Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 in August and by December 15th was down to $55.96, the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration, (EIA.) Brent closed at $61.09 on the same day. Natural gas delivered to […]
Jawad Mian wrote, “The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer. The reason oil prices started sliding in June can be explained by record growth in US production, […]
Production in November on a tons per day basis was 4.351 million tonnes, down from 4.411 in October. November had one fewer production day than October and the month’s total decreased from 136.363 million to 130.525 tons. Since January 2008 on average, November monthly production has decreased by 5.36 percent, this year November decreased by […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in November decreased by 763,700 tons to 2.979 million tons. This was mainly due to a decrease in shipping days from 23 to 19. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments also decreased from 162,700 in October to 156,800. In the eleven years 2004 through 2014 November shipments […]
Starts in November declined to an annual rate 1,028,000, the same as the number for September but down from 1,045,000 in October. The three month moving average, (3MMA) rose to 1,034,000, (Figure 1). This was the third consecutive month that the 3MMA of starts exceeded a million units. The year over year growth rate of […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.66 for November an increase of 1.26 percent from October. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.75 which was the highest value ever and the sixth straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The currency markets continue to be dominated by a strengthening dollar and a weakening of third world currencies in particular. Hyun Song Shin, who chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, gives a lot of thought to the implications of the current situation. In recent presentations at the Brookings Institution, Mr. Shin […]
Steel import data is reported three times for each month. These reports are licensed, preliminary and final tonnages for each product. The Steel Import Monitoring system has been a widely used tool to provide an advanced look at import volumes using data compiled from import licenses. These licenses can be applied for at any time […]
The following article is by Peter Wright for our Premium level members. We decided to share the article with all of our readers this evening as a way of providing an example of Premium level content and analysis to our Executive readers. Following the post-recession recovery, shipments of hot band from US mills to domestic […]
The supply of sheet products had strong positive growth in the 3 months period August through October year over year being up by 12.4 percent and led by hot band which was up by 16.1 percent (Table 1). The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade statistics and AISI steel shipment data. These […]
In the first ten months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 12,905,000 metric tons, down by 17.6 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of October exports were 1,337,000 tons. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average has been fairly consistent for the last six months through October and continued […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 321,000 jobs were added in November, October and September were revised up by a total of 44,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) of gains was the highest since May 2010 at 278,000. This job recovery is stronger than was the case in […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. October data was released on December 2nd. Construction put in place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their November report on December 2nd and after the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back slightly from 59.0 to 58.7. However, this is still the third best result of the year. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the eighteenth straight month for which this […]
Durable goods orders in October rose by 0.4 percent from September to $243.8 billion but the three month moving average (3MMA) declined by 7.1 percent. The problem with the 3MMA was that the huge surge in July which was driven by civil aircraft fell out of the calculation. The October result is close to the […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board declined in November and the October results were revised downwards. The composite fell from 94.1 to 88.7, the view of the present situation declined from 94.4 to 91.3 as expectations fell from 93.8 to 87.0. The three month moving averages (3MMA) also declined. The 3MMA […]
Total light vehicle sales were little changed in October at 16.5 million units, up from 16.4 million in September, both on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. The spread between light trucks and autos, which in September was one million units in favor of light trucks, decreased to 0.5 million. On a y/y basis total light […]
Industrial production and manufacturing capacity utilization, both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP Index was reported as 104.86 for October a decline of 0.11 percent from September. This is another example where the individual months result can be misleading. The three month moving average (3MMA) was […]
Starts in October fell to an annual rate of 1,009,000 units from 1,038,000 in September. The three month moving average (3MMA) decreased from 1,033,000 units to 1003,000, (Figure 1). This was the second time since January that the 3MMA had exceeded a million units. The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA of total […]
Production in October on a tons per day basis was 4.411 million tons, down from 4.485 in September. This was the fourth month since February when production was <4.5 million metric tons per day. October had one more production day than September and the month’s total increased from 134.562 million to 136.838. Since January 2008 […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in October increased by 244,000 tons to 3.742 million tons. This was due to an increase in shipping days from 21 to 23. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments decreased from 166,600 tons in September to 162,700 in October. In every month this year since March, t/d […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Tuesday reported October results. We run this analysis every three months to give readers an opportunity to become aware of any changes in the competitive position of steel against […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 214,000 jobs were added in October, September and August were revised up by 8,000 and 23,000 respectively. The three month moving average, (3MMA) has declined for four straight months but this job recovery is stronger than was the case in the mid-2000s, (Figure […]
Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
Apparent supply, a proxy for market demand is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the US Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the total tonnage of sheet and strip supply in the period July […]
Licensed data for October was updated on November 4th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Department of Commerce. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in […]
Occasionally we publish a piece on the state of the Eurozone because we regard the inevitable future transformation (disintegration) of this region to be of immense significance to the US steel industry. The following was written by Ambrose Evans Pritchard and published in the UK Daily Telegraph on Monday November 10th. Mario Draghi’s Efforts to […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and, in particular, debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and willingness to take […]
In the first nine months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 11,586,000 tonnes, down by 19.4 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of September exports were 1,163,489 tonnes, this was the second lowest month of the year following August which was the highest month. That’s why, in most cases, SMU uses […]
The World Steel Association published its 2014 statistical year book this week with data through 2013. Figure 1 shows total crude steel production in the U.S. since 1880 in short tons. The peak production was 150,483,000 tons in 1973. The final total for 2013 was 95,566,000 tons, down by 2.05 percent from 97,565,000 in 2012. […]