The October Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on November 3rd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 76 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. September data was released on November 3rd. Construction put in place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect the […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd and the report surprised analysts on the upside. The October purchasing managers index, PMI registered 59.0 up from the 56.6 reading in September and equal to the August result. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the seventeenth straight month in which […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd and the report surprised analysts on the upside. The October purchasing managers index, PMI registered 59.0 up from the 56.6 reading in September and equal to the August result. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the seventeenth straight month in which […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close with the Feds reporting total job creation in Q3 of 671,000 and the states reporting 661,200. All regions had solid job creation in the 3rd Q led by the South Central […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered has been increased by one this month to thirty six. We have added the price of coking coal FOB the Australian East Coast to the raw […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q3 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. The annualized growth rate in the third quarter was 3.50 percent which was down from 4.51 percent in Q2 but still exceeded most analysts’ expectations. GDP is measured and reported in […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index Shows Economic Growth Picked up […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board bounced back in October and the dismal September results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 89.0 (first reported as 86.0) to 94.9, the view of the present situation rose from 93.0 (first reported as 89.4) to 93.7 as expectations rose from 86.4 (first reported […]
Statistical data out of China is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and […]
Production in September on a tons per day basis was 4.481 million tonnes, up from 4.342 in August. This was the third month since February when production was <4.5 million tons per day. For the month of September production was 134.421 million tonnes down from 135.167 in August. This was a seasonal effect, due to […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 in August and by October 14th was down to $81.72, the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration, (EIA.) Brent closed at $86.36 on the same day. The EIA has calculated […]
Housing starts in September increased to an annual rate of 1,017,000 units from 957,000 in August. The three month moving average (3MMA) increased from 988,000 to 1,024,000 units, (Figure 1). This was the first time since January that the 3MMA had exceeded a million units. The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA of […]
Light vehicle sales in the US declined in September to 16.4 million units from the blistering 17.5 million rate in August, both on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. The spread between light trucks and autos increased to one million units in favor of light trucks. The third quarter pace was Ta very strong 16.8 million […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in September increased by 21,100 to 3.498 million tons. Shipping days were unchanged at 21. On a tons per day basis, (t/d) shipments increased from 165,600 tons in August to 166,600 in September. In each of the last four months t/d shipments for each particular month was the best […]
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) made the following statement this week: “Despite setbacks, an uneven global recovery continues. Largely due to weaker-than-expected global activity in the first half of 2014, the growth forecast for the world economy has been revised downward to 3.3 percent for this year, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April […]
Following the post-recession recovery, shipments of hot rolled steel from US mills to domestic locations have been trending in a range for three years. Shipments of hot dipped galvanized sheet and strip declined strongly in Q2 through Q4 2012 and have climbed slightly in 2014. Cold rolled shipments have shown little direction for almost two […]
Licensed data for September was updated on October 3rd through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in our […]
In the first eight months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 10,404,531 metric tons, down by 18.7 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of August exports were 1,575,716 tonnes, this was the highest volume month of the year, beating out May by 26,000 tons. Figure 1 shows that the three month […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. August data was released on October 1st. Construction put in place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect the […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined sharply in September, particularly in the expectations component. The composite fell from 93.4 to 86.0, the view of the present situation fell from 93.9 to 89.4 as expectations declined from 93.1 to 83.7. In closer examination, it looks as though the August view of […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts last Friday. The annualized growth rate was revised up from 3.95 percent in the first estimate to 4.17 percent in the second estimate to 4.59 percent in this the third estimate. GDP is […]
Durable goods orders in August fell back to the long term trend line after the huge surge in July, continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession (Figure 1). The three month moving average (3MMA) increased for the sixth straight month (Figure 2). The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA grew […]
Production in August on a tons per day basis was 4.342 million tonnes, down from 4.424 in July. This was the second month since February when production was <4.5 million metric tons per day. This is a seasonal effect, since January 2008 on average, August production has declined by 1.76 percent from July. This year […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in August decreased by 61,400 tons to 3.477 million tons. Shipping days also decreased from 22 to 21. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments increased from 160,900 tons in July to 165,600 in August. All three months June, July and August had the best t/d shipments of […]
The following article was produced by Peter Wright, contributing writer and Steel 101 instructor for Steel Market Update. Economy.com reported as follows on the August U.S. vehicles sales volume: the year-to-date pace of 16.4 million units SAAR is the best since 2006, when it was 16.55 million. The strong recovery of the U.S. auto industry […]
Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization for August 2014: Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 104.12 for August, a decline of 0.1 percent from July. This is another example where the individual month’s result can be misleading. The three month […]
At least once per month, Steel Market Update produces an update on the various currencies associated with steel trading nations. The following information is as of late last week and was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright. Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily […]
Apparent supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the total tonnage of sheet and strip supply in the period May through July was 4,942,917 tons, up […]
In the first seven months of 2014, total ferrous steel scrap exports totaled 8,828,815 metric tons, down by 20.6 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of July exports were 1,248,330 tons, down from June’s volume of 1,270,041 tons. May had by far the highest tonnage of the year, the July […]