In the twelve months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes, down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the first three months of this year exports were 3,254,765 for an annual rate of 13,019,060 tonnes. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported that 223,000 jobs were added in April but the March result was revised down by 41,000 to a mere 85,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) of gains through April was 191,000 and the combined result for March and April was the lowest since […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index of the US $ against our major trading partners is reported about one month in arrears. In one month through about April 12th this index weakened by 1.9 percent which was a sharp reversal from the previous seven month trend. The monthly BI is a “Real” […]
The Q2 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on May 4th. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 76 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
Licensed data for April was updated on May 5th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is available to our […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. March data was released on May 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their April report on May 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January, to 52.9 in February and to 51.5 in March it […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last nine quarters since Q1 2013, the Feds reported total job creation of 5,992,000 and the states reported 5,895,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of Q1 GDP was 0.2 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board fell sharply in April as March was revised upwards slightly. In April the composite value which combines the view of the present situation and expectations fell from 101.4 to 95.2. The view of the present situation fell from 109.5 to 106.8 but the big change […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 105.22 for March, down by 0.64 from February. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 105.63, down by 0.34 from February. January was the highest value ever of the 3MMA at 106.11. The Y/Y growth rate […]
The graphic below shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the 1st Q of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2014, declined to 7.0 percent in […]
The energy markets, especially oil and natural gas, are major users of flat rolled steel and plate products. As oil prices have fallen the production of pipe & tube and related products for the energy segment of the economy have fallen significantly. This has had a major impact on hot rolled coil production and pricing. […]
March vehicle sales brought welcome new by bouncing back vigorously to 17.15 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, up from 16.23 million units in February. The March 2015 sales pace was 4 percent higher than the March 2014 pace. Cars had the greatest growth from 7.2 million units in February to 7.7 in […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide at Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end of this piece. This is normally an article reserved for […]
Global steel production in 12 months through March totaled 1.626 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.2 billion tonnes which yields a utilization for the 12 month period of 73.9 percent. China accounted for 50.3 percent of global production in March. Asia as a whole, including India, accounted for 68.3 percent of global production. Production […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index of the US dollar against our major trading partners is reported about one month in arrears. Through early March this index continued to strengthen and reached 94.686, after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation […]
Starts in March rose by 14,000 to 926,000 after the revised decline of 164,000 in February. This data is seasonally adjusted by the Census department and the monthly numbers are annualized. The three month moving average, (3MMA) declined from 1,020,000 in February to 969,000 in March (Figure 1). The projection to 1.6 million in 2018 […]
Total service center carbon steel shipments increased in March by 321,400 tons to 3.507 million tons. Shipping days at 22 were 2 more than February. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments increased from 159,300 in February to 159,400 in March. In the twelve years since 2004, March shipments on average have been 1.2 […]
The following is a global forecast provided by the IMF this week. We provided an abridged statement from the IMF which is then followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. This is a piece normally reserved for our Premium members but […]
The following article is was provided to our Premium customers on Friday afternoon, and we felt it would be a good article to share with our Executive members as an example of what a Premium level membership has to offer. We also published Imports by Product, Port, and Country and our Market Survey Results to […]
Licensed data for March was updated on April 7th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is available to our […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both supply and mill shipments of sheet […]
In the twelve months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes, down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the first two months of this year exports were 2,026,675 for an annual rate of 12,161,050 tonnes. Figure 1 shows that the monthly average declined for three consecutive years, 2012 through 2014 and […]
The Bureau of labor Statistics, (BLS) reported on Friday: “Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 126,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade, while mining lost jobs. The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their March report on April 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January, to 52.9 in February and to 51.5 in March. Any […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. February data was released on April 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board increased in March and February’s disappointing decline was lessened by an upward revision. In March the composite value which combines the view of the present situation and expectations rose from 98.8 to 101.3. The view of the present situation fell from 112.1 to 109.1 (but […]