Licensed data for October was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on November 8th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. Total rolled […]
Often with steel related economic statistics it’s useful to compare a given data stream with others which may or may not be causally related. This usually puts the steel data into context and shows whether a direction change is for real. In this piece we are comparing the price of Chicago shredded scrap with the […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. OPEC is in disarray. […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional foreign steel import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and, thus, provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. […]
The annualized GDP growth rate in the first estimate of the third quarter of 2016 was 2.91 percent which was the best result since the Q3 of 2014. Economy.com had this to say: “Prospects remain bright. Consumers are doing their part and spending growth will remain strong as labor markets tighten and wage increases accelerate. […]
In October net job creation was 161,000. August was revised up by 9,000 and September revised up by 35,000. Using a three month moving average (3MMA), the result for October was 176,000 down from 233,000 in August and from 206,000 in September. Figure 1 shows the 3MMA of the number of jobs created as the […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. September data for CPIP was released on Tuesday November 1st. On a rolling 3 months basis year over year total construction has declined every month since March when growth was 12.4 […]
The Premium article below was originally produced for our Premium members on Wednesday afternoon. Over the last couple of days SMU has had conversations with a number of our members regarding our views on the construction markets. This is an analysis which was shared with our Premium level members yesterday and we have decided to […]
September was another month in which shipments by service centers failed to live up to long term expectations. Carbon steel shipments decreased by 317,800 tons, mostly as a result of the number of shipping days declining from 23 in August to 21 in September. However tons per day shipments also declined being down from 139.7 […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value we have was dated October 7th, Figure 1. The dollar has lacked direction since early May as traders have correctly anticipated […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. On October 14th Economy.com […]
On Friday this week the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its series of producer price indexes, for more than 10,000 goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release this week reported results through September. We run this analysis every three or four months to […]
We believe that misinformation about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are now publishing monthly […]
In September net job creation was 156,000 July was revised down by 23,000 and August revised up by 16,000. Using a 3MMA, the result for September was 192,000 down from 230,000 in August. Figure 1 shows the 3MMA of the number of jobs created as the brown bars since 1990. These numbers are seasonally adjusted […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through August 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
Licensed data for September was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on October 4th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. Total rolled […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. August data for CPIP was released on Monday October 3rd. Overall this was a disappointing report with the growth of total construction having declined for five consecutive months and continuing to […]
We include here an unabridged statement from the IMF that was released on Tuesday this week which forecasts economic growth for all regions and nations through 2021. The IMF reduced its forecast for economic growth in the US in 2016 from 2.4 percent in the April forecast to 1.68 percent and in 2017 from 2.5 […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. At the end of […]
The Fed once again elected not raise rates in their September 21st announcement. On the 22nd Ian Bezek had this to say: “For those who wanted decisive action, the Fed’s latest move failed to please, however, there were three dissenters against the decision – a large number for the Fed – and the vast majority […]
The annualized GDP growth rate in the third estimate of the second quarter of 2016 was 1.41 percent which was slightly above the consensus expectation of 1.3 percent and an improvement from the first estimate which was 1.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and in the third estimate of Q2 […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May, its lowest value since July last year, to 101.1 in August, then to 104.1 in September, it’s highest value since […]
Production in the month of August at 134,125,000 metric tons was up by 0.2 percent from July and the three month moving average (3MMA), that we prefer as a measure, was down by 0.13 from July. Capacity is 2.35 billion tonnes per year and the 3MMA of capacity utilization in August was 68.8 percent. Figure […]
Vehicles sales in the US are settling in to a more sustainable pace, but a strengthening labor market, low interest rates, low gasoline prices, and rising incentives are still supportive of strong demand. Moody’s Analytics expects the pace of light vehicle sales to be above a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17 million units […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 106.70 in November 2014 and trended down until June this year when it experienced a two month turnaround followed by a slight decline in August to 104.402. The three month moving average (3MMA) had positive […]
The price of oil and natural gas have much to do with sales of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube, storage facilities as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through July 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region last year and back dated it to Q1 2005. On Tuesday this week the data was updated through Q1 2016. Even though we might consider this to be historically ‘old’ we think it’s worth reporting because it is […]
Steel Market Update is reintroducing our monthly analysis of foreign steel imports into the United States by product, port and country. This report will be available to our Premium level members shortly after the U.S. government releases the Final Census data for each month. The data was just released for the month of July, you […]
Licensed data for August was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on September 6th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of August were […]