By CRU Senior Analyst Richard Lu, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor In September 2020, President Xi Jinping formally announced that China will aim to achieve a peak in carbon emissions before 2030, followed by carbon neutrality before 2060. As part of the decarbonization efforts, the Chinese government at the start of the year announced […]
By CRU Principal Aluminum Analyst Guillaume Osouf The LME aluminum price has been going through a period of consolidation since it reached its last significant peak at $2,603 /t on May 10. A similar situation was observed between December 2020 and February 2021 before the rally resumed even stronger. Can we expect the same to […]
By CRU Research Manager Charlie Durant and Peter Ghilchik, CRU Head of Multi-Commodity Analysis 2021 is shaping up to be a year of economic recovery. CRU is forecasting the fastest annual growth in the world economy for 40 years, underpinned by successful vaccination programs and supportive fiscal and monetary policy. 3+1 Macro Themes In January, we […]
By CRU’s Economics Team The Biden administration has recently announced a $2.2 trillion American Jobs Plan (AJP) spending package, which includes around $1 trillion of spending on infrastructure. In this slidepack, we set out what this could mean for metals demand and the wider U.S. economy. Our analysis suggests that the AJP could boost demand […]
By CRU Analysts Kevin Bai and Zhenzhen Jiang, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Policy aimed at reducing pollution in Tangshan, Hebei province, has started to restrict hot metal supply and lift steel prices in China. This Insight summarizes the policy, assesses the immediate impact of the measures and explores potential implications on China’s crude […]
By CRU Analyst Atul Kulkarni, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a 38-year high during March as the Biden government’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package improved sentiment. U.S. vehicle production and durable goods new orders stayed strong during February. Although U.S. crude steel capacity utilization increased during March, sheet supply […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matt Watkins from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service International prices have rebounded in March from a dip that happened in February (see chart 1). Larger m/m gains have occurred in flats than in longs, which have been more impacted by a pullback in scrap costs, but almost all prices are up […]
By CRU Analyst Kevin Bai from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor China has announced that it will remove the value-added tax (VAT) rebate it has historically applied to steel exports, alongside changes in import and export tariffs. This will increase the cost of exporting and discourage export volumes, which will help loosen a tight domestic […]
By CRU Research Analyst Yusu Mao, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Last week, Turkish scrap import prices fell for the first time since September 2020. CRU recorded two deals and assessed HMS 1/2 80:20 at $446 /t CFR (- $34 /t w/w, -$27 /t m/m). The enlarged spread between HMS 1/2 80:20 and shredded […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis An administrative change in Washington, D.C., arrives this week. Some of the parties with vested interests in Section 232 are already messaging the Biden administration. On Jan. 13, the American Primary Aluminum Association (APAA), which consists of Century Aluminum and Magnitude Seven Aluminum, sent a letter to President-elect Biden […]
2021 will be a year of hope for recovery after the coronavirus pandemic left its mark on the world in 2020. Monitoring the speed and nature of the recovery will be vital to understanding all markets. Drawing on conversations between market experts and people across commodity value chains, CRU expects interest in three topics to […]
From the CRU weekly Steel Monitor: Most Chinese product prices were either unchanged or marginally lower this week, except for HR coil, that has fallen RMB220 /t ($32 /t) over three weeks. Although this keeps Chinese prices at a relatively high level, it has created caution and may now indicate a limit to how far rallies in […]
By CRU Analyst Kevin Bai, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Domestic sheet prices in China continued to reach new highs for the year alongside further improvement in underlying sheet demand in combination with limited supply. Domestic CR coil prices went up by RMB290 /t to RMB4720 /t and HDG sheet by RMB140 /t to […]
By CRU Economists Jumana Saleheen and Economist Yingrui Wang, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor Special Feature: China will set out its major economic objectives and policy goals for 2020 at the National People’s Congress. We expect fiscal stimulus of 5-8 percent of nominal GDP to be announced, half the size of the stimulus that followed […]
By CRU Analyst Nikki Ni, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Over the past month, Chinese steel demand has accelerated, resulting in lower inventories while output remained at a high level. The ongoing demand recovery has improved the Steel PMI to 45.9 in April, up by 3.7pp m/m. Despite being below the 50-mark, the consecutive m/m improvement […]
By CRU Senior Consultants Amir Sabet and Josefa Carrere, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The Covid-19 pandemic has generated significant uncertainty in the commodities market. For the steel sector, this has resulted in a fall in demand and steelmakers have responded by taking a wide range of capacity-related actions. In this Insight we show […]
By CRU Principal Consultant Laura Brooks and Senior Consultant Amir Sabet, from CRU’s Crude Steel Market Outlook The market impacts of Covid-19 are unknown in scale, varied and staggered in time across the world. The steel raw materials markets are being affected to a lesser or greater extent depending on the demand-side and supply-side regional […]
The global Covid-19 outbreak has resulted in sharply falling steel demand all over the world. For the steel industry, it is a challenging task to reduce production levels as ~70 percent of global output is produced through the BF/BOF, or integrated steelmaking, process route. Blast furnaces (BFs) suffer from low operational flexibility—they cannot typically be […]
In the past week, iron ore saw its biggest drop of the year as prices fell by nearly $10 /t. The main reason for the fall was an escalation of Covid-19 cases outside of China, which caused concerns of iron ore demand in key steelmaking regions such as Europe and northeast Asia. At the same […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Matt Watkins, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Covid-19 is now the major driver of developments in the global steel industry, as indeed it is in the wider economy. Over the past month the virus has spread rapidly outside China and its growth remains uncontrolled. Europe has become a new epicenter […]
By Senior Coal Analyst Ben Carstein, from CRU’s Metallurgical Coal Market Outlook Despite weakening fundamentals in the Chinese steel market, the seaborne metallurgical coal market, and hence prices, remain supported. Chinese HRC and rebar prices are up about RMB90 /t over the week. However, we believe this largely reflects trader purchases that have not been […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary, from CRU’s Zinc Monitor Disruption caused by the Covid-19 outbreak has cut Chinese demand and visible stocks have risen sharply, placing downward pressure on prices. In Hubei, where restrictions on the movement of goods and people was due to be lifted tomorrow, the local government has just announced today […]
China has begun a mass return to work following the Chinese New Year holiday that was extended due to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (recently given the official name Covid-19). Labor and logistical constraints have hit the steel industry across the whole value chain from the supply of raw materials through to steel demand […]
By CRU Analysts, from CRU’s Bulk Ferroalloys Monitor U.S. finished steel prices have risen following price increase announcements that found support from service center restocking. Adding to this price support was the scrap market, where scarcer supply and increased mill demand put prices on an upward trajectory. Some steel products have enjoyed quicker price gains […]
The three themes which will run through CRU analysis this year: China’s economic re-balancing, FX currency movements, and Environmental and Social Governance. 2020 brings opportunities and challenges for commodity markets. CRU has drawn on conversations between our market experts and people from all parts of commodity market value chains—from miner to end-use consumer—and we have […]
By Peter Ghilchik, Head of CRU Multi Commodity Analysis and Production, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service CRU expects a return to commodity demand growth in 2020, albeit a weak recovery, as industrial production growth recovers to 2.2 percent; however, risk is heavily weighted to the downside. Economic uncertainty, weak demand and an increasing focus on […]