Even though the Trump administration has postponed a decision on Section 232, the possibility of trade action that will further restrict steel imports is still influencing the market, according to comments from service centers, manufacturers and trading companies gathered in last week’s Steel Market Update Flat Roll Market Trends questionnaire. Two-thirds of all steel buyers […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are fairly optimistic about their chances for success in the current market, though the various metrics Steel Market Update uses to gauge future demand are sending mixed signals. One likely cause is the uncertainty injected into the market by the Trump administration’s now-delayed Section 232 investigation. According to the latest SMU […]
The lack of a committed market direction by service centers, coupled with strong imports and inventories that SMU believes are balanced to slightly bloated at the distributors, has prompted us to move our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. In an interesting development, twice as many manufacturing companies reported that flat rolled steel […]
Responses to two questions in Steel Market Update’s latest flat roll market trends analysis elicited a clear consensus from our participants: The Trump administration’s delay in acting on Section 232 could open the door to more foreign steel imports. But the government should not necessarily penalize foreign countries just because they export a high rate […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for July was released on Friday with a gain in jobs that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The May result was revised down by 7,000 and June was revised up by 9,000 positions. Using a three-month moving average (3MMA), the July result was 195,000 jobs, which was pulled down […]
Despite getting pressure to adjust our SMU Price Momentum Indicator due to uncertainty associated with the Section 232 investigation and the lack of a recommendation to date, along with small signs of a need by one or two steel mills for orders on galvanized, SMU is continuing to reference flat rolled steel prices as moving […]
The following article is from responses left to a question we had in our early August flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire. We inquired about how buyers and sellers of steel felt regarding steel prices with Section 232 somewhat sidelined for awhile. Results were mixed. Nearly half of the respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to represent buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel as being optimistic about their companies’ ability to be successful in both the current market environment as well as three to six months into the future. As a single data point collected by Steel Market Update as part of […]
Flat rolled lead times have seen little change in the past month. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets based on responses to a comprehensive questionnaire. When looking at lead times, the analysis is restricted to responses from manufacturers and distributors, who accounted for 84 […]
Over the course of this week, Steel Market Update has been canvassing active participants in the flat rolled steel markets as we try to capture any changes in market trends. The more than 100 respondents we had this week provided us a snapshot on how steel mills are handling price negotiations. As a group, respondents […]
In the Key Indicators data released in July, both the present situation and trends have recovered from what now appears to have been a temporary downward blip in June. Trends lead the present situation by about four months. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those […]
The steel market is waiting anxiously to see if the Trump administration places additional tariffs or quotas on steel imports. Opponents of the proposed Section 232 trade action say it will be bad for the U.S. economy, in particular U.S. manufacturers that will have to pay more for raw materials, making them less competitive versus […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a detailed analysis of the flat rolled steel market. We invite 650 individuals representing approximately 625 different companies to participate by taking an online questionnaire. The questions cover a wide variety of topics that are germane to their unique industry segment. The two main groups asked to […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen some erosion since peaking at +77 around March 1. However, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about the potential for their company to be successful in both the existing market and three to six months into the future. Buyers and sellers of […]
Flat rolled lead times remain flat compared to what we reported for early July, as well as one month ago. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets. This is done through the use of a comprehensive questionnaire focused on manufacturing companies and service centers, which […]
Despite the risks associated with Section 232 and the belief that flat rolled steel prices will rise prior to and immediately after the announcement of a Section 232 decision, mills appear somewhat more open to price discussions. Based on the responses received this week from our flat rolled market trends questionnaire, buyers and sellers of […]
After a careful analysis of the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) carbon flat rolled shipment and inventories data, and then applying that data to our proprietary Apparent Excess/Deficit inventories model, we have determined that distributor inventories improved during the month of June. At the end of May, based on the MSCI data, SMU calculates that […]
Is today’s contentious and acrimonious political climate having a negative effect on American business? Is the win-at-any-cost attitude in politics, so evident in everyday news reports, eroding ethical business practices in steel and other industries? Is it OK to bend the truth or to make up “fake news” to damage your competition? The desire to […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the second consecutive week, following a 10-week streak of being in negative territory. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
Flat roll lead times have remained within a narrow range over the past six months, according to the manufacturing companies and steel service centers responding to our flat rolled market trends analysis last week. Hot rolled lead times now average 4.41 weeks, which is the same as what we reported in mid-June, but still one-half […]
We saw steel mill lead times as being essentially the same to slightly higher than what we measured at the time of the last price increase announcements (week of June 5th). When the announcements were made, most steel mills were actively trying to collect increases. We saw the bottom of our price range rise, and […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has come off historical highs set during the late first and early second quarters 2017. However, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about the potential for their company to be successful in both the existing market as well as three to six months into the […]
With the threat of a Section 232 decision in favor of the domestic steel mills looming over the market, Steel Market Update (SMU) has decided to take our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. It is our opinion conditions are in place to push flat rolled steel prices even higher from their current levels. […]
An explanation of the Key Market Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation, which is subjective, and our analysis of trends, which is based on the latest facts available. In the June […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted an analysis of the flat rolled steel market trends. As part of that process, we asked the 100+ companies who responded to our inquiries if quotas or tariffs would be good or bad for their company. We found the majority of the mostly manufacturers and service centers responding […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted one of our flat rolled steel market trends analyses as we surveyed manufacturing companies, service centers, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors. During the process, we inquired as to whether our respondents felt the newest round (and any more to come) of steel price increases were “justified.” […]
The sentiment among buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel remains largely positive, according to Steel Market Update’s latest steel market analysis, although it has dipped a bit in the past month as the industry awaits a ruling on Section 232 and whether the government will further restrict steel imports on the basis of national […]
Steel mill flat rolled lead times, which have generally trended downward this spring, my be showing early signs of lengthening, reflecting new strength in demand for domestic steel products. Mills were successful in collecting a price increase earlier in the month. Despite SMU data that shows service center inventories at “comfortable” levels, some distributors may […]
Steel buyers report that mills are considerably less willing to negotiate prices on spot orders than they were a month, or even two weeks, ago. The findings of the latest SMU survey of service centers and manufacturers indicates that only about half find mills willing to negotiate on hot roll spot buys, compared with more […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the ninth consecutive week, following an eight week streak of being in positive territory. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]