By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest economic expansion on record—124 months and counting. The recent deceleration in U.S. growth momentum and the fading health of the global economy call into question whether the expansion can continue, and for how long. In this article, we discuss […]
By CRU Senior Economist Yizhe Daniel Xie The two-day trade negotiations between the U.S. and China ended last Friday. China promised to purchase $40-50 billion worth of agricultural products from the U.S., liberalize its financial market, and take steps to address U.S. concerns on intellectual property and the RMB exchange rate. In exchange, the U.S. […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch Last week, Turkish scrap import prices increased by $8 /t to $233 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, based on one 40 kt deal from the U.S. Following a number of weeks of sizable deal volumes, the market quietened. This increase comes despite sharp falls in the U.S. domestic market again for October buys. The […]
I thought John Ferriola’s comments at the World Steel Association would be of interest to our readers. Joe Innace of Platts interviewed Nucor’s Ferriola and reported him saying, “The rest of this year will be pretty flat. Going into next year, it’s really a crapshoot.” He told Platts Nucor’s downstream businesses have seen prices drop, […]
One of the reasons why I enjoy the steel industry is the fact that every day is different. Each customer is unique, every buyer had his/her own personality and way of conducting business. As a salesman, my challenge was understanding and then navigating the motivating factors behind every purchasing decision. The U.S. government has been […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores The North American sheet market has taken a turn for the worse. At a time when sheet demand and prices have already been stunted by a weaker trend of industrial growth and sheet demand, two recent events are only now starting to affect sheet prices: an on-going strike at […]
Lack of demand for ferrous scrap, especially in the Ohio Valley and Chicago market, forced prices down another $30-40/GT for October, on top of a similar decline in September, sources tell Steel Market Update. Scrap prices are their lowest in years, dropping eight out of the last 10 months. Shred prices today are around $215/GT, […]
By CRU Steel Prices Lead Anh Nghiem China returned to the market on Tuesday from their national holidays, but the market remained stable with mixed signals from the China Futures market, i.e. a 1 percent increase in the iron ore futures market while the steel futures market showed a 2 percent decline on the first […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores and Analyst Ryan Smith U.S. Steel has announced a 49.9 percent stock acquisition with an option to acquire the remaining 51.1 percent within the next four years, in smaller rival U.S. flat products new entrant Big River Steel. In its announcement, U.S. Steel labelled this acquisition, alongside its investment […]
By CRU Principal Analyst James Campbell The decline of long product prices accelerated this month as demand in many regions around the world failed to ignite after the seasonally slow July-August period. Prices have now unwound to the level before the 2017-18 boom. Sluggish demand and falling scrap prices have turned sentiment bearish and buying […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores Sheet prices in North America have taken another step down this week losing $15-17 /s.ton w/w. Industrial demand remains limited as evidenced by the most recent ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index, which showed another contraction. Adding to this structurally weak demand environment is the ongoing strike at General Motors. This […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch After several weeks of steady Turkish scrap, import prices were stable last week at $225 /t CFR for HMS 80:20. We have assessed seven deals totaling about 274 kt, indicating a second week of strong scrap purchasing activity. Turkish scrap import prices have now reached a level that allows Turkish steel mills to export […]
By CRU Analysts Ruilin Wang and Kevin Bai China has released a draft emission control policy document for the 2019-2020 winter heating season (WHS). Although the overall target for air pollution control is tighter than last year, it will not lead to greater steel supply restrictions because: • Clear regional targets to meet ultra-low emission standards […]
Raw materials prices were erratic in September with four of the five considered here experiencing price reversals since August. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through Sept. 25 of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month / month, 3 months / 3 months and 12 months / 12 months changes on […]
Editor’s note: The Chinese government currently bars exports of ferrous scrap to other parts of the world to assure China of an adequate domestic supply. As this analysis by CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill points out, China’s economy will eventually generate a scrap supply that far exceeds its scrap consumption, opening up the doors to […]
As was mentioned earlier in this issue, the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has dropped to the least optimistic level seen since 2013. When I started Steel Market Update, one of the first items on my agenda was to develop the Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. I wanted to understand how buyers and sellers of flat […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores U.S. plate prices have fallen to a new cycle low and threaten to move lower. Prices here were assessed at $687 /s.ton, a $16 /s.ton fall w/w. This is now the lowest price recorded since early 2018. Price momentum of the plate market has taken a negative turn for […]
There have been some discussions recently with articles written about the global scrap trade and China. China is the world’s largest steel producing nation with 50 percent (or greater) of the world’s steel production. A couple of years ago, I received information from one of my Chinese trading contacts about scrap steel being exported out […]
BY CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch For the week ending Sept. 20, Turkish scrap import prices fell for the seventh consecutive week to $228 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, down $11 /t w/w. We assessed two deals from the UK totaling 37 kt of scrap. The current price is the lowest in the weekly price assessment on record and the lowest level […]
By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain The mismatch between seaborne coal supply and demand deepened during the week, causing CRU to assess the Premium HCC $17 /t lower w/w at $128 /t, FOB Australia. Demand for seaborne coal in China, India and Europe was weak in the past week. The macroeconomic environment in India continues to […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The Fed cut interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting on Sept. 18, 2019, lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25bp to a range of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. This reduction in the Fed Funds rate was widely anticipated by markets and follows a 25bp rate cut in […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary August ended on a bearish note as weak economic data from the USA signaled that the U.S. economy had slipped into contraction territory and European manufacturing data confirmed ongoing contraction. These data, coupled with ongoing rmb weakness, heightened concerns over metal demand going forward and helped push zinc’s price to […]
Editor’s note: This story is still developing. Since this reporting, Saudi Arabian officials claim they have already restored 50 percent of their lost production and that they expect oil output to fully recover within weeks. On Tuesday, oil prices corrected back down by about 6 percent on the news that Saudi production would recover more […]
Oil prices spiked by nearly 20 percent Monday on the news that a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities had knocked out more than 5 percent of the global oil supply. Prices corrected back down by about 6 percent today following reports that Saudi production would recover more quickly than originally anticipated. The Wall […]
By CRU Analyst Ryan McKinley Domestic scrap prices in the U.S. fell by $30-40 /l.ton in September depending on region and grade—by about $20 /l.ton lower than was generally expected by the market. The steeper-than-expected decline was caused by a confluence of factors including ample supply, mill outages and a weakening export market. Obsolete prices were […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill The pervasiveness of steel market weakness came to the fore this month, particularly for steel long products, leading to a sharp drop in scrap prices in almost every market we assess. Consequently, the CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) dropped by 8.3 percent m/m to 209.4 (see chart), the lowest level since November […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]