The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is a monthly estimate by major industry of manufacturing output in the Seventh Federal Reserve District states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is a composite index of 15 manufacturing industries that uses hours worked data to measure monthly changes in regional activity. The three month […]
In November consumer confidence declined for the third consecutive month. This was entirely due to the expectations component of the index. On a three month moving average basis the news looks better (Figure 1). On this basis the present situation component has been little changed for four months but expectations have taken a dive, probably […]
The total number of Key Market Indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on November 21st the same as on October 31st but there were two changes. We changed the situation of demand for commercial and industrial bank loans from green […]
According to the World Steel Association, global steel production rose 1.4 percent in October to 134,262,000 tonnes compared to September and reached a capacity utilization rate of 78.0 percent. The annualized three month moving average production was 1.591 billion tonnes through October (Figure 1). Capacity is now 2.076 billion tonnes. Global production this year has deviated from the […]
Apparent supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the total tonnage of flat rolled sheet and strip supply was 4,469,473 tons per month in the period July through September. This […]
Both industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 99.98 for October, down by 0.14 from September. This index is based on the July 2007 level being defined as 100. The three month moving average, (3MMA) accelerated to a […]
Light vehicle (autos + light trucks) production surged in October, up 13.5 percent, the rolling 3 months production was up by 13.1 percent. Year over year production was up by 8.3 percent in total and the Detroit 3 made up some ground being up 10.1 percent. Light vehicle production has now exceeded the pre-recession level […]
Net job creation in October was 204,000; August and September were revised up by 45,000 and 15,000 respectively. In October 169,000 jobs were created in services and 35,000 in goods producing industries. The private sector added 212,000 jobs as government shed 8,000. Of the goods producing, 19,000 were in manufacturing and 11,000 in construction (Table […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and in particular debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and […]
This morning’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised on the upside with a growth of 0.7 percent from Q2 and 2.82 percent annualized. GDP in Q3 2013 was 1.65 percent higher than in Q3 2012. This data is the first estimate for the third quarter; revisions have often been substantial recently. The following […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of 73 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The survey preamble was as follows. “The October 2013 […]
The Department of Commerce economic data is running late and in the case of CPIP the September data will be released along with October on December 2nd. We now have August data released almost a month late. Normally, this would be a Premium Level analysis only. Since the reports are running behind we decided to […]
Review of Manufacturing. October 31st 2013 Each month the Steel Market Update publishes a table of what we believe to be the most significant indicators of the state of the steel market and current results in the long and flat rolled sectors. We will be discussing one section of this table in detail each month, […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on October 31st and thirteen were negative; […]
Consumer Confidence is a Strong Leading Indicator of Future Steel Demand As expected because of the shenanigans in Washington, consumer confidence declined strongly in October, particularly as regards consumer’s future expectations. The Conference Board composite measure of consumer confidence decreased to 71.2 from 80.2 in September. The three month moving average, (3MMA) fell from 81.0 […]
The 3 month moving average (3MMA) of imports of the combined tonnage of billets, blooms and slabs through September reached the highest level since February last year. We use the 3MMA to avoid getting too wrapped up in a single months numbers which can be a fruitless exercise. On the same basis flat rolled products […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The Industrial Production (IP) index was reported as 100.04 for September, up by 5.7 percent from the 99.47 result in August. This was the first month >100 since February 2008. The three month moving average (3MMA) increased by 2.5 percent year over […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September came in slightly above trend at $233.411 billion, (Fig 1). This monthly data is very spiky mainly due to erratic orders for civil aircraft. However it is one of the earliest indicators for US manufactured goods and though we are not involved in aviation the overall trend […]
Net job creation in September was 148,000 of which 122,000 was service providing and 22,000 goods producing. Of the service providing 22,000 was in government. Of the goods producing, 2,000 were in manufacturing and 20,000 in construction (Table 1). Expectations had been for a gain of 180,000. Digging into the September numbers reveals weak growth […]
Global steel production, September 2013 rose 1.05 percent from August to 132,154,000 tonnes and a capacity utilization rate of 76.8 percent. The annualized three month moving average production was 1.581 billion tonnes in the third quarter (Figure 1). Capacity is now 2.076 billion tonnes. Global production this year is following the same pattern as the […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments declined by 241,500 tons in September compared to August but shipping days also declined by two. As a result, tons per day shipments increased from 158,100 to 161,800. Month end inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 7,604,000 tons. Intake improved from 162,210 tons per day in August to 166,940 […]
Automotive production, sales and inventory in NAFTA through September 2013 Based on Ward’s automotive reports, total light vehicle, (LV) production was 1,390,175 units in September, down by 3.3 percent from August. Autos were down by 5.1 percent and light trucks by 1.8 percent. A better measure of direction is the three month rolling average of […]
Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its forecast for global / regional and national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth through 2018. For 2013 the projection for global growth was reduced by 0.3 percent to 2.9 percent and for 2014 was reduced down by 0.2 percent to 3.6 percent. As it stands 2013 will […]
The Federal Reserve publishes a trade weighted index of the value of the US$ (dollar) against a basket of the currencies of our major trading partners on a daily and monthly basis. As a result of the government shut-down we don’t have the very latest data for this index. The latest data we do have […]
The partial federal government shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from publishing the September data which was scheduled for last Friday. We have therefore decided to take a more in depth look at manufacturing and construction employment through August. The graph below shows the change in total employment for these two sectors since January […]
Effect of the government shutdown on information flow: about half of the data that we at SMU use to evaluate the state of and direction of the steel market is produced by government agencies and is publicly available. The current nature of things was brought home to us on Tuesday when we attempted to access […]
The Commerce Department data for construction expenditures in August should have been released on October 1st but due to the government shutdown is not available. We therefore decided to use our existing data and to take a more detailed look at non residential construction which is by far the largest sector of total construction expenditures. […]
The Institute of Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index, (PMI) registered 56.2 percent in September, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the August reading. The 3MMA (three month moving average) of the index was 55.7 in September, the highest in over two years and continued to distance itself from the 50 threshold that marks the […]
The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is a monthly estimate by major industry of manufacturing output in the Seventh Federal Reserve District states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is a composite index of 15 manufacturing industries that uses hours worked data to measure monthly changes in regional activity. The official news […]
The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada. Rigs are considered active from the time they break ground until the time they reach their target depth and may be establishing […]