By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Legislation passed Dec. 16 by the Senate and now on its way to the White House will all but ban imports connected at any point in the supply chain to materials from China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. However well justified by human rights, this ban will be a challenge for […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group It’s that time of year when we start looking ahead as we put the current year in our “rear view mirror.” Here are some of the things that I circulated to the CRU Aluminum Analysis team for consideration among our “top calls for 2022.” These are not officially “blessed,” […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group The massing of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine has raised tensions to a high level on the political scene. It forces us to take another look at the repercussions of new sanctions on the Russian state should Putin decide to invade. 2018 Repeated? In March 2018, sanctions […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Andy Grove, the former CEO of Intel, wrote a classic business book, “Only the Paranoid Survive.” One of the simple messages of that great read was to always pay attention to your competition. It’s for that reason, we thought it useful to update you on some of Alcoa’s recent […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Prices are higher…. why aren’t we seeing more aluminum production? One of the most natural questions being asked in the world of aluminum is “with LME prices up so much year on year, why aren’t we seeing more capacity coming back to life?” It IS an appropriate question and […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Quotas in exchange for exemption, a bad precedent for other countries There has been much written about the new détente between the EU27 and the USA in the aftermath of the deal to suspend duties on European steel and aluminum. There are also reports that something may also be […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Since I spoke at the Fall Management Meeting, the market has continued to experience tremendous volatility and new variables to consider. CRU has recently updated its expectation for market balances, premiums and LME prices. These forecasts can be seen in detail through our Aluminum Market Outlook subscription. Here are […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
By CRU Advisor Greg Wittbecker LME cash aluminum prices have retreated hard from new 13-year highs, falling from $3,300 last week to reach $2,682 as we completed the week. Supply-side Price Concerns Get a Reality Check but Remain Dangerous Market euphoria over supply-side constraints ran into the effect of China’s “command economy” at work. Power […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker Aluminum prices touched a 13-year high last week, flirting with $3,000 per metric ton on the LME. That throwback to 2008 is not a coincidence, corresponding to the last time that primary aluminum supply-demand balances were as tight as they are in 2021. In the period 2006 to first […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker Steel and aluminum are vigorous competitors, but share a common plight, supply chain woes. Just-in-time manufacturing, lean manufacturing, vendor-managed inventory…we all know the buzzwords that have shaped the way both the aluminum and steel supply chains have operated for several decades. Since the Global Financial Crisis, the primary aluminum market […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker China has been wrestling with inflationary tendencies in its aluminum market for some time: Spot Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) high aluminum is at $3,516 per ton; that compares to $2,139 a year ago and $1,849 five years ago. The Chinese State Reserve Board (SRB) is releasing part of its […]
By CRU Aluminum Advisor Greg Wittbecker The fundamentals in the aluminum market are continuing to tighten as we complete the third quarter. Growing Deficit in 2021 Driven by Chinese and Canadian Production Excursions CRU has substantially increased the size of the global deficit for 2021, moving it from a 240,000-ton surplus to a deficit of 1,180,000 […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Over the past few months, we have seen a number of short-term strike actions around North America: a Montreal four-day strike in May and the Charleston International Longshoremen Association (ILA) filing strike notices at the same time. While both industrial actions have not resulted in extended work stoppages, they […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill promises to deliver about $550 million in actual new investment. The breakdown of that investment looks as follow. Aluminum and steel have superior sustainability advantages and should exploit them. Clearly, the steel industry is cheering the passage as much as the aluminum industry. Both […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Workers walked out of Rio Tinto’s Kitimat, British Columbia, smelter on Sunday, July 25, after failing to secure a new contract. The union voted 100% in favor of the strike. This smelter was operating at 383,000 metric tons/year. Some familiar themes are at the center of the labor dispute. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis U.S. Representative Scott Peters (D-CA) and U.S. Senator Chris Coons (D-DE) unveiled their FAIR Transition and Competition Act of 2021 on July 19. The stated objectives of the bill were: • Recognize the costs incurred by U.S. companies in producing cleaner products due to emissions-related laws and regulations • […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis We have just refreshed our expectations on aluminum for 2021 in our latest of the CRU Aluminum Market Outlook. Here are some of the key takeaways: Demand Is Strong The World ex China is into its recovery from the the Covid-19 pandemic. We expect to see sharp year-on-year growth […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Ten years ago the aluminum can, and the aluminum sheet mills that supplied them, looked to be on borrowed time. Aluminum beverage can shipments, as reported by the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI) had been flatlining for years. Can manufacturers were consolidating, with Ball and Ardagh acquiring Rexam assets in […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis On June 28, the Russian government announced the imposition of a 15% tax on aluminum exports. The tax is effective for the period August through December 2021 and covers most primary aluminum exports. This appears to be a case of the Russian government making an opportunistic “raid” on one […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on overall aluminum demand in 2020 was well documented. However, that storyline masked a remarkable rebound in the demand for aluminum beverage cans. Data from the Aluminum Association shows this: • 2020 total domestic shipments of can stock supplied to the can market rose 3.3% […]
Editor’s note: SMU contributor Bryan Tice is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and the firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. Before joining Metal Edge Partners, Bryan held a variety of commercial […]
Cargill Metals and Canadian mining company Black Iron are teaming up to create a new iron ore plant in the Ukraine. The May 10 agreement gives Cargill offtake rights to the first 4 million metric tons of ore produced per year for the next 10 years along with profit sharing. On the profit share, Black […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]