The following article is one produced for our Premium level members as we look to delve deeper into the overall steel industry picture in the United States. You can learn more about becoming a Premium member either online or by contacting our office: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an […]
The following article is another example of Premium level content that is not normally seen by our Executive level members. If you would like to learn more about upgrading your membership from Executive to Premium please contact our office: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone: 800-432-3475. This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the […]
The following article is one that is produced for our Premium level members once we release the latest Imports by Product, Port & Country data into our website. In this article we want to give you a little feel for the data. Once you start reviewing imports by port you can begin to ask questions […]
In the first nine months of this year bulk scrap exports were 9,968,048 tonnes for an annual rate of 13,290,731 tonnes, down by 13.8 percent from the first nine months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 271,000 jobs were added in October, which was well above economist’s consensus expectations. August’s gains were revised up by 17,000, but September’s were revised down by 5,000. This followed September’s result of 137,000 which was well below consensus expectations of about […]
The Q4 2015 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on November 2nd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 69 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches and […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of November […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. September data was released on Monday November 2nd. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
License data for October was updated on November 3rd through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. At SMU we perform a detailed analysis of this data, an explanation of our methodology is given at the end of this write up. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of October were […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had positive growth on a month over month basis in June and July but […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of the third quarter was 1.49 percent, down from 3.91 percent, in the third estimate of Q2. GDP is measured and reported in […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $45.91 on October 17th, according to the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Brent closed at $47.51 on the same day. WTI was down from $46.67 in 30 days […]
Consumer confidence continued this year’s highly erratic trend in the October data. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month this year than last. In all of 2014 the monthly change ranged from +5.1 to -4.4, this year the range has been +10.7 to […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are very close. In the last six quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 4,849,000 and the states reported 4,475,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of […]
In September, vehicle sales reached a new post-recession high of almost 18.2 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This followed the August rate of 17.8 million units. Both at the time were the best pace since July 2005, when incentives caused sales to surge. Sales in September were 10 percent higher than the […]
Global steel production in 12 months through September totaled 1.613 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.3 billion tonnes. Capacity utilization in September was 69.3 percent with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 69.1 percent, down from 72.2 percent in three months through April. China accounted for 50.5 percent of global production in September. […]
Total housing starts in September were at an annual rate of 1,206,000 which was only the second time to break 1,200,000 since the recession. The first was in June. In September the three month moving average (3MMA) was 1,163,000 which was also the second best month since the recession. The best month was last month, […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q3 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.9 percent in the third Q, beating forecasts for 6.8 percent growth, but decelerating to its slowest pace […]
This report is a trial balloon and we ask your opinion as to whether such an analysis for the three major sheet products would be of interest. If so, we would go to the expense of purchasing data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau, in the UK for the global trade of HR, CR […]
Based on Steel Market Update (SMU) analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory and shipment data, total service center carbon steel shipments decreased by 55,000 tons in September to 3.105 million tons. Shipping days at 21, were unchanged from August. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments decreased from 150,500 tons in […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in November last year but on a month over month basis has declined for eight of the first nine months of 2015. On a year over year basis using a three month moving average […]
We have two data sources for this report: the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily Broad Index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of October 15th the […]
We include here an abridged statement from the IMF that was released last week and in which the commodity situation looms large. Followed by our Steel Market Update data analysis and comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2020. Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference Good morning. I have […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
SMU has developed a series of foreign steel import reports that enable steel buyers and company executives to see exactly how much imported steel has entered their immediate vicinity and where it came from. This series of reports includes hot rolled, cold rolled, Hot Dipped Galvanized, other metallic coated (mainly Galvalume) as well as semi-finished […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 142,000 jobs were added in September which was well below consensus expectations of about 200,000. In addition July was revised down from 245,000 to 223,000 and August was revised down from 173,000 to 136,000. An upward revision for August had been […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. August data was released on Thursday October 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
Licensed data for September was updated on October 6th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is available to our […]