Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate closed at $44.94 on August 10th after recovering to $59.53 on June 15th. In the last two weeks WTI has declined by $2.23 according to the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration, […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in June continue to be more than double that which existed before […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The following article was written by Peter Wright, consultant and instructor associated with Steel Market Update. Mr. Wright writes a more detailed article for our Premium level clients that spells out details of currency changes for all of the steel trading nations. He noticed that the Chinese government is intervening in the value of their […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of August […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 215,000 jobs were added in July which was slightly less than consensus expectations. May and June were revised up by a total of 14,000. Monthly job gains have averaged 246,500 over the past seven months. In the 12 months through July, […]
In the first six months of this year bulk scrap exports were 6,893,000 metric tonnes for an annual rate of 13,786,000 tonnes, down by 9.1 percent from the first six months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly […]
Licensed data for July was updated on August 4th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. Steel Market Update publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is available to […]
The Q3 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on August 3rd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 71 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. June data was released on Monday August 2nd. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their July report on August 3rd. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the index gained 1.3 points in May a further 0.7 points in June then declined by 0.8 points in July to 52.7 with […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
SMU previously published this article with incorrect graphics, the corrected ones are below. Our apologies for the mistake. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. In the big picture, the change (delta) in GDP is equal to the […]
New orders for durable goods in June increased by 3.4 percent month on month to $235.337 billion. This exceeded analysts’ expectations but the strongest component was an increase in civil aircraft orders. Orders for motor vehicles and parts retained their strength. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined by 0.2 percent. The 3MMA has been […]
Consumer confidence took a big hit in July, according to the Conference Board with a decline from June’s 99.8 to a 10-month low of 90.9. In addition there was a downward revision to June’s result. It was a steep slide in the expectations subcomponent that pulled the composite value lower. The official news release from […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last six quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 4,320,000 and the states reported 4,093,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in at Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
Global steel production in 12 months through June totaled 1.622 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.2 billion tonnes. Capacity utilization on a three month moving average, (3MMA) basis was 71.6 percent, down from 72 percent in three months through May. China accounted for 50.8 percent of global production in June. Asia as a whole, […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q2 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was unchanged in the Q2 at 7.0 percent which was faster than the 6.8 percent median forecast of 39 […]
Following the exceptional rate of vehicle sales in the US in May the June rate fell from 17.8 million annualized to 17.2 million which is a more sustainable rate. The June pace was still higher than the 16.9 million units average of the past 12 months. Demand is being supported by easier credit terms, sustained […]
This piece, written by Peter Wright, combines our own data analysis with recently published opinions about the iron ore, metallurgical coal and zinc markets that we find credible. Iron Ore: The Platts IODEX of 62% Fe delivered North China recovered to $61.25 per dry metric ton (dmt) on May 22nd but by July 10th had […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate fell below $100/barrel in August and by January 23rd was down to $44.80. By June 15th, the price of WTI had recovered to $59.53. In the last 30 days through July 13th WTI has declined again […]
We had begun to think that our projection for total housing starts to reach 1.6 million units annualized by the end of 2018 was optimistic but the June report put that projection back on track. Total starts in June were at an annual rate of 1,174,000 with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 1,144,000. […]
There seems to be more inaccurate analysis published on this subject than on any other that we track at Steel Market Update. For example on Saturday AMM reported that, “US steel service center shipments improved in June compared with the previous month ——-.” At a superficial level this statement is correct, but as an analysis […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. This month the […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in May, continue to be more than double that which existed before […]
In the first five months of this year bulk scrap exports were 5,724,456 tonnes for an annual rate of 13,741,000 tonnes, down by 9.3 percent from the first five months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly average […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the index gained 1.3 points in May and a further 0.7 points in June to end at 53.5 with a three month moving […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported that 223,000 jobs were added in June which was in line with expectations. April and May were revised down by a total of 60,000. Monthly job gains have averaged 221,000 over the past three months. In the 12 months prior to June, employment growth […]