The supply of all steel products in the 3 months March through May 2014 was up by 10.0 percent from the same period last year. Flat rolled was up by 11.6 percent and sheet products by 11.5 percent. The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade statistics and AISI steel shipment data. The […]
Apparent steel supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce. The three month moving average of the total tonnage of sheet and strip supply in the period March through May was 4,603,548 tons, up by 11.5 percent from […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 288,000 jobs were added in June, May was revised up by 7,000 to 224,000 and April up by 22,000 to 304,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose to 272,000 after four consecutive months of growth beginning in February at 150,000, (Figure 1). […]
We are including this article because it puts the Fed’s post-recession activities into perspective. Our recollection is that the European central bankers scoffed at the Federal Reserve quantitative easing and TARP programs when they were initiated in 2008. The European Central bank, (ECB) has taken the single currency block into uncharted waters by sending the […]
U.S. light vehicle sales increased in May to nearly 16.8 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, (SAAR) up from an average of 15.8 million units in the first five months of 2014 and the strongest rate since February 2007. Light vehicles are autos and light trucks (GVW Classes 1-3, under 14,001 lbs.). Automotive […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. The June PMI registered 55.3 percent, down slightly from 55.4 percent in May. Any number > 50 indicates expansion and this was the thirteenth straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA) advanced for the third consecutive […]
The following article is a Premium Level article written by Peter Wright: Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. May data was released on July 1st and all historical data was revised back to January 2008. This long term […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. The June PMI registered 55.3 percent, down slightly from 55.4 percent in May. Any number > 50 indicates expansion and this was the thirteenth straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA) advanced for the third consecutive […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. We have made two changes this month to try to make this even more representative of the market. Both the long and flat products shipment rows have been changed from “shipments” to […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimate of US GDP growth was a shocker at negative 2.9 percent, this came after the first estimate which was positive 0.1 percent and the second estimate at negative 1.0 percent. This raises the question of whether early estimates are worth considering. The first estimate for the second quarter […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Friday reported May results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials and this month for the first […]
U.S. light vehicle sales increased in May to nearly 16.8 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, (SAAR) up from an average of 15.8 million units in the first five months of 2014 and the strongest rate since February 2007. Light vehicles are autos and light trucks (GVW Classes 1-3, under 14,001 lbs.). Automotive […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. West Texas Intermediate closed at $107.08 and Brent at $115.19 on June 19th. In 10 days prior to the 19th WTI increased by $1.99 and Brent by $4.64 as the ISIS situation in Iraq increased market uncertainty. Oil and gas prices have both been […]
Global steel mill production in May on a tons per day basis was 4.554 million tonnes. The last three months have all been greater than 4.5 million for the first time ever which drove the three month moving average (3MMA) of production in May to another all-time high annual rate of 1.677 billion tonnes and […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in May declined by 56,600 tons to 3.584 million tons, April was the highest monthly shipping month since March two years ago. Shipping days in May were unchanged from April at 21. Tons per day (t/d) shipments declined from 173,300 in April to 170,600 in May, both on a […]
Total housing starts declined from 1,071,000 in April to 1,001,000 in May but the three month moving average (3MMA) increased from 983,000 in April to 1,007,000 in May. It looks as though April was a bounce back from the severe winter delays and that May reverted to trend. Figure 1 shows total housing starts from […]
Industry and economic data is always subject to inaccuracies so we at SMU try to compare different data sources to get the best handle on a situation. Housing and non-residential construction starts are examples that come to mind. In the case of steel imports we have three reports produced by the US Department of Commerce: […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months, (Figure 1) which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. The currencies of the steel trading nations have been fairly stable over the last month. Table 1 shows the number of […]
Year to date steel scrap exports through April are down by 25.2 percent from the same period last year. Total YTD was 4,761,374 metric tonnes a decline of 1,603,386 tonnes. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average (3MMA) picked up in April but was still below the monthly average of all years back […]
We are including this article because it puts the Fed’s post-recession activities into perspective. Our recollection is that the European central bankers scoffed at the Federal Reserve quantitative easing and TARP programs when they were initiated in 2008. The European Central bank, (ECB) has taken the single currency block into uncharted waters by sending the […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 217,000 jobs were added in May, April was revised down by 6,000 to 282,000 and March was unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose from 190,000 in March to 236,000 in April then declined by 2,000 in May, (Figure 1). All numbers […]
Total shipments of sheet and strip products including hot rolled, cold rolled and all coated products were up by 0.8 percent year to date (YTD) compared to the first four months of 2013. In the period January through April compared to the previous three months, the total tonnage was up by 4.8 percent. Comparing YTD […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. April data was released on June 2nd. Total Construction: Data is reported on both a seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted basis. In the SMU analysis we consider only the non-adjusted data and remove […]
Licensed data for May was updated on June 3rd through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in our […]
Licensed data for May was updated on June 3rd through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in our […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 1.3 in May. The view of the present situation rose by 1.9 as expectations rose by 0.9. These two components are converging, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, after which the view of the present situation will take the lead. On the whole consumer confidence […]
Durable Goods, a measure of the health of the steel industry, saw new orders increase for the fourth consecutive month in April ,continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession. Both March and April were above trend, (Figure 1). The three month moving average (3MMA) increased in both March and April, (Figure 2). […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in April rose by 125,500 tons to 3.640 million tons, the highest monthly tonnage since March two years ago. Shipping days in April were unchanged from March at 21. Tons per day (t/d) shipments rose from 167,400 March to 173,300 in April, both on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Intake […]
The housing market is struggling. Even though the steel content of housing is only a small proportion of total steel consumption, housing is a leading indicator of many construction sectors, such as non-residential and sub sectors of infrastructure, and has a large multiplier effect in the economy as a whole. Existing home sales dipped again […]