By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen A disappointing outlook for U.S. Q3 growth, and the problems in China’s construction sector, have led us to downgrade our forecast for 2021 world growth from 5.8% to 5.4%. Our forecast for 2021 growth in Industrial Production has been revised […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service, Nov. 18 The world economy is facing multiple headwinds. Supply-chain problems continue to hold back industrial sectors and elevate inflation. Meanwhile, an energy crisis is adding to the pressure on manufacturers and consumers. On the demand side, the biggest risk remains the Chinese […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.5% in the second quarter of 2021 on an annualized basis, according to the advanced estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). While the gain was the second-fastest pace of growth in 38 years, it was a disappointing mark, falling short of forecasts for 8% GDP. The second […]
U.S. consumer confidence remained steady in July following more accentuated gains in five of the past six months, according to the latest data from The Conference Board. The July index rose by just 0.2 of a point month on month, on top of increases totaling nearly 34 points from February through June. “Consumer confidence was flat […]
U.S. GDP grew by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021 on an annualized basis, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) third and final revision. The third revision saw no change in overall GDP compared to the advance and second estimates; however, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports […]
U.S. consumer confidence improved further in June on top of repeated gains in each of the four previous months, according to the latest data from The Conference Board. The June index rose by 7.3 points month on month, following increases of nearly 25 points from February through May. “Consumer confidence increased in June and is currently […]
Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of monthly Key Market Indicators underscores that the recovery is still under way. Markers for both the Present Situation and Trends show small but positive moves from a month ago and now exceed pre-pandemic levels. SMU’s Key Market Indicators include a host of data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021 on an annualized basis, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The second estimate saw no change in overall GDP compared to the advance estimate; however, upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment were […]
U.S. consumer confidence saw little change in May following repeated gains since the beginning of 2021, according to the latest data from The Conference Board. The May index edged down marginally by 0.3 points month on month, following increases of more than 30 points from February through April. “After rebounding sharply in recent months, U.S. consumer […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021 on an annualized basis, according to the advanced estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The gain marks the second-fastest pace of growth since Q2 2003 and was exceeded only by the pandemic-reopening-fueled burst of Q3 in 2020. This growth […]
Producer prices continue to register solid monthly increases from the losses suffered during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The composite Producer Price Index (PPI) of all commodities from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed an increase of 2.1% in February versus the prior month, and a 6.0% increase year on year, seasonally adjusted. […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) finished 2020 with annualized growth of 4.3% in the fourth quarter, a slight upward adjustment based on the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The third estimate included upward revisions to private inventory investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to nonresidential fixed investment. An annualized […]
U.S. consumer confidence took a major leap forward in March, according to the latest data from The Conference Board. “Consumer confidence increased to its highest level since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their short-term […]
U.S. consumer confidence saw major gains in April, according to the latest data from The Conference Board. April’s index rose by about 13.0 points month on month, following a nearly 18.6-point increase in March. “Consumer confidence has rebounded sharply over the last two months and is now at its highest level since February 2020,” said Lynn […]
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) closed out 2020 on an encouraging note with annualized growth of 4.1%, based on the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The second estimate included upward revisions to residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending, partly offset by a downward revision to personal […]
The latest consumer confidence data from The Conference Board indicates that consumers remain cautiously optimistic about the economy. February consumer confidence data showed gains across most inputs; however, the survey results were gathered prior to the Texas power crisis resulting from the recent winter storm and could paint a partial picture of current sentiment. Nevertheless, there […]
U.S. consumer confidence continues to fall as global pandemic fatigue sets in and genuine relief still seems far away. Despite a slight correction and stability throughout the summer months, the composite value of consumer confidence, reported by The Conference Board, has now slipped repeatedly during the fourth quarter from 101.8 in September to 88.8 in […]
U.S. auto sales slowed in November, dipping to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 15.55 million units from 16.21 million in October, says Wards Intelligence. The decline was attributed primarily to three fewer selling days and one less weekend during the month. “November 2020 is a prime example of why accounting for selling day differences […]
After declining drastically earlier in the year due to the onset of COVID-19, U.S. consumer confidence has improved, but still has a way to go. Following increases in August and September, the composite value of consumer confidence, as reported by The Conference Board, slipped slightly in October to 100.9, down from 101.8 the month prior. […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook In this Global Economic Outlook, we reflect on some of the most important risks to the forecast we discussed with clients during LME week. Three issues were foremost: risks to the recovery from the second Covid-19 wave, policy stimulus […]
Nearly three out of four (72 percent) of the service center and OEM executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire last week said they feel upbeat about their company’s prospects in the fourth quarter. Yet SMU received twice as many negative comments as positive ones. Clearly, even the optimists are concerned about COVID and the […]
U.S. consumer confidence has suffered drastically from the pandemic, but has shown some positive signs of late. The composite value of consumer confidence in September, reported by The Conference Board, was 101.8, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time since March 2020. The three-month moving average (3MMA) moved up to 93.3. Despite the increase, the […]
The U.S. consumer’s confidence in the present situation has deteriorated drastically in response to the pandemic. The composite value of consumer confidence in August, reported by The Conference Board, was 84.8 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 91.6. The 3MMA has decreased from 130.4 in February. This indicator is quite volatile, therefore the moving […]
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in July, a decline from June but an improvement over recent months. The composite index now stands at 92.6, down from 98.3 in June, and down from 135.8 percent one year prior. “Consumer Confidence declined in July following a large gain in June,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The estimate of U.S. GDP for Q2 2020 shows a decline of 32.9 percent q/q. This is the biggest drop on record, but slightly better than expected. Overall, the surprisingly good data on consumption, sentiment and production released in July is due to the reopening […]
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in June, further stabilizing from sharp declines in recent months. The index now stands at 49.05, up from 45.27 in May. However, the index is still down 54.8 percent from a year ago. “The Employment Trends Index increased for the second consecutive month, but the virus’s recent […]
In May, manufacturing gained back 17 percent of April’s job losses, while construction gained back 47 percent, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The net change in employed persons was negative 20.7 million in April and positive 2.5 million in May. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries […]
Auto sales were expected to be low in April and predictions were correct. Edmunds estimates U.S. sales fell 36.6 percent from March and 52.5 percent compared to April 2019. “April auto sales took the biggest hit we’ve seen in decades,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of Insights. “These bleak figures aren’t just because consumers […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment remained in pessimistic territory in mid-April as steel demand was stifled by the government restrictions on commerce to control the spread of COVID-19. Future Buyers Sentiment was notably more optimistic, however, which suggests service center and manufacturing executives anticipate better days ahead. Steel Market Update asked steel buyers how they view their […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment remained in pessimistic territory in mid-April as steel demand was stifled by the government restrictions on commerce to control the spread of COVID-19. Future Buyers Sentiment was notably more optimistic, however, which suggests service center and manufacturing executives anticipate better days ahead. Steel Market Update asked steel buyers how they view their […]