Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. November data was released on Monday January 4th and data for private construction was revised back to January 2005, almost eleven years. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work […]
Consumer confidence improved from 92.6 in November to 96.5 in December. The very disappointing November result was revised upwards. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined from 98.1 in November to 96.1 in December. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month than 2014. […]
On December 16th the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate for the first time in almost a decade. In the United States, the federal funds rate is “the interest rate” at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) actively trade balances held at the Federal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q3 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Monday. The annualized growth rate in the 3rd estimate of the 3rd quarter was 1.99 percent, down from 3.91 percent, in the 3rd estimate of Q2. GDP is measured and reported in […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of the direction of steel demand with a six to nine month […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last week reported results through November. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate closed at $36.31 on December 14th, down from $45.91 on October 17th, according to the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Brent closed at $36.51 on December 14th. WTI was down from […]
The following article is normally produced for our Premium level members, but we wanted to share it with our Executive level members as we think it is important and interesting as the world is flooded with excess steel capacity. If you find this article interesting you may be interested in upgrading your membership from Executive […]
In November, vehicle sales in the US maintained their very high seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18.2 million units for the third consecutive month. All the growth this year has been in light trucks which includes crossovers. Sales in November were 6.2 percent higher than the same month a year ago. Year to date sales […]
Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in November last year but on a month over month (m/m) basis has declined for nine of the first eleven months of 2015. This contrasts sharply with last year when in only one […]
Total housing starts in November were at an annual rate of 1,173,000 which was up from 1,062,000 in October. Since April total monthly starts annualized have ranged from 1,062,000 to 1,211,000 with the high month being June. In November the three month moving average (3MMA) was 1,147,000 which was up from 1,128,000 in October. August […]
The following article is one that is produced for our Premium level members once we release the latest Imports by Product, Port & Country data into our website. In this article we want to give you a little feel for the data. Once you start reviewing imports by port you can begin to ask questions […]
This report is a detailed drill down into imports of hot band through October, beginning with the big picture and ending with exactly what came into a region of significance to your business and where it came from. SMU has developed a series of reports that cover hot rolled, cold rolled, HDG, other metallic coated […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Based on Steel Market Update (SMU) analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory and shipment data, total service center carbon steel shipments decreased by 482,000 tons in November to 2.728 million tons. Shipping days at 20, were down by two from October. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments decreased from 145,900 […]
In the first ten months of this year bulk scrap exports were 10,889,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 14,519,000 tonnes, down by 15.6 percent from the first ten months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average […]
Licensed data for November was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on December 4th. At SMU we perform a detailed analysis of this data, an explanation of our methodology is given at the end of this write up. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of November […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 211,000 jobs were added in November, which was in line with economist’s consensus expectations. Both September and October were revised up by a total of 38,000. The three month moving (3MMA) of gains through November was 218,000. The unemployment rate, U3, […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. October data was released on Tuesday December 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their November report on December 1st with a value of 48.6 which is the lowest since June 2009. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had positive […]
New orders for durable goods in October rose by 3.4 percent month on month to $239.976 billion. This result was better than analyst’s expectations, largely as a result of a surge in the transportation component where non-defense aircraft increased by 81 percent. Motor vehicle and parts orders fell 2.9 percent after rising 1.0 percent in […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve Daily Broad Index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of November […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Consumer confidence declined markedly in November continuing this year’s highly erratic trend and, in fact, the view of the present situation and expectations exhibited the sharpest reversal since November 2011 when they went the other way. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of the direction of steel demand with a six to nine month […]
In October, vehicle sales had another small gain from September’s post-recession high of almost 18.2 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This followed the August rate of 17.8 million units. Both at the time were the best pace since July 2005, when incentives caused sales to surge. Sales in October were 10 percent […]
SMU contributing writer, Peter Wright, evaluates the oil and gas industry on a monthly basis for Steel Market Update. Energy markets are large users of hot rolled as well as pipe and tube steels. The energy market’s slowdown is one of the key reasons why the domestic steel industry has slowed this year. Figure 1 […]
Total housing starts in October were at an annual rate of 1,060,000 which was the lowest number since March. In October the three month moving average (3MMA) was 1,122,000 which was down from 1,153,000 in September and from 1,160,000 in August. August had the highest 3MMA since the recession so the sky is not falling. […]
Global steel production in 12 months through October totaled 1.609 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.3 billion tonnes. Production in the month of October was 133,640 tonnes up from 130,998 in September or 2.0 percent, however on a tons/day basis production was 4.311 million tonnes, down from 4.367 in September and from 4.518 in April […]
Based on Steel Market Update (SMU) analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory and shipment data, total service center carbon steel shipments increased by 104,700 tons in October to 3.201 million tons. Shipping days at 22, were up by one from September. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments decreased from 147,900 […]