The US economy closed out 2021 by expanding at an annual pace of 6.9% from October through December, a slight downgrade from previous estimates, according to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This agency’s third and final review showed the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) up 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the […]
Too much went on last week to limit this week’s column to a single issue. The Ukraine war touches everything these days, including almost all recent developments on the trade front. It was a week that, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, was “not entirely uneventful.” First, the NATO summit meeting took on issues that have divided Europe […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook, March 21 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through the world economy. What does war mean for the world economy? We outlined three scenarios in terms of severity of impact from the war itself, but most crucially from sanctions and the response to those […]
The U.S.-UK agreement to ease Section 232 tariffs was lauded by some industry groups and union representatives for promoting fair trade. But others questioned whether certain unusual provisions in the deal might cause trouble. And still others said the deal didn’t do enough to remove tariffs from a close U.S. ally. Recall that on Tuesday the United States […]
The United States and the United Kingdom have agreed to a deal to ease Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The contours of the agreement match what Steel Market Update reported earlier in the day on Tuesday, March 22. “Today’s historic deal is a testament to that ambitious goal and will benefit America’s steel […]
The Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) are expected to announce an agreement with the United Kingdom to ease Section 232 tariffs on its steel exports, according to sources familiar with the matter. The deal, slated to go into effect on June 1, is expected to be announced at approximately […]
By CRU Research Analyst Aaron Kearney-Keaveny, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, March 22 In the past week, the iron ore price has been influenced by two notable shocks, a supply shock from lost CIS volumes, which has been occurring since the invasion, and a demand shock from China after lockdowns created bearish sentiments. Improving […]
The war in Ukraine continues to impact the volatility in steel markets around the world. Here in the United States, we have seen steel buyers coming off the sidelines as they look to protect themselves against the possibility of being short steel. This despite flat-rolled steel inventories being at 2.72 months’ supply at the end […]
North American auto assemblies grew by 8.0% in February, expanding for the second straight month despite ongoing supply hurdles. Though last month’s production was 2.2% higher year on year, it was 21.1% below the same pre-pandemic period in 2020. Despite February’s production gains, the industry was met with strong supply-related headwinds. The ongoing supply-chain and […]
By CRU Analyst Diego Giangreco, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, March 16 Brazilian distributor sheet prices fell month on month in March due to weak demand, while mills increased their prices in February or stopped giving discounts to match the trends in the international markets. Before the invasion of Ukraine, we were expecting a downward trend in […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins, part of CRU’s steel series, March 14. The EU announced it will “prohibit the import of key goods in the iron and steel sector from the Russian Federation.” We do not yet have details of what goods these are, but we can look at trade flows between the two […]
U.S. apparent steel supply levels slipped 1% from December to January, down 120,000 net tons to 9.36 million tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. Recall that just last September, the market saw the highest monthly supply level in over six years (9.92 million tons). Apparent […]
U.S. steel exports rose 6% in January to 691,000 net tons, a partial recovery following December’s 10% drop, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce data. While the last few months have seen declining export levels, the 12-month moving average through January has reached a 34-month high. January exports are 3% higher than levels […]
Total mill shipments of steel products fell in January to 8.153 million tons, a 9.4% decline from December’s 8.995 million tons, 2021’s strongest monthly performance. Apparent supply also fell in January, down 7.6% versus the prior month, and unable to keep the upward trajectory seen during the final quarter of 2021. This analysis is based on steel […]
By CRU Research Analyst Christopher Dix and Analysts Diego Giangreco and Tiago Vespoli, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, March 10 Pig iron prices have increased following disruption to CIS supply. The global pig iron market is short of supply as Russian exports are difficult to replace. Black Sea freight options are now very limited, […]
By CRU Analyst Chris Bandman, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, March 16 The war in Ukraine is having widespread and deleterious effects on the global steel markets, but no one region has been more heavily affected than Europe. Steel prices in the region have soared to unseen heights and continue to rise on a daily basis. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group We digress from the woes of aluminum supply this week to comment on the LME nickel market, which has redefined volatility with a capital “V.” LME nickel has exploded due to a massive Chinese speculative position amidst Russian uncertainty. Nickel fundamentals have been tightening for some time. In 2020, […]
In his remarks during Wednesday’s Community Chat, Johnny Sjöström, the top executive at SSAB Special Steels, suggested that the fighting in Ukraine will make nations more gun-shy about becoming too dependent on their foreign trading partners. Nations in Europe and many other parts of the world are scrambling to maintain production without the exports of […]
“What a difference a war makes.” No disrespect meant to the suffering people of Ukraine, but more than one respondent to SMU’s survey this week noted the big effect the war is having on global steel prices. Steel sheet had lost nearly 50% of its value in the six months from last September to February. […]
The war in Ukraine has triggered what may be the largest monthly increase in scrap prices ever seen with shredded scrap trading in March at around $600/GT and prime scrap at $700/GT – up by $125-175/GT over February, sources tell Steel Market Update. Market participants were expecting modestly higher scrap prices in March following declines […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, March 9 The CRUspi moved higher m/m as war in Ukraine broke steel supply chains. While prices in the USA were down m/m, this downward trajectory has now halted. Elsewhere, buyers are scrambling to secure enough steel and steelmaking raw materials before prices […]
By Trade Attorney Lewis Leibowitz (Editor’s note: The following views are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Steel Market Update.) A bit over a week into the new world order (i.e., the Russian invasion of Ukraine) and things are proceeding, but slowly. We have all been following the conflict—but […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Two weeks ago, I described how the aluminum industry would not run out of metal supply in 2022 despite the fears of some. Fast forward to today, and we now have the worst case scenario of the war in Ukraine likely leading to Russia being a pariah in the […]
Europe will suffer substantial economic consequences from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the Russian economy will be hurt by the array of sanctions imposed by the West. But the United States should emerge relatively unscathed from the “economic mayhem” caused by Russia’s aggression in Eastern Europe, unless the war escalates dramatically, predict the experts at […]
I continue to watch what is happening in Europe, the Middle East and in Asia as it relates to the flow of steel-and steel-related commodities that normally come from Russia and the Ukraine. One of my experienced trading contacts was wondering if the Russians will begin flooding China with cheap steel. (Wouldn’t that be special?) […]
A lot has happened in the world since my last article. Please bear with me as there is much to talk about. First, my thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine, and for that matter the innocent people in Russia who want nothing to do with Putin’s war. The world order is […]
February marked month six of declining steel prices, following a 12-month streak of continuous price increases. Hot rolled prices declined $215 per ton throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,020 per ton at the end of February (recall our HR average this week declined another $20 to $1,000 per ton). The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products was […]
The fog of war. That’s what we’re all dealing with now. Even in steel as realization grows that the war in Ukraine will have consequences here in North America too. The exact contours are still uncertain. We know that pig iron prices are up sharply, and that concerns about shortages are mounting – not just […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins and Research Analyst Christopher Dix, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service, Feb. 28. Contributors Erik Hedborg, Dmitry Popov, Ryan McKinley and Clare Hanna. Following the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, we set out what positions Russia has currently in the export market through the steel value chain. In the short term […]
By CRU Multi Commodity Analyst Alex Christopher and Research Analyst James Mills, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, March 3 The sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine will have direct and indirect implications for commodity markets, and their impact will be felt by everyone involved along the length of commodity value chains. […]