Over the last two weeks, we have seen worsening market sentiment, as evidenced by movement in the futures curve, which sold down as much as $45 per ton in July and $28 per ton in August and September, respectively. This overall flattening of the curve is most clearly seen in the chart below, with the […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports remain at a discount to domestic hot band tags as both offshore and US product continue to decline at a similar rate, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. Even as domestic tags have been on a seven-week decline, HRC imports have fallen at a comparable rate, keeping US hot […]
US plate prices have changed little over the past several weeks, and Nucor’s latest price notice – a sideways move – might mean demand is not as robust as recently as mid-April, according to market participants contacted by SMU. The most recent mill increase came from Nucor on April 19, when the steelmaker aimed to increase […]
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and galvanized coil base prices has been trending downward since mid-April when steel prices also began their descent. Figure 1 shows both SMU’s hot rolled and galvanized prices. SMU’s HRC price averaged $990 per ton as of Tuesday, May 30, unchanged from the previous week and down 14.7% from […]
Sheet prices were flat or down only modestly this week, the first period of relative stability since mid-April. But several market participants said the flattish trend reflected limited activity around Memorial Day rather than stability in the broader market. Mills remain willing to negotiate spot prices and to match lower prices from their competitors, some […]
Raw steel production by US mills edged up again last week, moving higher for the third straight week, according to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) on Tuesday, May 30. Domestic production stood at 1,737,000 net tons in the week ended May 27 vs. 1,728,000 tons the previous week, and the highest […]
An anticipated surge in flat-rolled steel imports due to higher domestic pricing has yet to be reflected in government data. For monthly imports, the International Trade Administration’s US Steel Import Monitor tracks license applications (a first look showing licenses to import but not necessarily the actual tonnages that entered during the month), a preliminary count, […]
June is expected to be a weaker month for scrap prices, but there is still a lot of uncertainty, especially with the Turkish elections set for Sunday, according to scrap market sources. “The mood is generally bearish, but I think the bears are a little too far out over their skis with the prognostications for […]
CME Midwest HRC futures continue to be under pressure. Every month from June through March has declined since the start of May. The July and August futures were hardest hit, dropping $50 and $53, respectively, through today’s close. These two months outpacing the others lower has flattened the curve. Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein […]
SMU’s domestic hot-rolled coil price has fallen below $1,000 per ton ($50 per cwt) for the first time since early March as a broad-based sheet price decline picks up speed. Our HRC price now stands at $990 per ton on average, down $50 per ton from $1,040 per ton last week and off $170 per […]
Raw steel production by US mills edged up slightly last week, expanding for the second straight week, according to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) on Monday, May 22. Domestic production stood at 1,728,000 net tons in the week ended May 20 vs. 1,725,000 tons the previous week. Output was off 2.4% from […]
Foreign cold-rolled coil remains much less expensive than domestic CRC even as prices in the US fall roughly in tandem with those abroad, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. Domestic CRC was, on average, $77 per ton ($3.85 per cwt) more expensive than imported steel in the four regions we track as recently as early February. […]
The price spread between hot-rolled sheet and steel plate rose for the sixth consecutive week as hot-rolled prices continued their descent and plate prices remained relatively stable, according to SMU’s price indices published last Tuesday. SMU’s hot-rolled coil index averaged $1,040 per net ton ($52.00 per cwt) in the latest market check on May 16. […]
In the race to lower emissions, both steel companies and countries are promoting greater use of domestic scrap, but this approach has two key weaknesses. Firstly, using more steel scrap in one country will have no impact on global carbon emissions – it will simply see scrap use move from one country to another. Secondly, […]
A weary market worn down by the absence of any positive demand reports ran below the critical $2,300-per-tonne trading line. Falling all the way to $2,200 before settling in the $2,270 – 2,290 range, the LME is in a new lower range as of the week ending May 19 as bearish sentiment pervades the market. […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports are lingering at a notable price discount to domestic hot band tags despite repeated price decreases in the US market, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. Domestic tags are still markedly more expensive than imported product, as both offshore and US steel prices continue to ease. The price advantage domestic […]
Scrap price falls have continued, now affecting all major markets. Previously, the market weakness was due to macroeconomic concerns but is now due to weak steel demand. Turkish scrap buying has been underwhelming, while Chinese scrap consumption has been reeling back as the steel outlook turns sour. Poor Steel Demand and Production Weigh on Scrap […]
Prices for steel sheet continue to move lower as market participants debate how far and how fast prices might fall before they reach bottom. Some are also questioning when and how quickly prices might rebound. But most don’t see that happening until the back half of the year. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price has in the […]
By CRU senior analyst, Ryan McKinley Supply has become increasingly available to sheet markets around the world. In many cases, this in coinciding with weak demand, creating a supply glut over the near term and increasing competition among exporters in major sheet-producing regions. The key for markets to retighten lies with China, with exporters there […]
Raw steel production by US mills recovered last week, up 0.8% from the week prior and moving to its highest output since late August 2022, according to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) on Monday, May 15. Domestic production stood at 1,725,000 net tons in the week ended May 13 vs. 1,712,000 […]
US apparent steel supply rose 6% in March to 8.03 million net tons compared to the previous month, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Apparent steel supply is determined by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then deducting total US […]
US non-farm payrolls data showed stronger than expected job growth in April and a further drop in the unemployment rate. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 253,000 jobs were created in April against an expectation of 180,000, while the unemployment rate fell slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%. US non-farm payrolls data showed […]
Private equity firm Apollo has been looking to add Arconic to its portfolio for some time. Almost since its spin-off from its upstream parent, Alcoa, in 2016, Arconic’s assets and key position in the aluminum semis value chain have been on Apollo’s radar. The deal is expected to close before the end of 2023, at […]
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap prices narrowed in May from April after having widened since the beginning of the year, according to Steel Market Update data. Both SMU’s hot-rolled coil price average and busheling prices dropped this week. Our hot-rolled coil average slipped $15 per ton week over week to $1,105 per ton ($55.25/cwt) […]
After surprising the market watchers of HR futures in the first week of May, the index finally gave back $40 per short ton (ST) in the second week, coming in just shy of $1,130/ST. Interestingly, the May futures settlement was almost unchanged from April 10 . While the market may be in a hurry for price […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports remain a feasible alternative despite repeated price decreases in the US market, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis. Domestic tags are still notably more expensive than imported product, as offshore steel prices and US prices decline in tandem. The price advantage domestic HRC had enjoyed over imported material as recently […]
US scrap prices fell across the board in May, and expectations are that June could move lower still on weaker global demand. “Domestic demand was generally decent aside from several mills in the Ohio Valley that had substantially reduced buy programs,” one scrap source said. “Ironically, Ohio is still home to the strongest ferrous scrap market […]
Sheet price continued to decline this week on increased supply, shorter lead times, and aggressive pricing from some domestic mills. Also pressuring steel prices were expectations of lower scrap prices and import competition. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,070 per ton ($53.50 per cwt), down $35 per ton from $1,105 per ton last […]
Raw steel production by US mills dropped slightly last week vs. the previous week, according to data released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) on Monday, May 8. Domestic steel production was 1,712,000 net tons during the week ended May 6, off 0.2% from 1,716,000 tons the prior week. Production was 3.4% lower than the […]
Premiums for aluminum in the US took fell again last week following a period of stability after the Federal Reserve stepped in the wake of the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Economic struggles have continued to depress shipment volumes into Q2, and many major macro data points are still muddied. Last week another bank […]