Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of Chinese GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the fourth quarter of 2015. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.8 percent in the 4th quarter, and decelerating to its slowest pace since the […]
In 2015, 4.9 million metric tons of slabs were imported into the US. Of that tonnage 1.8 million tonnes (1,984 million net tons) came into Mobile (bound for AMNS Calvert) and 1.2 million (1.322 million net tons) into Los Angeles (bound for California Steel). Most of the Mobile tonnage came from Brazil and the Los […]
This report summarizes total steel supply annually from 2007 through 2015 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
In the twelve eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 12,955,000 metric tonnes, down by 9.7 percent from 2014 (14,280,000 net tons). The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous years. The graph shows that exports declined for three […]
The following article is normally reserved for our Premium members only, but we felt it would be a good one to share with all of our readers. If you are interested in upgrading to a Premium membership or would like to trial it, contact our office at (800) 432 3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The Q1 2016 […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 151,000 jobs were added in January, down from 262,000 in December. According to the Wall Street Breakfast, “consensus had called for 190,000 jobs to be added, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5 percent. Traders in interest rate […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. December data was released on Monday February 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
According to the AISI A7 report, total crude steel production in 2015 was 86,912,000 tons, down by 10.6 percent from 2014. Figure 1 puts this into a historical context with 130 years of data. Peak production was 150,483,000 in 1973 and in that year 26 percent was produced in open hearth furnaces, 18.4 percent in […]
The following article is normally produced for our Premium level members. However, we wanted to share this report so those who are Executive level members can evaluate the product and if you find it of interest you can contact our office to see about upgrading (or trialing) to our Premium level service. If you have […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q4 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Monday. The annualized growth rate in the first estimate of the fourth quarter was 0.69 percent, down from 1.99 percent, in the 3rd quarter and down from 3.91 percent in Q2. Normally […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close. In the last eight quarters since Q1 2014, the Feds reported total job creation of 5,766,000 and the states reported 5,415,400. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of Federal […]
Consumer confidence improved from 96.3 in December to 98.1 in January. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined from 96.0 in December to 95.7 in January. The 3MMA of the present situation is almost on its five year trend and that of expectations has now fallen below its 5 year trend (Figure 1). The historical […]
Total housing starts in December were at an annual rate of 1,149,000 which was down from 1,179,000 in November. Since April total monthly starts annualized have ranged from 1,062,000 to 1,211,000 with the high month being June. In December the three month moving average (3MMA) was 1,133,000 which was down from 1,153,000 in November. August […]
On December 16th the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate for the first time in almost a decade and as we write the FOMC is meeting once again and will make another announcement tomorrow regarding any change to the rate. None is expected though it is anticipated that four hikes could occur in 2016. […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of the direction of steel demand with a six to nine month […]
In December, vehicle sales in the US eased from the blistering pace of the previous 3 months. Sales fell from 18.2 million in each of the months September, October and November to 17.3 million in December. All numbers quoted here are seasonally adjusted annual rates. For the full year of 2015, sales were 17.3 million […]
The following article is normally produced for our Premium level members, but we wanted to share it with our Executive level members as we think it is important and interesting as the world is flooded with excess steel capacity. If you find this article interesting you may be interested in upgrading your membership from Executive […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium members, but we thought our Executive members would appreciate seeing the MSCI data from a different viewpoint with more analysis than what they normally see from us. Based on Steel Market Update (SMU) analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory and shipment data, total […]
This article is normally reserved for our Premium members but we felt it would be a good one to share with all of our readers. If you are interested in signing up for a Premium membership or would like a trial, let us know at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or call (800) 432 3475. Following up on our […]
Often with steel related economic statistics it’s useful to compare a given data stream with others which may or may not be causally related. This usually puts the steel data into context and shows whether a direction change is for real. In this piece we are comparing the price of Chicago shredded scrap with the […]
Figure 1 shows historical gas and oil prices since January 2000. The daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $31.42 on January 11th, down from $36.31 on December 14th, according to the latest daily figure available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). There have been reports in the press that oil broke […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis at 546,093 tons in November continue to be more than double that […]
SMU has developed a series of reports that cover hot rolled, cold rolled, HDG, other metallic coated, coiled plate and semi-finished slabs. These reports are a detailed drill down into tons by source country and port of entry which will enable you to determine exactly what is going on in your area for whichever product […]
In the first eleven months of 2015 bulk scrap exports were 11,762,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 12,831,000 tonnes, down by 17.5 percent from the first eleven months of 2014. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages (3MMA) for 2015 and on the annual monthly average for previous […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 292,000 jobs were added in December, which was better than economist’s consensus expectations. October was revised up by 9,000 and November up by 41,000. The three month moving (3MMA) of gains through December was 284,000. The unemployment rate, U3, calculated from […]
Licensed data for December was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on January 5th. At SMU we perform a detailed analysis of this data, an explanation of our methodology is given at the end of this write up. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of December […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their December report on January 4th 2016 with a value of 48.6 which is the lowest since June 2009. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. We have made a change to our analysis this month by removing the capacity utilization of both the flat rolled […]