The buzz about the war in Ukraine has shifted. For the first three months of the conflict, Ukraine was hailed for a valiant struggle against a strong Russian foe. This valor is part of a larger struggle—the preservation of peace against the threat of violent conquest of weak nations by stronger ones. The stakes could […]
The rally was fun while it lasted, but new capacity delayed in large part because of Covid has arrived or soon will, popular analyst Timna Tanners said. And it will coincide with some demand weakness. The result: “steelmageddon” (aka “sheet storm”) might have been delayed. But it has finally arrived, she said. “Here we are with capacity starting […]
By CRU Research Managers Sarah Macnaughton and Paul Butterworth, and contribution from CRU Sustainability Analysts Zsombor Garzo International trade is an essential part of the global steel industry, with over 20% of steel production traded today. However, as the world moves towards decarbonization, CRU finds that established trade flows are at risk. The green transition […]
The World Trade Organization just concluded its 12th Ministerial Conference since the launch of the ill-fated Doha Development Agenda in 2001. The conference stayed in session past its scheduled end, and it reached agreements that surprised many WTO observers. A lot of credit goes to WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala of Nigeria, who kept the ministers […]
By CRU Senior China Economist Henry Hao, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook and China Macro Monthly In May, overall economic activity in China has improved marginally as the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions led to the resumption of production in late May. Export and infrastructure investment have regained momentum. However, prospects for construction remain weak. While the contraction […]
North American auto assemblies improved by 5.9% in May, after shrinking by 15.8% the month prior – the first decline all year. And though ongoing supply hurdles continue, North American production has improved since bottoming out last December. May’s results are 14.4% higher year-on-year (YoY), but still 17.5% below the pre-pandemic period of May 2019. […]
Total mill shipments of steel products slipped in April following a slight uptick the month prior. April’s mill shipments totaled 8.12 million tons, 2.6% decline from March’s 8.34 million tons. Apparent supply also fell in April, down 4.7% versus the prior month. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel […]
US apparent steel supply eased from March to April, declining 4% to 9.09 million net tons, according to the latest US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Recall that supply reached a six-year high last September at 9.92 million tons, declining each month through February. Supply rebounded 14% in March […]
Ukraine has implemented an export ban on energy-related materials, but pig iron has been excluded from that ban. As of June 10, natural gas exports are prohibited by Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers, as are exports of anthracite coal including briquettes, pellets, and similar solid fuels derived from coal. Coking coal, however, has been excluded from […]
US steel exports declined 2% in April to 830,000 net tons, falling from the 45-month high seen in March, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. On a 12-month moving average, April exports have now risen to a 39-month record high. Total April exports are 9% higher than levels seen one year ago. As shown in the graph […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Global Deficit Reduced Again The headline on aluminum fundamentals is that the deficit is shrinking again. We now believe that the global deficit will be about 700,000 metric tons compared to 1,000,000 metric tons in April. This deficit is exclusively held in the World ex-China, as we believe China […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, June 8 The CRUspi plummeted again month-on-month in June by over 12.3%, which is a larger drop than in May. This makes it the third-largest percentage point drop on record and the second largest in terms of total points. The supply shock caused by […]
The Biden administration, picking up where the “America First” Trump administration left off, extols the virtues of increased production here at home. There are many advantages to this approach, the president says. Increased production in the US will diminish reliance on China in critical materials for electric vehicles (rare earth metals and lithium, for example). […]
Several of you, including some senior executives, have told me recently that I’m being too pessimistic about pricing. I’m not sure what to say about that. It gives me no joy to write about prices falling. No doubt it hurts those holding inventory to see it devalued. But me not writing about prices falling doesn’t […]
Nucor Corp.’s $3 billion acquisition of CHI Overhead Doors, its largest deal ever, represents a shift away from the company’s traditional roots as a steelmaker. “We absolutely want to pivot from being just a steelmaker to a manufacturing company,” Nucor president and CEO Leon Topalian said. That’s notable because Nucor is the largest steelmaker in the […]
Prices are down across the board this week. That’s not new if you’ve been paying attention lately. Price increases are often announced. Decreases rarely are. What’s new is Nucor’s almost aggressively transparent pricing strategy – announcing not only price increases but also flat and decreasing prices. That is new on the sheet and plate side […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Puneet Paliwal, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service, May 23 The Indian government’s sudden move to levy a 15% tax on most exported steel products has surprised the steel industry. While an attempt has been made to soften the impact by exempting import tariff on coking coal/coke and raising export tax […]
Tariffs on China put in place under the Trump administration are under review now because Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 requires it after four years. I thought it was surprising that President Biden continued the “China tariffs” after criticizing them during the 2020 presidential campaign. But it is not too surprising. The tariffs […]
Alan Beaulieu Comments, Stanislav Kinchenko Webinar, Steel Prices, Events SMU’s Michael Cowden and David Schollaert are at the Boy Scout Dinner in Chicago this evening (Thursday). Steel Market Update is a supporter of the event which has been hosted by the metals industry for 50 years. If you have never attended the dinner, I highly […]
Three months of war in Ukraine have wreaked havoc on the country’s iron and steel industry and caused repercussions across the global economy, but industry and the country of Ukraine continue to fight back. In this week’s SMU Community Chat, Stanislav Zinchenko, CEO of the GMK Center, spoke with us on the impact Russia’s invasion […]
North American auto assemblies shrank by 15.8% in April, falling for the first time in 2022 as ongoing supply hurdles mount. Despite the recent decline, North American production has improved since bottoming out last December. April’s results are just 4.6% higher year-on-year (YoY), and still 14.4% below the pre-pandemic period of April 2019. North American […]
US apparent steel supply rebounded from February to March, rising 14% to 9.51 million tons, according to the latest US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Recall that supply reached a six-year high last September at 9.92 million tons, declining each month thereafter and reaching an 11-month low in February (8.37 million […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group The LME cash price for high grade aluminum continues to give ground, with prices at $2,715 per metric ton versus $2,861 per ton last week. There is still a lot of gloom and doom out there. Fear factor over demand is dominating price discovery Here are a few of […]
Total mill shipments of steel products recovered in March following repeated declines at the start the year. March’s mill shipments totaled 8.342 million tons, a 9% increase from February’s 7.655 million tons. Apparent supply also surged in March, up 12.9% versus the prior month, and expanding for the first time in three months. This analysis is based […]
US steel exports jumped 16% in March to 843,000 net tons, now the highest monthly level seen since June 2018, according to the latest US Department of Commerce data. On a 12-month moving average, March exports continue to hold onto a 3-year record high at 741,000 tons per month. Total March exports are 7% higher than levels seen […]
The US will for one year lift Section 232 tariffs from Ukrainian steel, the Commerce Department said. The move is necessary to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and because steel plays an outsized role in the Ukrainian economy, Commerce said in a press release on Monday, May 9. Case in point: Steel employs […]
ArcelorMittal predicts that global steel consumption will “contract slightly” in 2022, a departure from prior forecasts of modest growth. The Luxembourg-based steelmaker now expects global consumption to contract by as much as 1% this year. It had previously forecast of global steel consumption growth of as much as 1%. “Market conditions are currently strong although […]
For the first four months of this year, the US and global economies have endured one shock after another. It’s hard to know what to expect whether you are running a business, regulating an industry, or feeding a family. This past week, the government announced that the US economy shrank in the first quarter at […]
Housing’s share of the economy edged higher at the start of 2022 due in part to a surprise drop in GDP growth. For the first quarter of 2022, overall GDP growth declined at a 1.4% annual rate, driven by increased inventories and a jump in imports, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ analysis […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the aluminum market has fixated on potential sanctions on Russia’s 3+ million metric tons of annual exports. So far, those sanction have not materialized. Several major players have announced their intention to suspend new business with Russia. Emphasis on “new business.” […]