An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, a decrease of one as the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index has been put on hold until late April to enable […]
Durable goods orders increased in February continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession (Figure 1). However the three month moving average (3MMA) declined as November’s above trend result was dropped from the calculation (Figure 2). The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA has progressively declined from 7.9 percent in November […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third estimate of real GDP today, (March 27th) for Q4 2013. The third is normally the final estimate though there sometimes are revisions further back in time. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, this was an upward revision […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.0 in March driven by an increase of 7.0 in the expectations component and a decline of 0.6 in the consumer’s view of the present situation. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations components increased which caused the 3MMA of the composite to […]
Light vehicle sales in both January and February were depressed by the unusually bad weather in the North. This applied to both retail and fleet sales. The annualized sales total of autos + light trucks in February was 15.4 million units. Sales are expected to rebound to greater than a 16 million unit annual rate […]
Global Steel Production in February declined by 11.7 million tonnes, normal for that month based on a reduced number of operating days. February steel production was 125 million tonnes, an increase of 0.6 percent from February last year. Capacity utilization on a rolling three month basis through February was 75.9 percent (Figure 1). The annualized […]
In February total building permits exceeded total starts by 38,000 units which would seem at first glance to be a good sign. However digging down into the data reveals a much more complex situation in this market. The two sub sectors, single and multi-family units are behaving differently. Single family permits were 12,000 less than […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The Industrial Production (IP) index was reported as 101.63 for February, this was the fourth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of the index expanded by 0.62 month on […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in February declined by 225,000 tons but this was because shipping days declined by two to twenty. Tons per day (t / d) shipments rose from 158,500 tons in January to 161,600 in February. Intake was 162,820 t / d leading to a monthly surplus of 24,400 tons and […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Friday reported February results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials. See below for the official description […]
Canada was the highest volume exporter of all carbon and low alloy steel products to the US in both the last 12 and 3 month periods through January with 4,956,812 and 1,172,616 tons respectively (Figure 1). Mexico came in 4th in 12 months after Brazil and Korea but was bumped into 5th place by Russia […]
In the last three months the US dollar has strengthened against fourteen of the currencies of the major sixteen steel trading nations. In the last one month, that trend has reversed and eleven of the steel trading currencies have strengthened against the US dollar. Table 1 shows the number of currency units that it takes […]
Apparent supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. The three month moving average of the total tonnage of sheet and strip supply was 4,383,635 tons per month in the period November through January. This was down by 3.8 percent from the August through October period and up by 0.2 percent […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment beat the consensus expectation of a 150,000 gain in February by showing a net gain of 175,000 jobs. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the net gain has slowed for three consecutive months but the growth trajectory is still on track for a full […]
We are producing two articles on construction expenditures this evening. The one below is written by Peter Wright and delves into a much deeper analysis than our previous article. This is one of our Premium Level articles and gives you an idea of some of the content we share with our Premium Level members. Each […]
Steel Market Update covers subjects in a variety of ways for our specific member groups. In the article below, Peter Wright provides a deeper analysis of preliminary steel import license numbers for flat rolled steel products which normally goes to our Premium Level customers: This month we decided to start this piece with a review […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. The official statement […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty-six. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. The present situation of […]
The consumer confidence index declined by 1.3 in February driven by an increase of 4.4 in the present situation component and a decline of 5.4 in consumer expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations increased which caused the composite to rise from 76.3 to 78.3 (Figure 1). The […]
The US is experiencing a revolution in the oil and gas markets. The spot price of natural gas delivered to the Henry Hub in Louisiana has risen by 50 percent since January 10th and was $6.55 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Wednesday, February 19. This is the highest spot price in over five […]
The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada. Rigs are considered active from the time they break ground until the time they reach their target depth and may be establishing […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments jumped by 662,100 tons in January which was a smaller start-of-year bounce than either 2012 or 2013. January tons per day shipments increased by 24,000 to 158,500 tons. In January 2012 and 2013, tons per day shipments increased by 35,000 and 38,000 tons, respectively. Intake was 167,100 tons, leading […]
In 12 months through January 16,126,151 light vehicles and 440,473 medium and heavy trucks were assembled in the NAFTA. On a rolling 12 month basis year over year (y/y) light vehicle assemblies were up by 5.2 percent. In 3 months through January y/y the increase was 2.6 percent. Momentum is negative since the short term […]
Total housing starts in January were down 16 percent from December and 20.1 percent from November with very little difference between single and multi-family construction. That is the news headline but on a closer analysis the situation is not so dire. On a three month moving average basis the recent results form only a slight […]
Scrap exports closed out the year of 2103 at 18,470,000 tons, down by 2,888,702 tonnes or 13.5 percent from 2012. Turkey alone was down by 1,169,000 and the Far East as a whole was down by 942,000 tonnes or 9.9 percent. Figure 1 shows the three month moving average of total exports and of the […]
In the month since this analysis was last published, the US dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 nations that we consider to be major players in either the iron ore market or in steel product trade or both. Most notably, the Russian Rouble and the South African Rand have declined by 4.7 percent […]
Shipments of sheet and strip products in 2013 as a whole were 49,608,408 tons, a decrease of 1.7 percent from the total for 2012. Shipments in Q4 averaged 4,100,162 tons / month, a decrease of 2 percent from Q3 but an increase of 3.7 percent from Q4 last year. Comparing YTD shipments for 2013 to […]
Friday’s report has been well publicized as disappointing at 113,000 jobs created especially following the December result at 76,000. Less well appreciated is that the January report made revisions to data on payrolls, the workweek and earnings going back to 2009. Revisions to this data, which is drawn from a survey of employers, showed 369,000 […]
Total construction expenditures in December were $70.278 billion, up by 4.8 percent from December 2012. Fourth quarter expenditures were up by 4.2 percent year over year (y/y) and 2013, as a whole, was up by 6.3 percent from 2012. Private construction continues to be the driver, up by 6.4 percent in Q4 y/y but state […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of domestic banks and U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The January survey preamble was as follows: “The January 2014 Senior […]