The various steel indices followed by Steel Market Update showed very little change in their pricing assessments of flat rolled steel coils. Most of the indexes saw prices as moving sideways as we wait for buyers to digest the latest offerings from the domestic steel mills. In the case of Steel Market Update we collected […]
September ended with the SMU Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward Neutral. In light of the price increase announcements beginning to come out of the domestic steel mills we will continue our Neutral position allowing all the mills to announce (or not) and buyers to react before making a change toward one direction or another. SMU […]
With the exception of SteelBenchmarker, which is only published twice per month, benchmark hot rolled pricing was between $640-$645 per ton (Steel Orbis did not report prices to SMU this week). Platts, which is being mentioned by some mills as replacing the CRU indices for future price adjustments, did take their hot rolled and cold […]
Over the past week we have been receiving a number of calls and emails regarding both John Anton’s (IHS Global Insight) forecast for higher steel prices as we move into 2014 and Andre Marshall’s (Crunch Risk, LLC) hot rolled futures article where he points out that the market fundamentals will force flat rolled steel prices […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has received a large number of comments and inquiries regarding the subject of contract negotiations between the domestic steel mills and their end user and service center customers. Here are some samples: “I think the bucket deals are gone and the 6 percent deals are gone. I think the mills are […]
When I last wrote two weeks back the SP 500 had failed to break down as expected and technicals suggested we were headed to 1775 as next long term target. Well within one week of that report the SP 500 hit 1730 from that Sep 12th 1685 area. This rally was in large part due […]
Our survey results from this past week pointed to a weakening in the resolve of a number of service centers. There are a group of distributors who believe that prices have only one direction to go from here – lower. Fed by the belief that their inventories will depreciate from here, a number of service […]
One of our service center contacts told Steel Market Update recently, “The ending of indexed pricing for many is just around the corner which is a major positive but hearing little of this from SMU. [The] mills still trying to make something – they cannot continue to withstand the losses they have incurred. In fact, […]
Prices this week are slightly lower over what we saw last week. For all of the companies below, prices fell or remained steady for all four products followed. We saw slight movement from $10 per ton lower or no change at all. Benchmark hot rolled prices range from $635 to $645 per ton (average $640.50 […]
None of the indexes watched by Steel Market Update (SMU) on a regular basis saw flat rolled steel prices rising this past week. We saw very modest movement lower ($1-$5 per ton) or no change. Benchmark hot rolled prices range from $645 to $652.50 per ton (average $648.90 per ton). We have discussed this issue […]
Financial Markets Two weeks back we were 1640 on SP 500 and technically it looked like we were headed to 1550-1560 zone as part of a larger retracement. Well the market has dumbfounded the chartists again, and we have since rebounded to today’s level of 1682. We are likely headed now to the 1770-80 zone […]
It has been an eerily quiet week. A number of mills have been in meetings and the MSCI is holding their forecasting summit in the Chicago area on Monday and Tuesday of this week. We did capture a few interesting numbers (such as HR at $610) but not in enough volume to warrant making any […]
Based on a number of conversations Steel Market Update (SMU) has had with service centers over the past couple of working days, there appears to be concern that the domestic steel mills are actively looking to take end user contract business away from the distributors. While it is still early in the negotiation process SMU […]
Earlier this year a number of mills announced that they would no longer accept CRU minus based steel contracts. Since at the time most flat rolled steel contracts were negotiated to go through the end of the calendar year we did not see how the mills were going to approach the subject until just recently. […]
Sentiment Continues to Trend Higher (more optimistic) Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index was measured earlier today at +40, down 3 points from the middle of August and well within the optimistic range for the index. Compared to one year ago buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are feeling much better about […]
Picking up where we left off at the end of July – during the month of August we saw relatively modest movement in flat rolled pricing out of the various indices we track on a regular basis. SMU is the only index showing some erosion in the benchmark hot rolled and cold rolled indices. The […]
We are starting to spot slight gyrations in the other indexes that we monitor on a regular basis. Most of the items reported this past week were unchanged from the week prior. It is important to remember there are differences in both the collection techniques of the various indexes as well as different FOB […]
By the end of August SMU had adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral, SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index averaged +40 which is higher than the average from June and July and well within the optimistic range of our Index. Benchmark hot rolled prices moved essentially sideways as the numbers show below. […]
Financial Markets: Since last week’s writing the SP 500 has since rallied to test the old support above at 1670 to then fail and drop to 1627 before rebounding in the last two days to 1642. As I mentioned, we are likely in a retracement move down to the 1550 target before we can find […]
We got a taste of everything this past week from the various steel indexes we monitor on a regular basis. Platts, which recently has been on the leading edge of higher flat rolled steel prices, scaled their numbers back on both hot rolled and cold rolled this week. CRU budged ever so slightly higher on […]
Financial Markets: When I last wrote, I mentioned that the SP 500 was likely headed to 1720 before a retracement and then an eventual rally up the 1775 zone. Well the SP 500 reached 1709 on August 2nd from which we have since retraced to 1640 yesterday. We settled today at 1657. In this retracement […]
Platts continues to lead the other steel indexes on both benchmark hot rolled as well as cold rolled pricing. Platts has hot rolled coil priices at $665 per ton this past week, while the rest of the indexes SMU reviews on a continuous basis have the product ranging from $645 to $653 per ton. A […]
Written by: Andre Marshall, CEO Crunch Risk, LLC The month of July ended with a decent week in hot rolled coil (HRC) steel futures with 1119 contracts trading or 22,380 net tons. Open interest on the CME at the end of the month was 1,271 contracts or 25,420 tons. The market saw some hedge buying […]
Over the past decade more steel indices have emerged in the steel commodities markets. All serve the same objective of providing pricing benchmarks for buyers and sellers of steel – and, in recent years, for the financial settlement of derivative contracts. As the number of indices grew so did the questions surrounding the validity of […]
By John Packard Have flat rolled steel prices reached their peak? We captured mixed results in this week’s analysis of the indices followed by Steel Market Update. Platts Midwest hot rolled and cold rolled coils both shot up $12.50 per ton compared to where we had them one week ago. Steel Orbis numbers did not […]
SMU doesn’t normally publish obituaries. I found the one about Berthod Beitz former Chairman of Krupp Steel especially touching and important to acknowledge. For the younger generation the idea of death camps and the world at war must be quite foreign. Even those of us born after World War II have only faded memories of […]
Written by: John Packard Bucket Deals are Killing Regional Wholesalers and Small Distributors Somewhere along the line the idea of allowing flexible tonnage purchases on month to month tonnages originally pegged for spot purchases to go into “bucket deals” has been killing some of the smaller spot distributors and wholesalers. The worst time is now […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) watches a number of steel indexes and their weekly price movements on various flat rolled products. Since the May 22nd price increase announcement by U.S. Steel the indexes have been capturing a steady increase in pricing. The spread on benchmark hot rolled has narrowed with all but SteelBenchmarker being within $5.50/per […]
Written by: John Packard Steel Market Update has been conducting our twice monthly steel surveys for approximately five years now. When we started, we chose people and companies with whom we trusted and had worked with knowing we could depend on the quality of the information gathered. Having worked within the industry for over 30 […]
We had a mixed bag this past week as the CRU indices went higher while SMU and Platts moved lower. Stuck in the middle was Steel Orbis which didn’t do anything and SteelBenchmarker which did not report new numbers last week. The benchmark hot rolled index is in a fairly tight range from $610 (SMU/Steel […]