The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q4 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate of 4th quarter GDP was unchanged from the second estimate which was 2.2 percent but down from the first estimate which was 2.64 […]
New orders for durable goods in February fell by 1.4 percent from January’s level to $231.3 billion; economists had expected a 0.3 percent gain. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell by 1.0 percent. There has been a sharp deviation from the trend line in the last three months (Figure 1). The huge spike in […]
On a seasonally adjusted annual rate, light vehicle sales weakened in February to 16.2 million units, down from 16.7 million units in January but still up by 5.2 percent from February last year. The probable cause was inclement weather at the end of the month. Analysts had been expecting sales at a 16.7 million annual […]
This month we will start with words from Armada Executive intelligence which sum up the present situation nicely: “Last week it was made abundantly clear just how sensitive the markets are to the discussions at the Fed. There was a perception that Janet Yelled was pushing an interest rate increase off to at least September. […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.8 for February a slight increase of 0.08 from January. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.87, down by 0.17 from January which was the highest value ever and the ninth straight month where the […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide at Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end of this piece. This is normally an article reserved for […]
Global steel production in 12 months through February totaled 1.628 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.2 billion tonnes which yields a utilization for the 12 month period of 74 percent. China accounted for 51 percent of global production in February. Asia as a whole, including India, accounted for 68.4 percent of global production. Production […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in February decreased by 182,800 tons to 3.185 million tons. Shipping days at 20 were one less than February. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments decreased from 160,400 in January to 159,300 in February. In the eleven years since 2004 February shipments on average have been 0.1 […]
Housing starts in February declined by 184,000 annualized to 897,000 from 1,081,000 in January. This data is seasonally adjusted by the Census department. The three month moving average, (3MMA) fared much better declining to 1,020,000 from 1,059,000 which was a blip in a steadily improving trajectory, (Figure 1). This was the sixth consecutive month that […]
The energy sector has been one of the critical steel-using market segments which is impacting the steel industry at this time. There are two separate issues at the moment, exploration and production, and they are moving in opposite directions. The exploratory rig count is collapsing and production is increasing. Figure 1 shows historical gas and […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in January were almost double that which existed before the recession. The […]
In the twelve months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes, down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of January 2015 exports were 1,148,422 which is an annual rate of 13,781,062 tons. Figure 1 shows that the monthly average declined for three consecutive years, 2012 through 2014 and […]
The following article is usually available to our Premium level members only. This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment reported that 295,000 jobs were added in February, the January result was revised down by 18,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of gains through February was 288,000. This job recovery is now seen to be much stronger than was the case in the mid-2000s […]
Licensed data for February was updated on March 3rd through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. Steel Market Update publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is published in […]
The following article is normally produced just for our Premium level members. We are sharing the information today with all of our readers. The article is written by Peter Wright, consultant to Steel Market Update, Gerdau and the State of Wyoming. Peter, who is a metallurgist as well as market specialist, is also one of […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their February report on March 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January and to 52.9 in February. The three month moving average […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined in February after a very strong increase in January. In addition, the January results were revised upwards. In February the composite fell from 103.8 to 96.4, the view of the present situation fell from 113.9 to 110.2 as expectations fell from 97.0 to 87.2. […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Wednesday reported January results. We run this analysis every three months to give readers an opportunity to […]
Global steel production in 2014 totaled 1.627 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.2 billion tonnes which yields an average utilization for the year of 74 percent. China accounted for 51 percent of global production in 2014. Asia as a whole, including India, accounted for almost 70 percent of global production. Production in January on […]
The vehicle sales year had a good start in January with 16.7 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Light trucks are benefiting from lower gas prices and reached 55 percent of light vehicle sales, the highest since 2014. This is good for the US assembly plants because the US light truck production is […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments in January increased by 372,400 tons to 3.368 million tons. There was a decrease of one shipping day to 21 in January. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments increased from 126,200 in December to 160,400 in January. In the eleven years since 2004 January shipments on average […]
Housing starts in January declined by 22,000 annualized to 1,065,000 from 1,087,000 in December. This data is seasonally adjusted by Census department. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell to 1,056,000 but is still on a steadily improving trajectory, (Figure 1). This was the fifth consecutive month that the 3MMA of starts exceeded a million […]
The first graphic depicted below shows published Chinese data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q4 2014. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters and has been declining since Q1 2010. […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100 in August and by January 23rd was down to $44.80. By February 9th, the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the price of WTI had recovered to $52.99. Brent […]
In the twelve months of 2014, ferrous scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes (metric tons), down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of December scrap exports were 1,056,570 tonnes, down 21.5 percent from November. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average (3MMA) has been declining slightly for […]
Import data is reported three times for each month. These reports are licensed, preliminary and final tonnages for each product. The Steel Import Monitoring system has been a widely used tool to provide an advanced look at import volumes using data compiled from import licenses. These licenses can be applied for at any time between […]