Both auto and light truck sales in the US dropped abruptly in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million units, down from 17.5 million in February, Figure 1. Auto sales fell by 11 percent, while light truck sales rose 3 percent. Year-to-date sales are 3 percent higher than for the first […]
We have include an abridged statement from the IMF that was released on Tuesday this week and in which the commodity situation continues to loom large. Our SMU data analysis follows with comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2021. We believe that an understanding of global influences is essential if […]
The following analysis was done by Peter Wright who writes a number of analytical articles for Steel Market Update. The energy markets are key markets for steel so it is important for our readers to understand oil and gas prices as well as the tubular products associated with drilling and transportation of oil and gas. […]
Licensed data for March was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on April 5th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of March were […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through February 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. February data was released on Friday April 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 34. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q4 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate of the fourth quarter was 1.38 percent, down from 1.97 percent, in the third quarter and down from 3.86 percent in Q2. Normally […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 215,000 jobs were added in March, down from 245,000 in February but up from 168,000 in January. January and February were revised down by a total of 1,000. An explanation of the BLS report is included at the end […]
Consumer Confidence rose from an upwardly revised 94.0 in February to 96.2 in March. Included below is the official news release from the Conference Board. Our SMU analysis is exactly the opposite from the official version. This is not to say who is right and who is not but to point out to our members […]
US vehicle sales in February were the strongest for that month in 15 years with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 17.5 million units, up from 16.4 million in February last year. Figure 1 shows auto and light truck sales since January 2006. Auto sales have been essentially flat for four full years as […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last week reported results through February. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
Based on Steel Market Update (SMU) analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory and shipment data, total service center carbon steel shipments increased by 125,500 tons in February to 3.034 million tons. Shipping days at 21, were up by one from January. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments decreased from 145,400 […]
The following analysis was done by Peter Wright who writes a number of analytical articles for Steel Market Update. The energy markets are key markets for steel so it is important for our readers to understand oil and gas prices as well as the tubular products associated with drilling and transportation of oil and gas. […]
Licensed data for February was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on March 8th. At SMU we perform a detailed analysis of this data, an explanation of our methodology is given at the end of this write up. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of February […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2007 through January 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 242,000 jobs were added in February, up from 172,000 in January, December and January were revised up by a total of 30,000. More detail on this report is included at the end of this piece. The three month moving […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has now got their date base for the GDP of each state up and running and last week published data from Q1 2005 through Q3 2015. Looking ahead the data will be published quarterly and is reported in chained 2009 dollars seasonally adjusted. We at SMU plan to analyze […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. January data was released on Tuesday March 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
The following article is one of the key proprietary products produced for our Premium level members. We wanted to share it with all of our readers this evening to give everyone a feel for how we are seeing the steel economy based on “the numbers.” An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at […]
Consumer confidence fell from 97.8 in January to 92.2 in February following improvements in December and January. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined from 95.6 in January to 95.4 in February and therefore obliterated the single month decline which is the way we prefer to look at data such as this which is quite […]
Currency markets have been anything but stable since our last update on January 25th and this shows up clearly in our examination of the currencies of the steel trading nations. Expectations of four rate hikes by the FOMC seem to have flown out the window. On February 3rd Josh Brown wrote, “Perhaps the biggest headline […]
US vehicle sales in January exceeded expectations and came in at 17.6 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis. This was up by 300,000 from December and by 5.4 percent year over year. Light truck sales contributed 10.1 million units and autos 7.4 million. This month we decided to examine the long term […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of the direction of steel demand with a six to nine month […]
Source World Steel Association with Analysis by SMU. Global steel production in the 12 months of 2015 totaled 1.595 billion tonnes with a capacity of 2.33 billion tonnes. The WSA has made no downward revision to capacity as production fell in the course of 2015 making capacity utilization look increasingly dismal. Production in the month […]
The article below is normally published to our Premium members as a supplement to the Executive write up. The author is Peter Wright who produces a number of articles for both our Premium and Executive level newsletters. Peter is also one of our Steel 101 instructors where he shares both his marketing and metallurgical knowledge […]
Based on Steel Market Update (SMU) analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory and shipment data, total service center carbon steel shipments increased by 264,500 tons in January to 2.909 million tons. Shipping days at 20, were down by two from December. On a tons per day basis (t/d) shipments increased from 120,200 […]
SMU has developed a series of reports that cover hot rolled, cold rolled, HDG, other metallic coated, coiled plate and semi-finished slabs. These reports are a detailed drill down into tons by source country and port of entry. Total imports of HR in 2015 were 3,477,187 metric tons. Table 1 shows the tonnage by port […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in December 2014 but on a month over month basis has declined for nine of the last thirteen months. January was a welcome respite with an increase of 0.92 percent, which is huge, and […]
On Monday there was a meeting between Russia and select OPEC members where they agreed to an oil output freeze at January levels in an effort to tackle a global supply glut. This was a closed door meeting in Doha between Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar and Russia. Evidently there was a caveat that other members […]