This month as we contemplate the August job creation performance we will lead off with the thoughts of J.G. Collins managing director of the Stuyvesant Square Consultancy. On September 2nd he wrote: The August jobs report released this morning was full of disappointment, with just 151,000 jobs created. Higher wage occupations continued to shed jobs […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. At the end of […]
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee met on Friday, an event closely watched by currency traders around the world as they try to anticipate the Fed’s future interest rate activity. AllianceBernstein (AB) had this to say on Saturday. While Yellen’s main focus in Wyoming was on the tools needed to ensure a resilient monetary policy […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May, its lowest value since July last year to 101.1 in August, its highest value since September last year. Included below […]
Light vehicle (LV) sales bounced back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.9 million units in July from 16.7 million in June (Figure 1). July was the best month since November last year. Autos rose from 6.8 to 7.1 million and light trucks rose from 9.9 to 10.8 million. The mix in July […]
We normally reserve our expanded service center data analysis for our Premium members but felt this would be a good piece to share with all of our members. Based on Steel Market Update (SMU) analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory and shipment data, total service center carbon steel shipments declined by 443,300 […]
The SMU monthly import analysis describes the total tonnage by product. It is intended to be a big picture commentary that describes how import volumes are changing and by implication what effect they are having on the macro market. It does not provide any regional information nor does it tell us the country of origin. […]
Steel Market Update is reintroducing our monthly analysis of foreign steel imports into the United States by product, port and country. This report will be available to our Premium level members shortly after the U.S. government releases the Final Census data for each month. The data was just released for the month of June. Since […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through June 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
At SMU we almost always use three month moving averages to mitigate situations like the dismal and not credible May job creation statistics. In the July report May was revised up slightly from 11,000 to 24,000 and June was revised up from 287,000 to 292,000. This week’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported […]
June data for Construction Put in Place (CPIP) was released by the Department of Commerce on Monday August 1st. In June total construction slowed for the third consecutive month on a 3MMA (three month moving average) basis. All four sectors had negative momentum. These are non-residential buildings, residential buildings, infra-structure and other, which is a […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. It is important to understand the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. The total […]
In the Bureau of Economic Analysis report of GDP released on Friday, economic statistics were revised back to Q1 2013. In these revisions, Q2 and Q4 of 2015 were revised down as was Q1 of 2016. Q1 of 2015 was revised up substantially and Q3 of 2015 was unchanged. The annualized GDP growth rate in […]
Sources for the following article are the Conference Board and SMU analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May to 97.3 in June then eked out a small gain to 97.4 in July. Included below is the official news release from the […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the second quarter of 2016. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.7 percent in the second quarter, which was unchanged from the first quarter, down from […]
Light vehicle (LV) sales in June were 16.7 million units, down from 17.4 million in May and from 17.0 million in June last year. All sales numbers in this analysis are at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Figure 1 shows the auto and light truck components since January 2004. In June auto sales were 6.8 […]
Production in the month of June at 135,720,000 metric tons was down by 2.7 percent from May and the three month moving average (3MMA) that we prefer as a measure was down by 0.2 percent year over year. Month over month the 3MMA was down by 0.6 percent. Capacity is 2.3 billion tonnes per year […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears, the latest value we have was dated July 15th (Figure 1). Our previous report was current as of June 26th which shortly followed the FOMC meeting of June 14th and 15th at which it was decided not to raise rates. This […]
Based on Steel Market Update (SMU) analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory and shipment data, total service center carbon steel shipments increased by 169,300 tons in June to 3.220 million tons. The number of shipping days increased by one to 22. On a t/d basis shipments increased from 145,200 in May to […]
The price of oil and natural gas have much to do with sales of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube, storage facilities as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 106.70 in November 2014 and has trended down ever since. The good news is that the three month moving average (3MMA) had positive growth month/month in June for the first time since September last year. […]
The statement of Erica L. Groshe Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Friday morning reads as though the increase in net non-farm employment of 287,000 in June was a fact as was the downwardly revised May number of 11,000. We at SMU don’t believe the May result has any credibility which is particularly […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through May 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
Licensed data for June was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on July 5th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of June were 2,169,434 […]
Licensed data for July was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on August 2nd. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of July were […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. May data was released on Friday July 1st and included revisions back to January 2014. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given […]
This Key Markets Indicator report is something we produce for our Premium level clients. However, we thought that our Executive level readers would appreciate knowing… An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears, the latest value we have was dated June 24th, the day that the result of the UK’s referendum became known. There was no significant move in the value of the dollar on that day which may have been published before the […]
The annualized GDP growth rate in the third estimate of the first quarter of 2016 was 1.08 percent, up from 0.83 percent in the second estimate and from 0.53 percent in the first estimate. The first quarter result was down from 1.38 percent in Q4 last year. Normally there are two revisions of the first […]
Sources for the following article are the Conference Board and SMU analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May, the lowest value in 19 months, to 98.0 in June which was the highest value in 8 months. Included below is the official […]