Contributing writer, Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC, provides a glimpse at the financial, copper, steel (hot rolled coil), iron ore and scrap markets for our readers. Mr. Marshall is well known within the futures community and is the instructor for our Managing Price Risk I & II workshops. Financial Markets: Rethinking Island Mentality The […]
Ferrous scrap prices for shipment to the domestic steel mills around the country have been dropping since the negotiations began at the beginning of the month. For most geographical areas scrap prices have declined $15-$20 per gross ton compared to where they were at this point in time last month. Our Chicago area sources are […]
In the first eight months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 10,404,531 metric tons, down by 18.7 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of August exports were 1,575,716 tonnes, this was the highest volume month of the year, beating out May by 26,000 tons. Figure 1 shows that the three month […]
Apparent steel supply for August was 10,252,449 net tons, down slightly from July which was the largest tonnage month since the beginning of the Great Recession. Apparent steel supply is calcualted by adding domestic shipments and finished US imports and subtracting total US exports. Note that our Premium member analysis breaks down apparent steel supply […]
We are starting to see continuous movement in flat rolled steel prices – especially on hot rolled coil which was down another $5 per ton this week. Steel Market Update is also starting to gather price points beyond the range of “slippage” and we have therefore adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower […]
Steel Market Update read an article from Reuters on Monday that referenced a CISA official who was quoted as saying that the Chinese steel mills will export less steel in 2015 than what they will end up exporting this calendar year. We asked one of our main trading sources in Asia, who trades iron ore […]
Below is an article on the Asian scrap markets from one of our contributing writers, Damon Sun of Daido International. The last few weeks were chaotic in the markets. Most Asian countries look to Taiwan for indications on market directions and a base for pricing. With the rapid decrease in prices in iron ore (abt […]
In mid-August, SMU reported on the high influx of steel at the Port of Houston and logistic problems with storage and transportation. According to Port of Houston data, steel imports continue to be dramatically higher than comparable levels in 2013. Year to date import of steel in August was 4,133,698 tons, 40.3 percent higher than […]
Final steel imports totaled 3,698,435 net tons (3,355,168 metric tons) for the month of August, down 4.2 percent from 3,858,692 tons in July but up 28.5 percent from 2,878,367 tons August of last year. On a 12 month moving average (12MMA) basis, total steel imports through August are at the highest level recorded in our […]
Below is a press release issued by The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) titled “Steel Exports Show Monthly Increase, Yearly Decline” Falls Church, VA. October 7, 2014. Steel exports from the United States bounced back in August following a late spring-early summer dip. August exports increased 4.1 percent from their July level to total […]
The collapse of spot iron ore prices resulted in a surge in iron ore swaps, options and futures in September. Options hit the highest ever volume at 15.6 million tonnes followed by futures at 25 million tonnes according to TSI data. In total, over 62 million tonnes of futures and derivatives were cleared by exchanges […]
For the week ending October 4, 2014, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated that the U.S. steel industry produced 1,825,000 net tons (NT) of raw steel, a 1.1 percent decrease over the previous week and a 1.4 percent decrease over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 75.9 […]
As of Friday of this past week, SMU, CRU and Platts had hot rolled price averages as $655, $656 and $655 per ton. SteelBenchmarker did not report prices last week and remains stuck at $668 per ton. Our average dropped to $659 per ton as all three of the reporting indexes saw HRC down $5 […]
The hot rolled futures market has been active this week. After weeks of very little movement, selling has pushed futures prices into a more dramatic backwardation. Nearby months such as November and December have fallen $7 to $632. Further down the curve, HRC prices have fallen slightly more with all months in 2015 falling $8 […]
Steel Market Update spent the last two days canvassing end users and service centers to see where flat rolled steel prices are at the moment and where they might be heading from here. We heard from many service centers and end users that business conditions and demand for their products are doing quite well. We […]
Barge availability is becoming an issue on U.S. waterways. According to the MID-SHIP Report, demand for barges to move record grain production is putting upward pressure on shipping costs. MID-SHIP also reports berth congestion for some breakbulk facilities along the Mississippi River due to strong steel shipments. Availability constraints in trucking and rail are adding […]
As we try to point out on regular basis, import license data is an imperfect program and can only suggest what ballpark the final number will be in. Last week the import license data was suggesting September would meet or exceed 4.0 million net tons (all products). Based on license data updated on September 30th, […]
According to The Steel Index iron ore spot prices have dropped to $77.50 per dry metric tonne (dmt) for 62% Fe fines CFR Tianjin Port, China. This is the 52-week low for ore trading which is suffering from a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Iron ore has been on a steady decline since the beginning […]
Raw steel production is reported on a weekly basis and then on a monthly basis by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). The weekly report, like the one we have published in today’s newsletter, is based on a response rate of approximately 50 percent of the producing steel mills. The weekly report is then […]
For the week ending September 27, 2014, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated that the U.S. steel industry produced 1,846,000 net tons (NT) of raw steel, a 2.4 percent decrease over the previous week and a 1.5 percent decrease over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 76.7 […]
Ferrous scrap prices for October, which a couple of weeks ago were being forecast to move sideways (no change), are now looking as though they will drop $10 to $30 per gross ton. The Midwest and Southeast are expected to see the least price movement while those areas associated with exports (such as the East […]
Hot rolled dropped $4 per ton based on the averages of the four indexes followed by Steel Market Update. Three of the indexes had hot rolled at $660 per ton (SMU, Platts) or $661 per ton (CRU) with SteelBenchmarker the highest at $668 per ton. For cold rolled, SteelBenchmarker was the lowest index at $774 […]
From the years 1997 through 2007 Steel Market Update’s founder and publisher, John Packard, was representing Winner Steel, a domestic conversion mill operating out of Sharon, Pennsylvania and now part of the NLMK USA group. He shares some of his old notes on galvanized pricing which ultimately lead to the beginnings of Steel Market Update […]
Foreign steel imports accounted for 27 percent of the August 2014 monthly usage and a like percentage for annual steel usage according to data just released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Foreign imported steel tonnage was lower in August than the prior month but is way ahead of the tonnage received in […]
The following is a “hypothetical” calculation of the spread between world hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA & Canada) hot rolled prices. Actual HRC price spreads can vary based on freight costs, trader margins and other factors. SMU compares the world export price with adders for freight, handling, trader margin, etc., against the spot […]
Andre Marshall, an active futures trader and owner of Crunch Risk, LLC, provided the following recap of hot rolled futures, iron ore and scrap as well as some words regarding the financial markets and copper trading. Here is what he shared with SMU this evening: Financial Markets: Well today saw a pretty big drop in […]
Steel buyers think the domestic mills are riding high at today’s prices. Iron ore prices are dropping, coking coal is down and scrap has been treading water and the word is it may dip a bit as we enter the month of October. Steel buyers think the mills are floating on the top of the […]
Through the 23rd of September foreign steel import licenses continue to suggest that September imports could exceed the 4.0 million net tons reported in the final census numbers for May 2014. The license data suggests that the biggest surge in imports will move through the domestic steel mills as semi-finished import licenses are trending toward […]
Zinc prices hit a three year high in September at $2390/t, escalating quickly from the mid $1900s in March. Although the prices have moderated in the last few weeks zinc, as of September 18, zinc was at $2247/metric ton on the LME index. The soaring prices are due to production shortfalls and higher demand. The […]
The Canadian International Trade Tribune (the Tribunal) determined last Friday that there is reasonable indication that dumping and subsidization of OCTG products from nine countries have caused or may cause injury to the domestic market. The countries named in the investigation are Chinese Taipei, the Republic of India, the Republic of Indonesia, the Republic of […]