BY CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch For the week ending Sept. 20, Turkish scrap import prices fell for the seventh consecutive week to $228 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, down $11 /t w/w. We assessed two deals from the UK totaling 37 kt of scrap. The current price is the lowest in the weekly price assessment on record and the lowest level […]
By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain The mismatch between seaborne coal supply and demand deepened during the week, causing CRU to assess the Premium HCC $17 /t lower w/w at $128 /t, FOB Australia. Demand for seaborne coal in China, India and Europe was weak in the past week. The macroeconomic environment in India continues to […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The Fed cut interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting on Sept. 18, 2019, lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25bp to a range of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. This reduction in the Fed Funds rate was widely anticipated by markets and follows a 25bp rate cut in […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary August ended on a bearish note as weak economic data from the USA signaled that the U.S. economy had slipped into contraction territory and European manufacturing data confirmed ongoing contraction. These data, coupled with ongoing rmb weakness, heightened concerns over metal demand going forward and helped push zinc’s price to […]
Editor’s note: This story is still developing. Since this reporting, Saudi Arabian officials claim they have already restored 50 percent of their lost production and that they expect oil output to fully recover within weeks. On Tuesday, oil prices corrected back down by about 6 percent on the news that Saudi production would recover more […]
Oil prices spiked by nearly 20 percent Monday on the news that a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities had knocked out more than 5 percent of the global oil supply. Prices corrected back down by about 6 percent today following reports that Saudi production would recover more quickly than originally anticipated. The Wall […]
By CRU Analyst Ryan McKinley Domestic scrap prices in the U.S. fell by $30-40 /l.ton in September depending on region and grade—by about $20 /l.ton lower than was generally expected by the market. The steeper-than-expected decline was caused by a confluence of factors including ample supply, mill outages and a weakening export market. Obsolete prices were […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill The pervasiveness of steel market weakness came to the fore this month, particularly for steel long products, leading to a sharp drop in scrap prices in almost every market we assess. Consequently, the CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) dropped by 8.3 percent m/m to 209.4 (see chart), the lowest level since November […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
By CRU Analyst Ryan Smith Operating costs for flat-rolled minimill producers have dropped in 2019 as weaker steel markets have pulled down metallics prices. This has meant that operating costs for minimills are now in line with integrated producers in the USA. However, the current cost level is not expected to be maintained. (See related […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan Smith Most people believe that minimills, which remelt scrap in electric arc furnaces, have a big cost advantage over integrated mills, which feed ore and coking coal into giant blast furnaces. But such conventional thinking is an oversimplification of the cost comparison. Based on site costs alone, and where steelmaking […]
Following on a small $20 increase in August, ferrous scrap prices for September are down $30 to $40 per ton as U.S. mills adjusted to lower demand and planned for upcoming fall shutdowns. “Prices fell this month amid a confluence of factors including ample supply, a weakening export market and mill outages,” reported CRU North […]
Do plans by U.S. mills to add millions of tons of new steelmaking capacity over the next few years make a price-killing supply glut inevitable? That’s a question very much open to debate, as shown by the spirited exchange between three leading analysts during Steel Market Update’s Steel Summit Aug. 28 in Atlanta. Despite some […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Part two of our three-part series: What’s next for U.S. iron ore production? After a remarkably profitable 2018, the U.S. steel industry has suffered a setback in 2019 as steel prices have dropped sharply on weaker than expected demand. Steel margins have turned negative and production cuts have been […]
I am technically on vacation this week so my Final Thoughts will be brief, and I will rely on Senior Editor Tim Triplett to handle these duties for the balance of this week. I have heard from a number of buyers this week telling me that their business is slowing, and the interest by end […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Part one of our three-part series: What’s next for U.S. iron ore production? The U.S. is blessed with a wealth of natural resources, including oil, gas, gold, copper, timber and coal. In addition, the country has large iron ore deposits that have supported its steel industry for more than […]
By CRU North America Analyst Ryan McKinley U.S. long product price declines were limited for most products in September after finding support from the scrap market, but downward pressure continues to mount. Even with scrap prices rising by $20 /l.ton in August, persistent price falls throughout the year have yet to spur buyers’ interest amid high […]
Steel Market Update is making adjustments to our Price Momentum Indicators on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The pressure behind rising steel prices seems to be subsiding as lead times at most mills are reasonable (especially considering the maintenance schedules in place for September and October). Steel buyers are beginning to tell […]
The effectiveness of the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariff gets mixed reviews. The 25 percent tariff has contributed to a 13 percent reduction in steel imports this year, easing the competitive pressures on domestic mills. But after an initial spike in steel prices last year, and record earnings by the mills, the price of finished […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The last month has been interesting from a forecast standpoint given the reversal in the Fed’s monetary policy stance at the end of July, new developments in the U.S.-China trade war and a shift in currency policy in China. Through all this policy change, we continue to see a […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices have bounced back in the past week with a rally on Monday pushing prices back above $90 /t. Renewed market confidence resulted in futures on the Dalian commodity exchange hitting limit up in Monday trading. Steel prices in China have been stable throughout the week, which […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Paul Wiggers de Vries Lessons learned from the mining boom saw zinc miners cut back site costs over 2015, 2016 and 2017 in the face of lower zinc prices. However, in 2018, cost controls were relaxed and cost inflation returned. In 2019, cost inflation will remain, but miners will reduce site […]
As I write my “final thoughts” for Tuesday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update, I am in Stuart, Fla., and there is a hurricane located about 80 miles due east in the Bahamas. It is Monday and I expect there will be limited power or mobility come Tuesday, so I am trying to be a […]
For the 1,078 individuals who attended our conference on Monday through Wednesday of this week—first, we thank you for your business, your support, your kind words and for carrying the message back to your respective companies. We had a great conference. There can always be improvements. We constantly strive for perfection, so look for an […]
Steel demand will continue to weaken into 2020, but will bottom next year and set the stage for an inventory rebuild and rising consumption beginning in the second half, predicted CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores in his remarks Monday during Steel Market Update’s Steel Summit in Atlanta. U.S. industrial production is currently growing at just […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Manjot Singh China has been at the center of coal price upcycles that have taken place this millennium. The commodity supercycle that characterized the early-2000s was fueled by demand growth, especially in emerging markets like China. That bull market reached a peak in 2011 when slowing demand growth was met with […]
The price of iron ore corrected in August with a $32 per dry metric ton decline, while the four-month-long decline in the price of scrap reversed slightly. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through Aug. 21 of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month / month, 3 months / 3 months […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Manjot Singh Coking coal prices have remained steady for another week on the back of mixed signals on the demand side and abundant supply from Australia. On Aug. 27, CRU assessed the Premium HCC, $0.5 /t lower w/w at $154.5 /t, FOB Australia. There were more deals concluded by Chinese buyers […]