Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. July data was released on September 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board increased by 2.1 in August to 92.4. The view of the Present Situation rose by 6.7 to 94.6 as Expectations declined by 1.0 to 90. These two components have now crossed, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, and the view of […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in the Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the […]
Last Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis published data for the GDP of each state for the first time ever. Data now exists from Q2 2005 to Q4 2013 by state and region. Table 1 shows the regional value of GDP in chained 2009 dollars for 2013 as a whole, the annual growth as a […]
Last Wednesday the Bureau of Economic Analysis published data for the GDP of each state for the first time ever. Data now exists from Q2 2005 to Q4 2013 by state and region. Steel Market Update will start doing a regular analysis of this data for our Premium level users but wanted to share our […]
U.S. light vehicle sales declined slightly from June’s high level but, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million units, were still very strong. Sales have now exceeded 16.0 million units SAAR for five straight months. Sales in July of autos and light trucks were 8.0 and 8.5 million units, respectively. Autos declined […]
Production in July on a tons per day basis was 4.415 million metric tons, down from 4.590 in June. This was the first month since February when production was less than 4.5 million tons per day. This is not a seasonal effect. Since January 2008 on average, July production has been about the same as […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in July increased by 11,600 tons to 3.539 million tons. Shipping days also increased, from 21 to 22. On a tons per day basis, (t/d) shipments decreased from 168,000 tons in June to 160,900 in July but the latest data has the best shipments of any July since 2008. […]
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just released data on global oil production for 2013. The global total was just over 90 million barrels per day (bpd). The Middle East and North America produced 27,170,000 and 19,285,999 bpd, respectively. The United States was the world’s top oil producer at 12,302,000 bpd followed by Saudi Arabia […]
One of our contributing writers (and Steel 101 instructor) Peter Wright, analyzes foreign steel import data once every couple of months in order to see how accurate the license data is trending versus the Final Census data which is produced once per month (2 months behind receipt of foreign steel). We recently received Final Census […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Friday reported July results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials and rail vs truck transportation. […]
Explanation of Data Sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
In the week of August 2nd the four week moving average (4WMA) of raw steel production as reported by the AISI exceeded 1,900,000 tons per week, for the first time since June 16th 2012, (Figure 1). However, capacity utilization at 79.2 percent (4WMA) is still nowhere near where it was before the recession. Capacity is […]
In the 1st half of 2014, scrap exports totaled 7,580,485 metric tons, down by 23.5 percent from the 1st half of 2013. In the single month of June exports were 1,270,041 tons, down from May’s volume of 1.549,070 tons. May had by far the highest tonnage of the year, the June volume was in line […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and, in particular, debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and willingness to take […]
Total shipments of sheet and strip products including hot rolled, cold rolled and all coated products were down by 0.6 percent year to date (YTD) compared to the first half of 2013. In the second quarter of 2014 compared to the first quarter, the total tonnage was down by 0.7 percent and comparing Q2 2014 […]
License data for July was updated on August 5th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in our […]
The July 2014 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months. This summary is based on the responses from 75 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Below […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. June data was released on August 1st. Construction put in place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect the […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 209,000 jobs were added in July, June was revised up by 10,000 to 298,000 and May up by 5,000 to 229,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) declined to 245,000 in July after four consecutive months of growth beginning in February at 150,000, […]
On Wednesday this week the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2014, GDP and select components were revised back to […]
The SMU Key Market Indicators is a Premium Level product produced by Peter Wright in collaboration with Steel Market Update. Our Executive Level members have been getting access to all of the Premium Level data for the month of July (today is the last day). This includes access to all of the Premium data which […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.5 in June to 90.9. The view of the present situation rose by 2.0 to 88.3 as expectations rose by 6.3 to 92.7, these two components have now converged as they always do at this stage of a recovery after which the view of the present situation will take […]
Statistical data out of China is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and […]
Steel production in June on a tons per day basis was 4.571 million metric tons. The last four months have all been greater than 4.5 million metric tons per day for the first time ever. The three month moving average (3MMA) of production in June on an annualized basis was 1.658 billion metric tons and […]
A first glance suggests that the June housing starts report was depressing, total starts at 893,000 were down from 985,000 in May and 1,063,000 in April. However the three month moving average (3MMA) in June was 980,000 which was exactly the same as April. Not progress but not a calamity either. Even on a 3MMA […]
Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 103.92 for June, with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 103.6. This was the ninth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The 3MMA has expanded for 20 straight […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in June declined by 56,500 tons to 3.527 million tons. This was almost exactly the same decline as experienced in May and which together almost wiped out the April gain. Shipping days were 21 in June, the same as in April and May. April was the highest monthly shipping […]