In the last 12 months, manufacturing employment has grown by 2.1 percent and construction employment by 4.1 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data—both positive indicators of future steel sales. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees work […]
Net job creation in May hit 223,000 seasonally adjusted. Year over year, 2,363,000 jobs have been created, an increase of 1.6 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data. Rising employment and wages are the basis of GDP growth because personal consumption accounts for almost 70 percent of GDP. Steel consumption is related to […]
In May, consumer confidence improved to the highest level since December 2000, according to the latest findings from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in May was 128.0, up from 125.6 in April. While consumer confidence increased in May from April’s downwardly revised result, the three-month moving average (3MMA) […]
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. remains robust and economic indicators continue to point to a strong 2018, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and […]
The prices of coking coal and zinc declined in May, while iron ore FOB Australia’s East Coast and scrap priced in Chicago were unchanged. To put this raw materials commentary into perspective, Figure 1 shows the spread between Chicago #1 busheling and hot rolled coil ex works Indiana through May 18, both in dollars per […]
U.S. gross domestic product grew in every region of the country in last year’s second and fourth quarters, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week, the data was updated through Q4 2017. […]
Global steel production was at an all-time high in March and declined only slightly in April. Production declined by 0.07 percent in April month over month and grew by 4.0 percent in three months through April year over year, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. China grew by […]
Last month, Steel Market Update reported that the dollar had been trading in a narrow range for eight weeks and on April 13 had the same value as on Feb. 14. In the four weeks leading up to May 18, the situation completely changed as the dollar strengthened by 4.1 percent. (See the end of […]
With the price of oil now above $70 per barrel, the prospects appear positive for oil country tubular goods. But economic and political tensions on a global scale will keep energy prices uncertain. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) broke through $70 on May 7 for the first time since Nov. 27, 2014. […]
March was a strong month for both steel mill shipments and demand for rolled steel products, but this was partly a seasonal effect. This conclusion is based on Steel Market Update’s analysis of data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce. March was a good month for both […]
Carbon steel prices have escalated at a lower rate than aluminum, but higher than plastic and wood. Truck transportation prices are rising faster than rail, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last week, the BLS released its series of producer price indexes (PPIs) for more than 10,000 goods and materials […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of import market share for sheet, plate, long and tubular products and their 18 subcategories shows big disparities by product type. Table 1 shows total supply to the market in three months through March and in 12 months through March for the four product groups and the 18 subcategories. Supply to […]
For steel producers, there’s a strong correlation between capacity utilization and profits. Steel Market Update tracks capacity utilization for both flat and long products and both have been on the upswing since early 2018, at least in part due to the effects of the Trump administration’s plans to impose tariffs on steel imports. From January […]
This analysis breaks down the imported tonnage of six flat rolled products by district of entry and source country. Our intent is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for Steel Market Update subscribers. Premium members will find reports here on our website […]
Total rolled steel product imports in April were the highest since last June and semi-finished imports were the highest since October 2014 as offshore mills hurried to ship steel ahead of the tariffs that were expected to take effect May 1. Total rolled steel product imports in April were up by 17.0 percent from March’s […]
Employment increases in manufacturing and construction are signposts for steel sales activity. 2018 is starting off well. Rising employment and wages are the basis of GDP growth because personal consumption accounts for almost 70 percent of GDP. Steel consumption is related to GDP; therefore, we need to be aware of changes to the employment picture. […]
Steel mill shipments are increasing, and the shipment-to-inventory ratio is decreasing, which is positive for the industry. According to American Iron and Steel Institute data, total steel mill shipments increased by 13.1 percent from January 2016 through January 2018 and by 2.4 percent in January 2018 year over year. Is this believable? This is the […]
Total construction spending has expanded for seven straight months, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Department of Commerce data. The growth of total construction on a rolling 12-month basis year over year increased from 2.1 percent in January to 2.2 percent in February to 2.3 percent in March this year. On a rolling […]
Key market indicators tracked by Steel Market Update are at an all-time high for April but have shown signs of weakening in the past few months. Data released in April shows that 18 of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 5 negative. The balance is within the historically normal band. Trends took a […]
This is Steel Market Update’s first Key Market Indicators report since April as we have renegotiated some data supply contracts and made a few changes to the content. The report still summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance to steel buyers. Data released […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level readers. For more information about upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Key market indicators in December were at an all-time high in the history of Steel Market Update’s analysis, but trends are deteriorating. This report summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe […]
Indicators of manufacturing activity point to a strong first half for the U.S. economy and the steel industry. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief in […]
GDP growth slowed in the first quarter, but on a trailing 12-month basis has improved for the last seven quarters, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of government data. The first estimate of GDP in the first quarter was 2.32 percent, down from 2.87 percent in Q4 2017. Economy.com reported: “U.S. GDP growth moderated […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in March and recovered partially in April, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) has advanced for nine of the last 10 months, according to data from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in April was 128.7, up from 127.0 in March. The 3MMA increased from […]
Global steel demand will reach 1,616.1 million tons in 2018, an increase of 1.8 percent over 2017, estimates the World Steel Association in its spring Short Range Outlook. In 2019, WSA forecasts global demand will grow by 0.7 percent to 1,626.7 million tons. “In the next couple of years, the global economic situation is expected […]
Metals Service Center Institute data shows that service center shipments in March were slightly less than the seasonal norm. Daily shipments in March were down by 0.8 percent from the February result. On average since 2009, March shipments have increased by 0.3 percent; therefore, these latest numbers were seasonally slightly worse than the historical average […]
The International Monetary Fund has made an upward revision to its forecast for global GDP growth in 2018 and 2019. The IMF updates its World Economic Outlook (WEO) in April and October each year. The IMF blog last Tuesday stated: “The world economy continues to show broad-based momentum. Against that positive backdrop, the prospect of […]
The prices of scrap and iron ore advanced in April, but coking coal and zinc declined. To put the raw materials analysis into perspective, Figure 1 shows the spread between Chicago #1 busheling and hot rolled coil ex works Indiana through April 13, both in dollars per net ton. The spread at $538.50 is now […]
Oil prices are firm, and the drill rig count continues to increase, which is positive news for suppliers to the energy sector. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has remained above $60 per barrel since Feb. 14 and on April 10 closed at $65.48 per barrel. The total number of operating rigs exploring […]
Once each quarter, Steel Market Update publishes the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party figures, but we include them in our reports because of the importance of China in the global steel scene, and these numbers are all that’s available. […]