Another month for hot-rolled (HR) coil, and another disappointing one for the bulls. They are still holding onto hope that the bottom is here and still pointing to an imminent uptick in HR prices.
A month ago, when we last presented this column, there was a surprising amount of optimism in the presumably imminent reversal of the downtrend in hot-rolled steel prices in the second half of this year.
The US and Mexico announced measures on Wednesday to prevent tariff evasion and protect North America’s steel and aluminum industries.
Let’s start by asking this: Were the proclamations that Nucor’s published index prices would drift lower with the reality of a bear market for flat rolled ultimately a bit premature with the benefit of hindsight?
Sideways and range-bound describes the US steel derivatives market over the past week, though the monthly picture shows a more notable decline in front-end flat prices. Week-over-week saw the June futures contract firm slightly, from $770 per short ton (st) to $780/st as of Thursday, May 23’s provisional close. However, the contract was down by […]
Veteran StoneX futures broker Spencer Johnson will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 29, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.
When we were asked to provide some additional commentary to SMU about the futures markets for flat rolled, our only reluctance to contribute was rooted merely in the fact that SMU (1) already offers an excellent array of authors on this topic and (2) a concern regarding what new ground could be covered that hasn’t already been discussed to death on this issue. Thankfully, however, Nucor has offered up something we can describe, without hyperbole, as simply revolutionary for spot pricing in flat rolled - a development that we simply could not resist commenting on with respect to its probable impacts on the futures market.
Week-over-week trading activity in US steel derivatives markets was relatively muted, with prices maintaining their downward direction since the beginning of the month. Bids have materialized at the lower end of this range in the May, as the nearby backwardation continues to roll on - just as we saw with April being a premium over May.
Well, what a difference a month makes…
The July Midwest HRC future started February just below $800, rallied $325 in just over a month peaking at $1,115 on March 9. Over the next 81 days, the July future basically went full circle, falling $311 to just over $800 on June 1. Since the start of June, the July future has rallied almost […]
On Tuesday, Ford Motor Co. announced a new head to lead its global supply chain operations, while also detailing other changes to its executive team. Liz Door will be the automaker’s new chief supply chain officer beginning on June 12. She will be taking on responsibilities that were held since September on an interim basis […]
CME Midwest HRC futures continue to be under pressure. Every month from June through March has declined since the start of May. The July and August futures were hardest hit, dropping $50 and $53, respectively, through today’s close. These two months outpacing the others lower has flattened the curve. Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
We are excited to talk about the week that was in US hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures. Before we dive in too deeply into specifics, though, let’s touch on a data point we haven’t talked about extensively in recent reports: volume and open interest. Hard to believe, but about a decade ago the most prominent complaint […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Nucor on Thursday confirmed its plate prices would remain unchanged with the opening of its December order book. Though the market was anxiously awaiting the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker’s announcement, few were surprised by it. Why? It’s not clear that a price decrease at this stage in the fourth quarter would generate buying. And it would devalue […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Don’t look now but sheet price erosion continues, with tags across all flat-rolled products inching lower this week, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. For some time now we’ve been trying to gauge SMU survey respondents’ sentiment and their sense of market direction by asking when they think HRC prices will bottom out […]
Well, earnings season is now well underway. We’ve seen the early reporters like steel processor Worthington Steel (who announced it will be splitting off its steel segment and creating two separate, publicly traded businesses), as well as tube producer Webco, and steel and metal manufacturer Commercial Metals Co. all report strong results in their latest earnings. […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
The word ‘risk’ often has a negative connotation and gets a bad rap. But there are two sides to risk – the dark side and the light side, the bad and the good, the downside and the upside. When it comes to price risk in the steel market, you can either just accept it or […]