By CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini and Multi-Commodity Analyst Zanna Aleksahhina, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor There is a global semiconductor shortage. It was ignited by strong demand for consumer electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic and it is now threatening auto production around the world. We expect it to reduce global vehicle output by around […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker In January 2016, Bitcoin was trading at 450 to the U.S. dollar. Recent prices hit over 58,000 and are now trading around 48,000. There are investment advisors suggesting cryptocurrencies should be part of investors’ portfolios. It appears that Bitcoin and its imitators are going mainstream. While this fascination with […]
By CRU Advisor Greg Wittbecker Buyers of aluminum have been spoiled since the global financial crisis by persistent surpluses and relatively benign price action. That is changing. Inventories are Depleting and What Remains is in Strong Hands Global inventories expressed in days of global consumption stood at 78 days ending 2020. This compares to 114 […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker Environmental, social and governance (ESG) is now core to most major corporations. Companies that don’t put strong emphasis on this do so at their peril. Many companies are using ESG as an opportunity to create competitive advantage. These advantages are coming through several approaches. Sustainable Production Sustainability can be […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The grounding of the MV Ever Given in the Suez Canal has multiple repercussions on the global maritime supply chain, but it is especially acute for the aluminum market. Gulf Region Production is Important The Gulf Region in terms of aluminum production comprises Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis China has staked out ambitious goals to decarbonize its overall economy. President Xi has said that CO2 emissions will peak before 2030 and that China will be carbon neutral by 2060. The Macro-economic Perspective China generates 28% of global CO2 emissions. Its energy-related emissions are 15% of the world’s […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis U.S. Midwest primary aluminum expressed over LME cash is 26-27 cents per pound, touted at “record levels.” In October 2014, Midwest traded premiums reached 23 cents per pound, so on paper we have set a new high….or have we? 2014: the Era of the LME Warehouse Queues We don’t […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The EU continues to move ahead on its plan to decrease greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here’s some historical context on emissions management in the EU. The EU has been on a long journey to its current condition. Phase 1 of its decarbonization plan took place between 2005-2017. The Emissions Trading […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Welcome to inflation after a 40-year absence. I spoke at the 2021 Aluminum Extruders Council Annual Meeting in March and said to the audience that if you were under the age of 55, you probably have never seen real inflation. The last time the U.S. experienced high, persistent inflation […]
By CRU Research Manager, Aluminum, Eoin Dinsmore Utilizing the powerful CarbonFlow feature in CRU’s Emissions Analysis Tool, we explain why Rusal is proposing a demerger of its higher-carbon aluminum assets. UC Rusal, the largest aluminum producer outside China, announced on May 18 that it plans to split into two companies. “AL+” will house the company’s […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Whenever prices for key commodities such as aluminum, steel, wood or rubber start to really rise, there is a natural tendency for Procurement Officers to say, “let’s look at alternatives.” That’s their job, and if they weren’t looking at options to compensate for cost increases, they would be fired. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Primary aluminum prices are on a roll in China and the World ex China. The Shanghai Metal Exchange (SHFE) spot price is 18,425 RMB or $2,825 per metric ton. Even adjusting out the 13% Value-Added-Tax (VAT) embedded in that price, it’s still a 10-year high of $2,500 per metric […]
Update on Tampa Steel Conference registrations: We are moving past 250 registered attendees for the Feb. 2 virtual conference. We fully anticipate the 32nd annual Tampa Steel Conference will attract 350-400+ attendees from manufacturing, distribution, steel mills, trading companies, logistics companies, ship lines, port facilities, toll processors and suppliers to those industries. You can learn more about the […]
We welcome Michael Cowden to Steel Market Update next week as the guest speaker for our SMU Community Chat. The webinar will be held on Wednesday, Jan. 13, at 11 a.m. ET. The webinar is free to anyone who is interested in the flat rolled and plate steel markets. Joining Michael will be SMU President […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: As the nation (and the world) prepares for the inauguration of Joe Biden as the new president, many groups are releasing position papers telling the new administration what it should do about trade-related issues. They run the gamut from […]
Steel price levels are in uncharted territory these days. The current prices, especially in an economy where interest rates are near zero and inflation remains low, are truly remarkable. How did this happen and when will it end? The short answer is that nobody really knows—but we can analyze the events surrounding the spike and […]
Eyes often glaze over when trade lawyers talk about the intricacies of antidumping law to what lawyers sometimes patronizingly call “laymen.” With a clear understanding of that risk, today’s piece dives into a recent decision by the Court of International Trade dealing with the Commerce Department’s treatment of Section 232 duties on steel in antidumping […]
Last Thursday, policy wonks observed the confirmation hearing of Katherine Tai to be the new United States Trade Representative, replacing Robert Lighthizer. When a new administration takes over, the previous leadership departs at noon on Jan. 20 and “acting” leadership assumes authority, but generally not much power. The new team is nominated, typically on Jan. […]
Last Thursday, policy wonks observed the confirmation hearing of Katherine Tai to be the new United States Trade Representative, replacing Robert Lighthizer. When a new administration takes over, the previous leadership departs at noon on Jan. 20 and “acting” leadership assumes authority, but generally not much power. The new team is nominated, typically on Jan. […]
“Life’s full of tough choices, innit?” Ursula, The Little Mermaid (1989) That memorable cinematic line brings to mind the dilemmas of trade, diplomacy and national security. Economic interests sometime interfere with military and human rights considerations. Add the COVID pandemic into the mix, which has profoundly affected international commerce. First, the changes in international trade […]
“Life’s full of tough choices, innit?” Ursula, The Little Mermaid (1989) That memorable cinematic line brings to mind the dilemmas of trade, diplomacy and national security. Economic interests sometime interfere with military and human rights considerations. Add the COVID pandemic into the mix, which has profoundly affected international commerce. First, the changes in international trade […]
An interesting feature of trade remedy law, by which I refer to as antidumping, countervailing duty, safeguards and Section 232 import “adjustments,” is alleged circumvention of these orders. Readers have asked questions about this subject, which can catch downstream users and importers unawares. Circumvention refers to processing goods that are subject to trade restrictions (duties […]
An interesting feature of trade remedy law, by which I refer to as antidumping, countervailing duty, safeguards and Section 232 import “adjustments,” is alleged circumvention of these orders. Readers have asked questions about this subject, which can catch downstream users and importers unawares. Circumvention refers to processing goods that are subject to trade restrictions (duties […]
When nations go to war, trade between them, at least in modern times, is supposed to stop. There was little complaint after Pearl Harbor, for example, about legislative and executive actions to stop all commerce between the United States on the one hand, and Germany, Italy and Japan on the other. We used to assume […]
A court decision last week highlights the limits Congress placed on presidential authority under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. In PrimeSource Building Products v. United States (decided April 5), the Court of International Trade ruled that presidential Proclamation 9980 (issued Jan. 24, 2020), imposing tariffs on certain steel and aluminum “derivative products” was […]
In December 2020, Congress passed a massive spending bill, which is the way appropriations have been done in Washington for the last 20 years or so. One new provision with international implications is the requirement for the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to prepare an annual threat assessment report. This new report, issued recently by […]
Count me as an optimist—that events move, sporadically and inconsistently, but generally toward progress. I received a lot of messages during the past week that wondered openly whether talks between the United States and the European Union might lead to an end to the steel and aluminum tariffs that have been in effect since 2018. […]
Count me as an optimist—that events move, sporadically and inconsistently, but generally toward progress. I received a lot of messages during the past week that wondered openly whether talks between the United States and the European Union might lead to an end to the steel and aluminum tariffs that have been in effect since 2018. […]
Two phenomena that we have not seen in a long time have recently appeared. Whether they are short-term events or long-term realities is provoking debate. I am speaking of the distinct but related issues of inflation and shortages of, it seems, nearly everything. Inflation was a major factor in the U.S. economy throughout the 1970s. […]
Strong demand and tight supply pushed steel prices upwards throughout December, with hot rolled prices nearing quadruple digits as 2020 came to a close. Steel Market Update’s hot rolled price index reached $985 per ton by the end of December, up $180 per ton or 22 percent from the beginning of the month. The SMU […]