By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The spread of the Delta variant, plus some disappointing data from the U.S., have led us to slightly revise down our forecast for 2021 GDP growth from 6.1% to 5.9%. Growth in industrial production […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen A disappointing outlook for U.S. Q3 growth, and the problems in China’s construction sector, have led us to downgrade our forecast for 2021 world growth from 5.8% to 5.4%. Our forecast for 2021 growth in Industrial Production has been revised […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest market have continued to rise, though the rate of increase has slowed since the end of May. The price of HR coil has increased $21 /s.ton w/w and is now $126 /s.ton higher than our assessment on […]
The U.S. labor market saw its best monthly performance in nearly a year in July, reported the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The latest data shows a flood of 943,000 new workers added to payrolls in July, as the American economy roared into midsummer. With just under 3 million new jobs added from May through July, the […]
Orders for manufactured durable goods rose slightly in June, slowing the upward momentum seen the month prior, reported the U.S. Census Bureau. Orders for cars, appliances and other durable goods rose by 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted $257.6 billion in June, weaker than expected and much less than the 3.2% growth seen the month before. […]
NLMK USA joined the growing ranks of steelmakers posting massively higher second-quarter earnings on solid demand and record-high steel prices. The U.S. subsidiary of NLMK Group – Russia’s largest steelmaker – recorded EBITDA of $213 million in the second quarter of 2021, up more than threefold from $65 million in the first quarter and an […]
U.S. industrial production, manufacturing and durable goods orders continue to show improvement from the coronavirus pandemic downturn, indicating a strengthening manufacturing sector. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. Note that some of the historical data below has been adjusted by the U.S. Census Bureau […]
U.S. steel product shipments rebounded in May, up 3.1% following a 7.1% decrease the month prior. Steel product shipments have been irregular from month to month since bottoming out in May 2020. The seesaw pattern over the past year is attributable to several factors including mill outages, factory curtailments and seasonal disruptions as the marketplace […]
Orders for manufactured durable goods rebounded in May after a surprise tumble of 0.8% (revised) in April. Orders rose 2.3 percent to $253.3 billion, reported the U.S. Census Bureau. Transportation led the increase after falling in April due to the semiconductor shortage that stalled auto production. Transportation jumped 7.6%, more than reversing April’s revised decline […]
Plate prices have seen an astronomical rise, but the big gains have not been enough to keep the spread between sheet and plate from ballooning. And that spread is already the inverse of what is the norm. Normally plate prices carry a premium to sheet prices – now the reverse is true. Sheet carries around a […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis On June 28, the Russian government announced the imposition of a 15% tax on aluminum exports. The tax is effective for the period August through December 2021 and covers most primary aluminum exports. This appears to be a case of the Russian government making an opportunistic “raid” on one […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen In this mid-year update to our global economic outlook, we look back at our expectations at the beginning of the year, and those of our surveyed clients, and compare them with actual outcomes over the past six months. Overall, the global economy is in vastly better shape […]
U.S. steel product shipments fell by 2.4% in April following an increase of 15.6% in the month prior. The decline, although disappointing, is not surprising because steel product shipments have been irregular from month to month since bottoming out in May 2020. The lack of consistency has been attributed to seasonal factors at times but […]
Durable goods orders took a surprising tumble in April, dipping 1.3% instead of rising 7-9% as predicted by economists. The volatile transportation category was responsible for most of the decline, falling 6.7%. Automotive orders fell 2.6%, sliding for a second time in the past three months as production slowed due to supply issues with semiconductor […]
U.S. steel product shipments rose by 1.9% in March after slipping by 1.7% the month prior. The rebound follows February’s decline—the first decrease since bottoming out in April 2020—which was attributed to seasonal factors. Shipments of manufactured durable goods saw a similar blip. March steel shipments posted a 9.9% increase when compared to March 2020, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according […]
U.S. industrial production, manufacturing and durable goods orders continued to show improvement from the coronavirus pandemic downturn through March and April data. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. The Industrial Production Index The IP index is a gauge of output from factories, mines and […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Our forecast for global growth in 2021 remains unchanged, with downward revisions to Europe, India and China being offset by upward revisions to other countries, principally the U.S. Although risks remain, we remain confident that the world will see […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook This month has seen strong signs that the speed of the recovery in the global industrial sector is feeding through to costs throughout the supply chain. Although this does present a risk to our forecast, our baseline case remains […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Head of Fertilizers Chris Lawson, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Commodity prices have continued an upwards tear in 2021. Steel and its raw materials have seen the sharpest gains, but less well-known commodities such as fertilizers are also attracting attention. With such steep price rises, calls for a […]
Orders for durable goods—products expected to last three years or more—recovered partially in March, increasing 0.5% after dipping 0.9% in February, said the Commerce Department on Monday. Orders for the month totaled $256.3 billion, increasing for the 10th time in the last 11 months, but at a much lower rate than the 2%-plus uplift expected by […]
After nine months of gains, orders for durable goods surprised economists with a 1.1% decline in February to $254 billion. The U.S. Census Bureau report on Wednesday indicated core capital goods–non-defense orders minus aircraft and a measure of future investment–dipped 0.8% after gaining 0.6% in January. The decline in new orders was led by a […]
By CRU Analyst Atul Kulkarni, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a 38-year high during March as the Biden government’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package improved sentiment. U.S. vehicle production and durable goods new orders stayed strong during February. Although U.S. crude steel capacity utilization increased during March, sheet supply […]
U.S. industrial production, manufacturing and durable goods orders through January and February data continued to show improvement from the coronavirus pandemic downturn. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. The Industrial Production Index The IP index is a gauge of output from factories, mines and […]
The semiconductor shortage that has forced North American automakers to temporarily halt production at some assembly plants has spilled into the home appliance industry as well. The situation is severe enough that the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM), a lobbying group, has warned about potential re-allocations of semiconductors from that sector to others. There […]
Orders for durable goods surged 3.4% in January for the largest percentage increase in six months, signaling that the manufacturing sector is on a solid recovery path, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. Orders more than tripled economists’ forecasts of a 1.0% gain for the month. Transportation led the increase, up 7.8%. Orders for commercial aircraft […]
Orders for durable goods rose for an eighth month in December, gaining 0.2 percent after an upward revision to 1.2 percent in November. Growth was below economists’ projections of 0.8 percent and the smallest increase since August. The pullback in momentum was primarily due to a sharp drop in aircraft orders. Excluding the volatile category […]
U.S. industrial production, manufacturing and durable goods orders through December continued to show improvement from the coronavirus pandemic downturn. The health of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry. The Industrial Production Index The IP index is a gauge of output from factories, mines and utilities. Industrial production […]
It might be comforting to have 2020 in the rear-view mirror, but 2021 could have a few tricks up its sleeves, an ArcelorMittal USA analyst said. The good news: The U.S. should see apparent steel consumption increase 6% in 2021 after it fell 16% in 2020, according to Ping Liang, senior analyst-strategic marketing, at ArcelorMittal […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor After years in which inflation has been low in major economies, financial markets are becoming increasingly concerned about high future inflation. In this Special Feature, we examine a number of factors which could be inflationary over the […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Welcome to inflation after a 40-year absence. I spoke at the 2021 Aluminum Extruders Council Annual Meeting in March and said to the audience that if you were under the age of 55, you probably have never seen real inflation. The last time the U.S. experienced high, persistent inflation […]