Last month we began to report on domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to be able to compare side by side demand and the degree to which imports have absorbed that demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by […]
The Q1 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on February 2nd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 73 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 257,000 jobs were added in January. As we were analyzing this date we noticed massive historical revisions and had to go back to January 2000 (15 years!) before were confident we had caught them all. In the 12 months of 2014, job creation […]
Licensed data for January was updated on February 3rd through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in our […]
The following article is normally produced just for our Premium level members. We are sharing the information today with all of our readers. The article is written by Peter Wright, consultant to Steel Market Update, Gerdau and the State of Wyoming. Peter, who is a metallurgist as well as market specialist, is also one of […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their January report on February 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back once again from 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January. The three month moving average has declined for […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are reasonably close with the Feds reporting total job creation in 2014 of 2,968,000 and the states reporting 2,664,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of Federal and State totals since […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q4 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the 4th Q disappointed economic pundits by coming in at 2.64 percent after increasing by almost 5.0 percent in Q3. GDP is measured and reported in […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board rose strongly in January and the December results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 93.1 to 102.9, the view of the present situation rose from 99.9 to 102.6 as expectations rose from 88.5 to 96.4. This was the first time for the composite to […]
Turmoil continues in the global currency markets as the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing program last week, S&P downgraded Russian debt to junk status yesterday, the Greek national election on Sunday will result in a strong resistance to EU mandated austerity programs and the Swiss removed the currency cap vs the Euro last […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index shows economic growth slowed in […]
New orders for durable goods in December fell by 3.4 percent from November’s level to $230.5 billion, economists had expected a 0.5 percent gain. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell by 1.7 percent. The December result is a sharp deviation from the trend line that has existed since the recession, (Figure 1). The huge […]
Starts in December rose to an annual rate 1,089,000 from 1,043,000 in November. The three month moving average, (3MMA) rose to 1,075,000, (Figure 1). This was the fourth consecutive month that the 3MMA of starts exceeded a million units. The year / year growth rate of the 3MMA of total starts in December was 4.8 […]
December was another strong month for light vehicle sales at 16.9 million units and following the very strong November result of 17.2 million units (annualized). This was the second best result since August. In 2014 as a whole sales were 16.5 million units, up from 15.6 million in 2013 and the best sales result since […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in December increased by 16,900 tons to 2.996 million tons. This was mainly due to an increase in shipping days from 19 to 22. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments decreased from 156,800 to 136,200. In the eleven years 2004 through 2014 December shipments on average have […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.51 for December a decline of 0.1 percent from November. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 106.13 which was the highest value ever and the seventh straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 in August and by January 12th was down to $46.06, the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Brent closed at $46.90 on the same day. There is no sign […]
In previous months we have reported on steel mill shipments and total supply to the market separately in alternate months with reference to imports which account for most of the difference. In future we will report on shipments and supply in one single report to measure the degree to which imports have absorbed the increased […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 252,000 jobs were added in December, November and October were revised up by a total of 50,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) of gains in December was second only to November as the highest since May 2010 at 289,000. This job recovery […]
In the first eleven months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 14,251,000 tonnes (metric tons), down by 15.7 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of November exports were 1,347,000 tonnes, almost unchanged from October. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average has been declining slightly for the last seven […]
This is our second article about foreign steel imports where we look deeper into imports from a three month moving average perspective. We also look at the complete picture by analyzing both long and flat rolled steel products. License data for December was updated on January 6th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the […]
The value of the U.S. dollar is having a major impact on commodity, scrap and steel pricing. The strengthening of the dollar is something that Steel Market Update is watching very closely. We are therefor going to increase the number of times we provide currency updates from once per month to every three weeks (and […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. November data was released on January 2nd. Construction put in place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index retreated again in December. The Institute of Supply Management released their December report on January 2nd and after the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back once again from 59.0 to 58.7 in November and to 55.5 in December, however this is still equal to the average for the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board rose in December and the November results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 91.0 to 92.6, the view of the present situation rose from 93.7 to 98.6 as expectations fell from 89.3 to 88.5. The three month moving averages (3MMA) of the composite and […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index shows economic growth picked up […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium level members, but due to our holiday publishing schedule, we decided to share it with all of our readers. If you are interested in receiving our Premium product you may contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com or (800) 432 3475. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the […]
November was a strong month for light vehicle sales rising to 17.2 million units, (annualized) from 16.5 million in October. This was the best result since August. So far in 2014 sales are averaging 16.45 million units, the best rate since 2006. Light trucks increased faster than automobiles in November presumably boosted by low gas […]