Steel Market Update began working with a large group of flat rolled and plate steel service centers last July regarding producing a new index for distributor inventories. Our initial concentration has been to collect the number of months of supply steel distrubutors were averaging as of the end of the month. Earlier this week, we […]
Last week, Steel Market Update conducted our early May flat rolled steel market trends survey. One of the key areas that we focus in on is the area of service center spot pricing to their end customers. We are interested in better understanding if steel distributors are raising, lowering or keeping spot prices the same […]
The vast majority of companies that buy foreign steel say they will continue to source product from outside the United States despite the Trump administration tariffs. About 88 percent of those responding to last week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire say they will continue to buy foreign, while the other 12 percent say they […]
With 66 percent of our service center data providers reporting, flat rolled inventories were modestly lower as of the end of April at 2.6 months of supply compared to March when inventories were at 2.7 months. A large percentage (52 percent) of the companies reporting told SMU their number of months of supply for flat […]
Since November 2008 Steel Market Update has been measuring how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel felt about their company’s ability to be successful in both the existing (current) as well as future (3-6 months into the future) market conditions. The result is our nationally known SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index which we believe […]
Compared to this time last year, flat rolled lead times are highly extended – on all products. Plate lead times, which is not on our graphic, are also highly extended, but we are treating it differently as the domestic mills are on controlled order entry/allocation with their plate customers. Hot rolled lead times are averaging […]
Extended lead times will generally lead to steel mills being stingy about offering “deals” below the company pricing guidelines. Flat rolled steel prices have essentially plateaued. There may be a small number of “deals” out there (is $860 HRC really a “deal?”), but most mills are sticking to their guns. In all four products (hot […]
Key market indicators tracked by Steel Market Update are at an all-time high for April but have shown signs of weakening in the past few months. Data released in April shows that 18 of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 5 negative. The balance is within the historically normal band. Trends took a […]
This is Steel Market Update’s first Key Market Indicators report since April as we have renegotiated some data supply contracts and made a few changes to the content. The report still summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance to steel buyers. Data released […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level readers. For more information about upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Key market indicators in December were at an all-time high in the history of Steel Market Update’s analysis, but trends are deteriorating. This report summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe […]
Last month, Steel Market Update forecast flat rolled steel shipments from U.S. service centers would remain steady at 109,565 tons per day in February to 109,594 tons per day in March. The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported last week that sheet distributors shipped 107,314 tons per day, a decrease over February. Our shipment forecast […]
Once each quarter, Steel Market Update publishes the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party figures, but we include them in our reports because of the importance of China in the global steel scene, and these numbers are all that’s available. […]
Is your company at risk due to the impact of the Section 232 tariffs? Industry executives responding to Steel Market Update’s April 16 flat rolled market trends questionnaire are almost evenly split on whether the Trump administration tariffs will help or hurt their businesses. Fifty-two percent say their business is not at risk, while 48 […]
According to manufacturing companies, as well as steel service centers, the steady trend for higher flat rolled steel spot prices out of the distributors is changing. For the past four months, at least 74 percent of distributors and their manufacturing customers have been reporting spot flat rolled prices as rising. The 46 percent of the […]
We have been struggling with the decision as to when we should make an adjustment to the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. The issue that has been holding us back for the last week or two is the role the government is playing in the steel market, which muddies the water. We have made the decision […]
Both current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers remain at optimistic levels, though buyers’ confidence appears to have seen some erosion as measured by the three-month moving averages in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The index is designed to measure changes in buyers’ attitudes, which offers insight into their likely decision-making. […]
Based on responses to this week’s Steel Market Update flat rolled market trends questionnaire, mill lead times remain extended, but appear to have stabilized a bit in the past month. Mill lead time, which is the amount of time it takes for the domestic mills to produce a new order taken this week, is one […]
Are steel mills willing to negotiate spot prices on new orders in the current market conditions? For the most part mills are holding firm, but there may be some initials signs of a loosening in price negotiations, according to respondents to this week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire. Every two weeks, in a proprietary […]
As Steel Market Update analyzed the inventory data received from flat rolled steel distributors, we found the number of months of supply that steel service centers are carrying was lower at the end of March than what we reported at the end of February. With 96 percent of our data providers reporting, the number of […]
Since the beginning of the New Year, manufacturing companies and steel service centers have been reporting service center spot pricing to their end customers as rising. Just a few weeks ago, 100 percent of the manufacturers responding to our mid-March flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire reported distributor prices as rising. Last week, Steel Market […]
Steel Market Update’s new analysis of sheet, plate, long and tubular product imports and their 18 subcategories is still a work in progress, but it offers a timely means to examine the effects of the Section 232 legislation on the market. Table 1 shows total supply to the market in three months through February and […]
“Compared to one month ago, demand is declining, but to a more normal level,” commented one respondent to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire last week, expressing a common view. There has been a surge in demand in recent weeks due to the Section 232 tariff decision by President Trump. Many buyers have been buying […]
The following report was originally published last week for our Premium level members. The SMU service center inventories months of supply index began in July 2017 and we continue to add flat rolled and plate steel distributors to our confidential data provider list. If you would like to be added to our data provider list […]
Both current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers saw little change in the past two weeks as the market paused to see how the maneuvering on the trade front plays out. In general, buyers’ attitudes remain at optimistic levels but are below year-ago levels, which SMU finds concerning. We are finding a growing […]
Based on the latest SMU Flat Rolled and Plate Steel Market Trends Survey, mill lead times on flat rolled steel remain highly extended, close to the levels measured by Steel Market Update in mid-2016, as mills scramble to fill orders on strong demand. Mill lead times, which are the amount of time it takes for […]
Steel Market Update conducted our early April survey earlier this week. One of the key proprietary products produced is how buyers and sellers of flat rolled represent the mill negotiation position. Are steel mills willing to negotiate spot prices on new orders at this time? Buyers responding to this week’s SMU market trends questionnaire reported […]
Key market indicators tracked by Steel Market Update in March remain very positive, but took a small step back from the all-time highs reported in February. Data released in March shows that 18 of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 5 negative. The balance is within the band of historically normal. Trends deteriorated […]
Twice per month, once at the beginning of the month and then again in the middle of the month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the trends impacting the flat rolled and plate steel markets. We invite 640 individuals associated with flat rolled and plate steels in purchasing, sales or executive positions at manufacturing, […]
Steel Market Update forecast that flat rolled steel shipments from U.S. service centers would slightly decline from 105,109 tons per day in January to 104,577 tons per day in February. The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported last week that sheet distributors shipped 109,565 tons per day, an increase over January. Our shipment forecast accuracy […]
Service center shipments in February were stronger than the seasonal norm, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Metals Service Center Institute data. Daily shipments in February were 3.8 percent higher than in January. On average since 2009, February shipments have decreased by 0.4 percent; therefore, these latest numbers were seasonally better than the […]