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Domestic shredded scrap has experienced a renaissance in pricing since January. And that increase had caused traditional exporters to ship their material to domestic users instead of overseas.
But with recent changes, this cycle may end with the resurgence of export demand and continued foreign exchange fluctuations.
In the final week of February, SMU polled steel and scrap executives to gather their insights on the current state of the scrap market as well as future projections.
Buyers are optimistic for a strong scrap market in March, driven by limited scrap inflows from severe weather disruptions and increasing mill demand.
The CRU Metallics Price Indicator (CRUmpi) rose by 5.0% m/m in February to 293.7, a five-month high. Scrap prices increased in different degrees this month, reflecting the confidence level in the steel market across different regions. While US scrap prices rose sharply m/m due to limited availability, those in Europe and Asia had only small […]
As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices.
SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.
Steel prices didn’t start the new year with a bang – but they didn’t bust, either, according to SMU’s first survey of 2025.
On the sheet side, market participants generally predicted that prices should move higher this year on the coated trade petition and the potential for tariffs under President-elect Trump.
But most buyer sources weren’t eager to load up given the uncertain timing and scope of the potential tariffs. They also cited increasing domestic capacity and modest demand.