By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain It is imperative for carbon steel producers to have secure supply of metallurgical coke to ensure stable and efficient operation of their blast furnaces (BF). Steelmakers also benefit from using coke with consistent technical specifications, namely CSR and ash content in their BFs. For these reasons alone it is prudent […]
By John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update The Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has been a mirror of the comments made by buyers of flat rolled and plate steel over the past few days. Our Sentiment Index, which measures how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to […]
By CRU Prices Analyst Estelle Tran U.S. steel sheet prices have fallen faster in early Q4 than initially expected, as lower demand levels, economic uncertainty and another $30-40 /l.ton decrease in scrap prices in October guided steel prices down. The CRU Midwest HR coil price assessment on Oct. 16 was $507 /s.ton, down $64 from […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Near date HR futures month prices have been a bit choppy so far this month as the HR index has dropped […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill Weak steel markets have continued to drive down scrap prices in many regions. In the key supply markets of Europe and the U.S., mills have taken outages as demand has failed to recover seasonally. Meanwhile in Japan, weak steel demand and high steel inventories have continued to limit steel […]
Flat rolled prices took a steep dive lower this week as benchmark hot rolled dropped below $500 per ton for the first time since early November 2016. The spreads between hot rolled and cold rolled/coated products continue to be close to $200 per ton and even higher for Galvalume. We are collecting a small number […]
Mill capacity utilization by U.S. mills has leveled off in the high 70 percent range. Raw steel production for the week ending Oct. 12 totaled 1,821,000 net tons at a mill utilization rate of 78.7 percent, up 0.9 percent from the previous week but down 3.0 percent compared with the same week last year, reported the […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch Last week, Turkish scrap import prices increased by $8 /t to $233 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, based on one 40 kt deal from the U.S. Following a number of weeks of sizable deal volumes, the market quietened. This increase comes despite sharp falls in the U.S. domestic market again for October buys. The […]
August apparent steel supply rose to 9,625,558 net tons, the highest level seen since April of this year, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total […]
February was the first month for the import market share of total steel products, including semifinished, to fall below 20 percent since August 2009. The import share remained below 20 percent through August 2019 when it was 18.4 percent. Our data goes back to January 2003 in which time period the high import share was […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores The North American sheet market has taken a turn for the worse. At a time when sheet demand and prices have already been stunted by a weaker trend of industrial growth and sheet demand, two recent events are only now starting to affect sheet prices: an on-going strike at […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
Preliminary data for the full month of September, based on Commerce Department import licenses, shows that steel imports likely totaled less than 2 million tons last month. This is comparable to the final Census data for August, putting imports for the past two months at well below average. One notable difference in September–estimated finished steel […]
The U.S. exported 650,838 tons of flat rolled steel in August, according to final Census data, a 5 percent rise from July, and up 1 percent from the same month one year ago. This is the highest monthly export figure since July 2018 when 655,937 tons of steel were exported outside of the country. August […]
In September, the licensed import volume of rolled steel products was the lowest since February 2011, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data. Total rolled product imports in September declined by 15.5 percent year over year on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This follows the […]
Prices for all steel products saw further declines this week as price momentum continues to point firmly downward. The benchmark hot rolled price set a new low for the year, below the $520 per ton level reached in June. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $480-$550 […]
Lack of demand for ferrous scrap, especially in the Ohio Valley and Chicago market, forced prices down another $30-40/GT for October, on top of a similar decline in September, sources tell Steel Market Update. Scrap prices are their lowest in years, dropping eight out of the last 10 months. Shred prices today are around $215/GT, […]
Raw steel production by U.S. mills has been stuck in the high 70 percent range for the past seven weeks. The last time the utilization rate was above the desired mark of 80 percent was the week ending Aug. 24. Production for the most recent week ending Oct. 5 totaled 1,804,000 net tons at a […]
By CRU Steel Prices Lead Anh Nghiem China returned to the market on Tuesday from their national holidays, but the market remained stable with mixed signals from the China Futures market, i.e. a 1 percent increase in the iron ore futures market while the steel futures market showed a 2 percent decline on the first […]
U.S. raw steel production in August fell 0.3 percent to 8,152,796 net tons, reports the American Iron and Steel Institute in Washington. August production is in line with the 2019 average of 8,147,242 tons and down 1.1 percent compared to the same month last year. Broken down by production method, 5,752,849 tons (70.6 percent) were […]
By CRU Principal Analyst James Campbell The decline of long product prices accelerated this month as demand in many regions around the world failed to ignite after the seasonally slow July-August period. Prices have now unwound to the level before the 2017-18 boom. Sluggish demand and falling scrap prices have turned sentiment bearish and buying […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
More than 80 percent of the steel buyers polled by Steel Market Update in the last 10 days believe steel prices will test the lows reached earlier this year. SMU’s current average hot rolled price is $525 a ton, just $5 above the $520 low hit in late June. Pointing to sketchy demand, some believe […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores Sheet prices in North America have taken another step down this week losing $15-17 /s.ton w/w. Industrial demand remains limited as evidenced by the most recent ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index, which showed another contraction. Adding to this structurally weak demand environment is the ongoing strike at General Motors. This […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch After several weeks of steady Turkish scrap, import prices were stable last week at $225 /t CFR for HMS 80:20. We have assessed seven deals totaling about 274 kt, indicating a second week of strong scrap purchasing activity. Turkish scrap import prices have now reached a level that allows Turkish steel mills to export […]
Questions about demand, tariffs, trade wars and the overall health of the economy continue to put downward pressure on steel prices. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $500-$550 per ton ($25.00-$27.50/cwt) with an average of $525 per ton ($26.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The […]
With three quarters of 2019 nearly complete, U.S. steel mills have managed to keep capacity utilization above the industry’s target of 80 percent, producing 3.4 percent more steel than they did in the first three quarters of 2018, reported the American Iron and Steel Institute. Through the week ending Sept. 28, domestic steelmakers produced 72,593,000 net […]
Raw materials prices were erratic in September with four of the five considered here experiencing price reversals since August. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through Sept. 25 of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month / month, 3 months / 3 months and 12 months / 12 months changes on […]
Editor’s note: The Chinese government currently bars exports of ferrous scrap to other parts of the world to assure China of an adequate domestic supply. As this analysis by CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill points out, China’s economy will eventually generate a scrap supply that far exceeds its scrap consumption, opening up the doors to […]