The final license data for June was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis system of the U.S. Commerce Department on July 5. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in […]
An explanation of the Key Market Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation, which is subjective, and our analysis of trends, which is based on the latest facts available. In the June […]
Global steel production in May was 143,325,000 metric tons, up from 142,060,000 tons in April. Capacity utilization was 71.8 percent in May. The three-month moving averages (3MMA) that we prefer to use were 142,957,000 and 72.4 percent, respectively. Capacity is 2.35 billion metric tons per year. Figure 1 shows monthly production and capacity utilization since […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The analysis of currency trends is a highly technical undertaking; therefore we at SMU rely on the opinions of experts for much of our commentary. As expected, the Fed raised its policy rate range by 25 basis points on June 14. This […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator and for the official news release. The composite value of consumer confidence was 118.9 in June, an increase of 1.3 points from the May value. The last […]
We are continuing our investigation to quantify the players in the global trade of both HRC and CRC. We now have data for the first quarter of this year. This information is sourced quarterly from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. It takes about 10 weeks after the close of a quarter […]
Daily shipments by service centers in May decreased by 1.4 percent from April’s result. On average since 2009, May has increased by 1.3 percent, therefore these latest numbers were a little worse than normal for this time of year. Carbon steel shipments were 148,500 tons per day in May and months on hand on the […]
Vehicle sales in the U.S. averaged 17.1 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) per month in the first five months of 2017, down from 18.1 million in Q4 2016. March, April and May sales were each below 17.0 million units SAAR for the first time since June last year. In May, light […]
We are continuing our investigation to quantify the players in the global trade of both HRC and CRC. We now have data through Q1 2017. This information is sourced quarterly from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. Data is not very current because many countries are slow in reporting, but we feel […]
This is only the third time we have produced a report on global scrap trade. In the future, we will report quarterly because to understand the gyrations of the domestic scrap market we should be aware of where the U.S. stands as a global player. This data is not very current as some nations are […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make welded tubular goods, as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. On June 12, George […]
We start this report with comments made by Jun Wei Yeo on iron ore and coking coal. “In April to May alone, there was an over 30 percent drop in the price of iron ore. Iron ore mining companies such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and Brazil’s Vale are suffering simultaneous stock price declines. Most […]
We believe that misinformation (or a lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We […]
The final license data for May was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis system of the U.S. Commerce Department on June 6. An explanation of the methodology that SMU uses to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through April 2017 and year-on-year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments with total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side-by-side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and […]
April data for Construction Put in Place (CPIP) was released by the Department of Commerce on Thursday June 1st 2017. Total construction still has positive growth but slowed to 2.5 percent year/year in the latest three months of data. Privately funded projects are the growth engine as state and local and infrastructure both had negative […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for May was released on Friday and revealed a disappointing total net job creation of 138,000 which was well below analysts expectations. To make matters worse, March and April were revised down by a total of 66,000 jobs. Using a three month moving average (3MMA), the result […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. We now have three […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator and for the official news release. Consumer Confidence decreased 1.5 points in May, falling to 117.9 but the last four months have each been better than at […]
This report summarized seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the US. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect these data sources to all point in the same direction but our intention in summarizing them […]
Production in the month of April was 142,080,000 metric tons, down from up from 143,469,000 tons in March. Capacity utilization at 73.6 percent was up from 71.9. The three month moving averages (3MMA) that we prefer to use were 137,479,000 and 72.0 percent respectively. Capacity is 2.35 billion tonnes per year. Figure 1 shows monthly […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. On May 22 Arun Chopra of Fusion Point Capital wrote: “The dollar has been on a 2 year plus uptrend. When the dollar broke out we saw oil and all commodities collapse. An important long term trend line has broken, having implications […]
When we saw that shipments had dropped by over 500,000 tons in April our first thought was “Yikes!” but as we looked deeper we saw that shipping days in March were 23 days (their highest in the cycle) and in April fell to 19 days. Daily shipments in April increased by 6.6 percent from March. […]
Vehicle sales improved slightly from the previous month, but they were slower compared with the first quarter average and year-ago numbers. According to J.D. Power, incentive spending in April averaged about $3,500 per new vehicle—or approximately 10 percent of the average transaction price—which surpasses the previous peak for the month of April in 2009. Furthermore, inventories […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make welded tubular goods as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. Figure 1 shows historical […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through March 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments with total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are […]
The latest license data was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis system of the US Commerce Department on May 2nd and closed out the April data. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this […]
The US Gross Domestic Product is the values of goods and services produced by all economic activity. The growth of GDP is a function of the growth in the number of employed people multiplied by the growth of their productivity. Steel consumption is correlated to GDP, therefore to understand the direction of the steel market […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated April 14th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.963 on January 3rd which was the […]