I am in Chicago having spoken to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch gathering last night, and I will be attending the Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner this evening. The conversations I am having here in Chicago are similar to what we have been reporting for some time now. Steel buyers are concerned and frustrated […]
Ferrous scrap prices are down again in May by roughly $30 for obsolete grades and $40 for prime grades, report Steel Market Update sources. May marks the fourth month this year that has seen scrap prices decline. With the mills reportedly cranking out steel at over 80 percent of their capacity, the apparent weakness in […]
By CRU Analyst Michelle Liu Vale confirmed the suspension of tailings disposal at its Brucutu mine on Tuesday, May 7. After prices fell initially, there was a price rebound and the iron ore price ended up rising by $0.80 /t w/w to $94.90 /t for our assessed 62% Fe fines. On Tuesday, Brazil’s higher court […]
I got a call earlier today asking about a steel publication changing the direction of some of their flat rolled pricing. I responded that I don’t read the other trade publications, and I don’t follow their indices. I do not want to be influenced as I go through the always difficult, and sometimes tedious, process […]
By CRU Research Manager Chris Houlden, CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores and CME Metals Products Manager Sean Kessler. U.S. Midwest HR coil price volatility has increased markedly in recent months as opaque policy decision-making processes and inelasticity of domestic supply have led to large variations in physical market price. Concurrently, volume and open interest on […]
Coking coal, scrap and zinc prices have weakened in the last month. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through April of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month / month, 3 months / 3 months and 12 months / 12 months changes and tells us that at the three-month level only […]
By CRU Cost Economist Ross Cunningham Six months ago, the U.S. surprised the oil market by making a U-turn on its previous decision to impose sanctions on Iranian crude by providing six-month waivers to the eight biggest buyers. These waivers were one of the key reasons leading to oil prices falling by ~30 percent from […]
Another exciting week in the steel industry… A couple of reminders: With four months yet to go we are marching toward 400 registered executives for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference, which will be held in Atlanta on Aug. 26-28. This is THE premier networking event for the steel industry during the calendar year. Here […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The latest Chinese data surprised on the upside. It suggests that the China stimulus is working. But some of the strength is also likely due to one-off factors. As a result, we see the latest data as an indication that the economy is stabilizing rather than accelerating. Recent data […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Demand for steelmaking raw materials has improved in April. Chinese steel prices have jumped on rising seasonal demand, particularly from the construction sector. Steel production in the country has also picked up, as indicated by the blast furnace (BF) utilization rate displayed in CRU’s Coking Coal and Iron Ore Dashboards. This has […]
Steel interests in North America and the rest of the world are watching intently to see if the Trump administration grants some tariff relief to Canada and Mexico to clear the way for final approval of the new U.S.-Canada-Mexico Trade Agreement. One possible compromise being discussed (albeit one so far opposed by the U.S. trading […]
First, please be aware that Sunday is Easter and Steel Market Update will not publish an issue on Sunday evening. Our next issue will be on Tuesday, April 23. We have been receiving calls and getting comments associated with our release of the SMU Service Center Inventories Analysis in Sunday evening’s issue where we showed […]
By CRU Analyst Michelle Liu Turkish prices have continued to fall, down $7 /t w/w for the week ending Friday, April 12, to $305 /t CFR for HMS 80:20. Warmer weather has increased supply in the U.S. and Europe, placing downward pressure on scrap prices there. This was compounded by reduced scrap demand on both […]
Flat rolled steel inventories at the service centers rose at the end of March, according to the data providers working with Steel Market Update. SMU has been collecting service center data for almost two years now. Six months back, with the help of the CRU team, we changed the way we were collecting and the […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matthew Watkins. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the key short-term impacts on the European steel market are likely to be increased delays for material crossing the UK-EU border as well as modifications to the EU safeguard system. Beyond short-term behavior such as stockpiling, there are possible longer-term effects, perhaps […]
US Midwest HRC price volatility has increased markedly in recent months as government policy and inelasticity of domestic supply have led to large variations in physical market price. Concurrently, volume and open interest on the CME’s HRC futures and options contracts, settled on CRU’s US Midwest HRC price (“The CRU”) has surged as physical market […]
For all of you golf fanatics, it was fun to see Tiger Woods win after a 14-year drought at the Masters, and after his serious back injuries that made it look doubtful if he would ever be able to play again, never mind win a Masters Championship. I don’t have the exact count of current […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The market had hoped that China would unveil a large stimulus package at the March NPC, but any expectation of a large boost to world growth and commodities demand has not come, yet. The current stimulus package is smaller, less potent and less positive for commodities demand than previous […]
SMU was speaking to a coated sheet steel buyer this afternoon about flat rolled steel prices. He made an interesting observation about how the markets have become quite complicated. When looking at galvanized, for example, there are different starting points for light gauge, medium gauge and heavy gauge steels. There are also regional differences (southern […]
SMU was speaking to a coated sheet steel buyer this afternoon about flat rolled steel prices. He made an interesting observation about how the markets have become quite complicated. When looking at galvanized, for example, there are different starting points for light gauge, medium gauge and heavy gauge steels. There are also regional differences (southern […]
By CRU North America Analyst Ryan McKinley U.S. long product prices have come under downward pressure, driven primarily by persistently high inventory levels. This inventory build-up has been compounded by an increase in import levels in March relative to the prior month, and consistently wet weather in many regions of the U.S. has delayed any […]
A comment from a steel buyer today as we discussed steel prices, “That’s what I like about the steel business, there is always a new dynamic.” Put another way by one of my trading mentors a number of years back, in the steel industry prices are either going up or they are going down, there […]
By CRU China Analysts China released a slew of stimulus measures during the NPC and CPPCC meeting in March in order to avoid a material slowdown in economic growth in the short term. Further and more substantial cuts to VAT rates were one of those measures. This followed an earlier VAT reduction from 17 percent […]
Raw materials prices have lacked direction in the last month. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through March of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month / month, 3 months / 3 months and 12 months / 12 months changes and tells us that iron ore and pig iron declined in […]
I’m going to give you more than advertisements in tonight’s Final Thoughts. I have been struggling with our SMU Price Momentum Indicator. It appears that each product has a life of its own, and I need to do a deeper analysis of each to determine where my Momentum Indicator needs to be. Right now, I […]
Hot-Rolled Coil Price Volatility: Buckle Up As a Steel Market Update member company as well as those on a free trial, you are invited to join CRU and CME for a free steel webinar on hot rolled coil prices on Thursday, April 18. U.S. Midwest HR coil price volatility has increased markedly in recent months […]
President Trump gave the Mexican government one year for them to stop the migration of immigrants, most from Central and South American countries, as well as illegal drug smuggling into the United States. The stick he is waving is not closing the border (which would decimate the U.S. economy), but instead threatening tariffs on automobiles […]