New orders for manufactured durable goods in August were almost unchanged from July. In hindsight the results for May and June were outliers on the high side driven by orders for civil aircraft. The three month moving average in August had negative growth of 1.5 percent compared to the three months through July. A better […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter was 2.46 percent q / q, little changed from the 2nd estimate and up from 1.1 percent in the first quarter. The official news release is included below. All major sub components made positive contributions except government expenditures and net exports […]
The Conference Board composite measure of consumer confidence decreased in September from 81.8 in August to 79.7. The 3MMA fell from 81.6 to 80.8 but was up by 15.8 year over year. The view of the present situation and expectations moved in opposite directions. The consumer’s view of the present situation was up from 71.1 […]
Ocean Freight Ocean freight rates, as reported by the Baltic Exchange, have rebounded strongly in the last few months driven mainly by the cape-size component. The composite Baltic Dry Index has risen by 152 percent from its 2013 low point in February an increase from 737 to 1860 (Figure 1). The Capesize component has risen […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on September 22nd and thirteen were negative; […]
In August China’s steel production exceeded 50 percent of the global total for what we believe to be the first time. Global production in August was 130.352 million tonnes with a capacity utilization of 76.0 percent. In three months through August production was at an annual rate of 1.572 billion tonnes with a capacity utilization […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index (industrial production) was reported as 99.36 for August, up from 98.96 in July. This was an increase of 0.4 percent and moved the 3MMA up by 0.17 percent. Growth of the 3MMA was 2.0 percent year over year reversing […]
Other metallic coated (mainly Galvalume) imports July 2013 and YTD by source and port of entry. This is the fourth of an expanded series of analyses, exclusive to the Steel Market Update that is designed to provide a much more comprehensive view of actual flat rolled steel volume by product. This will enable a steel […]
NAFTA Automotive production in August rebounded to 1.436 million units after the summer shut down. The annual rate in August was 17.243 million units. On a rolling 12 month basis production was 15.719 million units, up 5.9 percent from the 12 months through August a year ago. Growth has been slowing as production approached then […]
Hot dipped galvanized imports July and YTD 2013 by source and port of entry: This is one of an expanded series of analyses, exclusive to the Steel Market Update that is designed to provide a much more comprehensive view of actual volume by product. This will enable a steel buyer or manager to see exactly […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Friday reported August results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials. For the purpose of this report, Steel […]
This is one of an expanded series of analyses, exclusive to Steel Market Update that is designed to provide a much more comprehensive view of actual flat rolled steel imports by product, volume, port of arrival and country of origin. This series of reports includes hot rolled, cold rolled, hot dipped galvanized (HDG) and other […]
Hot rolled sheet imports July 2013 and YTD by source and port of entry: This is one of an expanded series of analyses, exclusive to the Steel Market Update that is designed to provide a much more comprehensive view of actual volume by product. This will enable a steel buyer or manager to see exactly […]
Apparent steel supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the total tonnage of flat rolled steel sheet and strip supply was 4,305,106 tons per month in the period May through […]
Year to date through July, net imports of steel sheet products have been steadily declining as those of long products have been steadily increasing, (Figures 1 and 2). Net imports are defined as imports minus exports and at times can be negative for individual products when exports exceed imports. In the case of flat rolled […]
Job creation at 169,000 in August was a little below expectations but the downward revision to June and July of 74,000 was very disappointing. Employment gains continue to be heavily slanted towards service industries. In August production industries added, 18,000 jobs, service industries added 151,000 jobs, (Table 1). Included in the service number is government […]
On the first working day of each month the Commerce Department releases construction expenditure data for the month before last. For example, on September 3rd the July data was released. This data known as CPIP, (Construction put in place) differs from commercially available data which to the best of our knowledge always measures construction starts. […]
The Conference Board composite measure of consumer confidence increased slightly in August and the 3MMA improved from 79.1 also to 81.5 the highest value since February 2008 and up by 18.4 year over year. The view of both the present situation and expectations improved on a 3MMA basis. The consumer’s view of the present situation […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods declined by 7.3 percent in July from the very strong June result and following three consecutive monthly increases. The decline in civil aircraft orders was the main reason for the month on month decline. The three month moving average in July rose by 0.5 percent month on month to […]
Currency update August 22nd 2013. The Federal Reserve publishes a trade weighted index of the value of the US dollar against a basket of the currencies of our major trading partners on a daily and monthly basis. This is referred to as the Broad Index. The Broad Index appreciated strongly in the 3rd Quarter of […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The SMU Key Market Indicators and Analysis will become part of the new Premium membership when the new SMU website comes up in September. The total number of indicators considered at present […]
Indicators Suggest No Significant Growth in Steel for the Balance of 2013 The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and steel consumption. The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus graphical analysis by Steel Market Update. The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn […]
Other metallic coated (mainly Galvalume) imports June 2013 and YTD by source and port of entry. This is the fourth of an expanded series of analyses, exclusive to the Steel Market Update that is designed to provide a much more comprehensive view of actual volume by product. This will enable a steel buyer or manager […]
This is one of an expanded series of analyses, exclusive to the Steel Market Update that is designed to provide a much more comprehensive view of actual volume of steel imports by product. This will enable a steel buyer or manager to see exactly what flat rolled steel came into his immediate vicinity and where […]
The three month moving average of global production in July was unchanged from June at an annual rate of 1.596 billion tons. Capacity utilization was 77.5 percent (Figure 1). For the July data, the World Steel Association increased the global capacity to 2.06 billion tons which reduced the capacity utilization value back to Q3 last […]
As reported by Sandy Williams here in the Steel Market Update on Friday, the National Association of Home Builders index reached its highest level in almost eight years in July but the Census Bureau construction starts data is not so encouraging. On a year over year basis the 3-month moving average (3MMA) of both permits […]
This is one of an expanded series of analyses, exclusive to the Steel Market Update that is designed to provide a much more comprehensive view of actual volume by product. This will enable a steel buyer or manager to see exactly what came into his immediate vicinity and where it came from. This series of […]
Industrial production and manufacturing capacity utilization for July 2013 – Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 98.95 for July, up from 98.91 in June this was 1.8 percent below the peak of September 2007. Manufacturing is still making progress. The three month […]
In three months through May exports of flat products declined as those of long products remained unchanged (see graphic below). Compared to May last year total exports were up by 311 tons. This result breaks down to flat products down 21,166 tons, longs down 29,114 tons and tubulars up 43,176 tons. In all three cases […]
Key Market Indicators March 23rd 2013 The key indicators chart is designed to give a snapshot of the steel market on a specific date. The chart is stacked to separate the primary indicators of the general economy, of proprietary Steel Market Update indices, of both flat rolled and long product market indicators and finally of […]