sectoral arrangement. The plan: to negotiate a global agreement to address carbon intensity and steel […]
January marked the fifth consecutive month of declining steel prices, following a year-long streak of continuous price increases. Hot rolled prices declined $200 per ton throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,335 per ton ($66.75 per cwt) as of Tuesday, Jan. 25. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products remains at Lower since its mid-October adjustment. January […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz We are hearing a lot about “managed trade” these days from economists, pundits and politicians. It’s time to step back and think about the pros and cons of that concept. First, we should define the term “managed trade.” Trade is usually conducted between private parties for their mutual gain. Governments […]
When I was a kid, watching the Olympics was a big feel-good event. The family would all gather round the TV eating popcorn and rooting for the Americans as they competed against the world’s best athletes for a medal and their photo on a Wheaties box. There was something pure and uplifting about the whole […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group In early December, we first sounded the alarm about the threat to aluminum supply should sanctions be re-applied to the Russians. It’s appropriate to update the situation now given some other changes in the aluminum supply-demand equation. European Primary Production Curtailments are Bigger and Deficit is Larger Higher power […]
The U.S. steel industry has suffered tremendously from unfairly traded goods over the years. Many of the current antidumping and countervailing duty cases stem from import surges around five years ago and are coming up for review soon to determine if they should be extended. “2022 is a critical year for sunset reviews (see chart […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a much better than expected pace to close out 2021. At an annual 6.9% rate in the fourth quarter, growth was driven by sizeable boosts in inventories and consumer spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advanced estimate. Despite signs that the acceleration may have tailed […]
By CRU Senior Prices Analyst Estelle Tran, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service, Jan. 20 U.S. sheet prices fell sharply in the last month, as mills had issues filling their order books and offered steep discounts to convince buyers not to book imports. Multiple buyers said that imports were $400 /s.ton lower than current domestic […]