Domestic mills are in the driver’s seat and steel prices have nowhere to go but up, agreed most respondents to Steel Market Update’s flat roll market trends questionnaire this week. SMU contacts steel buyers twice each month to monitor their views on market conditions. Asked for their opinion on the current direction of steel prices, […]
Current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers ticked up a bit in the past two weeks, according to the Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The same pattern started to appear at this time last year, leading into a strong first quarter. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures changes in buyers’ […]
Mill lead times have seen little change in the past month, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s flat roll market questionnaire, despite the price hikes announced by the mills two weeks ago. One of the key indicators tracked by SMU, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order levels […]
Buyers of flat rolled steel report that domestic steel mills are tightening up negotiations a bit on spot pricing, especially on cold rolled and coated products, as would be expected following the price increases announced two weeks ago. But the majority report that mills are still generally open to price discussions as the year comes […]
Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Higher from Neutral earlier today. It is our opinion that flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We last adjusted Momentum on Oct. 18, 2017, when we moved from “Lower” to “Neutral.” We are hearing from buyers and sellers of […]
Steel Market Update’s steel market indicators show improved trends in the November data. In our examination of data released in November, our view of the present situation is that 47.2 percent of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 19 percent negative. The balance is within the band of historically normal. The total of […]
Flat rolled steel service centers apparently do not have the luxury or ability to raise spot prices, even after two price increases by the domestic steel mills, according to the latest flat rolled steel market trends analysis by Steel Market Update (SMU). Last week, in SMU’s mid-November flat rolled analysis, one of the key areas […]
Flat rolled steel inventories ended the month of October in a balanced situation based on the Steel Market Update Apparent Excess/Deficit proprietary model, which is applied to the MSCI inventories and shipment data. U.S. steel service centers ended the month of September with +68,000 tons of excess inventories, based on the SMU model. Our forecast […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts an analysis of the flat rolled steel market and the trends that affect pricing, demand, etc. Each analysis is conducted via an email invitation to complete a questionnaire. SMU invites approximately 650 individuals who are active participants in the manufacturing, distribution, toll processing, trading and steel mill […]
Were you surprised by the price increases announced this week by the major mills? If you were, don’t feel bad. You were among the majority of steel buyers who could foresee no clear direction for steel prices. On Monday, Steel Market Update sent its market trends questionnaire to 650 steel buyers asking, among other questions, […]
Despite all the uncertainty regarding possible trade action and steel prices, the Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is holding steady, and at a higher level than last year. Steel buyers’ sentiment appears to have bottomed out in October and November and, in Steel Market Update’s opinion, is poised to pick up along with […]
The latest lead time data based on the Steel Market Update flat rolled steel survey—largely unchanged from two weeks ago–offers no clear indication of whether this week’s price announcements by three of the flat rolled steel mills will be accepted by the marketplace. SMU began collecting responses from steel buyers on Monday of this week, […]
Buyers of flat rolled steel report that most domestic steel mills are open to negotiating spot prices, especially on cold rolled and coated products, even though the major mills announced price hikes this week. About half of the respondents to this week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire reported a mixed market, with some mills […]
Total rolled steel imports declined by 14.0 percent in the three months through October, compared to the three months through July. Sheet products were down by 12.6 percent on the same basis, based on final license data for October reported by of the U.S. Commerce Department on Nov. 7. The data is reported within the […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been working on developing and then expanding a new steel service center flat rolled steel inventories analysis. We are providing a sample of the analysis, which will be available initially to Premium level customers, as well as those service centers that participate by providing data to Steel Market Update. If […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts an analysis of the flat rolled steel markets and trends associated with those who buy and sell hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume and steel plate. One of the key areas we review is how steel service centers are handling spot pricing to their end user customers. […]
Is another mill price hike likely? Nearly 60 percent of respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire earlier this week said they do expect the steel mills to make another price announcement this month before the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 23. The other 40 percent are doubtful. Following are some of their comments: · […]
The real news coming out of this week’s flat rolled steel market trends analysis is the jump in the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index when looking at the index as a single data point, as opposed to a three-month moving average, which is our preference. Measured as a single data point, the average among those […]
After price increase announcements, it is important to follow steel mill lead times (and other keys) as a way of seeing if the increases are being seriously considered by steel buyers. The farther and faster lead times move out, the more support for the price increases announced by the domestic steel mills. Steel Market Update […]
According to the buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel, the domestic steel mills are willing to negotiate spot steel prices. The percentages of those reporting the mills as willing to negotiate has shrunk, but continues to be well above 50 percent. This is a bit of a surprise considering the price announcements made in […]
Steel market indicators look good in the October data, but the trends took a turn for the worse. In the data released in October, our view of the present situation is that 47.2 percent of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 19 percent negative. The balance are within the band of historically normal. […]
As we approach the end of October, SMU wanted to update our readers on the flat rolled inventory information we have been collecting from the steel service centers in the United States. At the end of July, we began gathering the number of months of supply being held at a select number of service centers. […]
We did a quick check of lead times at a number of domestic steel mills on Friday of this past week. This is what we learned: Steel Dynamics Industries (SDI) – Butler, Ind. HR – closed for November production Pickled – closed for November production CR – closed for November production HRG – 11/20 (4 […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis on the flat rolled steel market. Our focus is on pricing and price direction, demand, inventory management, international steel, buyers’ sentiment, service center spot price direction, mill lead times and negotiations, and more. We have been conducting our market analysis going back to late 2008. The […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted one of our flat rolled steel market trends analyses, sending invitations to 655 executives associated with the manufacturing, steel distribution, steel mills, trading companies and toll processor segments of the industry. The majority of respondents completed the questionnaire prior to the ArcelorMittal USA price increase announcement. One of […]
SMU Note–The Kobe Steel scandal regarding falsifying test certifications has had a ripple effect. Steel Market Update asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire if the Kobe scandal is raising some concerns that other mills may cut corners with testing and falsify documentation. Twenty-nine percent of our respondents had concerns. From […]
On Tuesday of this week, ArcelorMittal USA announced new “minimum” base pricing on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized products. On Wednesday, Nucor and North Star BlueScope followed with increase announcements of their own of $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt). This morning (Thursday), NLMK USA emailed a letter to their customers advising of their intention to […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index market cycle appears to have bottomed as buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel were slightly more optimistic than what we collected at the beginning of the month. We measured the single data point for those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire this […]
Flat rolled steel lead times continue to shorten up, a trend under way since early August, according to the service centers and manufacturers who responded to Steel Market Update’s flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire this week. On average, lead times have dipped to nearly three weeks for hot rolled, slightly less than six weeks […]
On Monday of this week, Steel Market Update began collecting data for our mid-October flat rolled steel market trends analysis. We invited over 600 companies to participate in our questionnaire. The vast majority of the respondents are either service centers or manufacturing companies. Based on the data collected we found that prior to any of […]