This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index moved lower over the past two weeks as buyers appear concerned about the economy and steel demand. Steel prices remain a source of anxiety as the mills have been only partially successful at collecting their recent price increases. The goal of SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index is to measure […]
If the price increases announced by the mills over the past two months were gaining real traction, it should be showing up in lengthening mill lead times. According to Steel Market Update data, the impact on lead times has been mixed and minimal. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the […]
There has been little change in the tone of price talks over the past two weeks. The majority of buyers continue to report that mills generally are willing to negotiate to secure spot orders, even as they work to collect recent price increases on flat rolled and plate products. Since late June, the mills have […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, SMU has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled, then into four thickness ranges, and then identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. Through June 2019, of the total cold rolled sheet and strip imports into […]
The official economic statistics out of China showed a decline in industrial production in July. But in June, China’s share of global steel production was 55.1 percent. Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. We don’t know the accuracy of these numbers, […]
The upturn in steel prices appears to have some staying power as both service centers and their manufacturer customers reported rising prices in the first half of July, according to findings from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. As seen in the chart below, the majority of service centers (54 percent) said they are […]
Steel prices are up, but the same cannot be said for industry optimism. Following a brief uptick shortly after the mill price increases were announced last month, Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has ticked back down. Steel buyers’ comments suggest that concerns about the economy, steel demand and the staying power of the higher […]
The mills may have the momentum today, but three out of four buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week expect that pricing push to be short-lived. About 73 percent said they expect steel prices to drop in the fourth quarter. Another 11 percent said they are not paying higher spot prices […]
For a steel industry that is hoping to collect higher prices on flat rolled and plate products, the mills seem surprisingly willing to negotiate, according to the findings from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Well, then again, when you announce $120 per ton of base price increases (or more, depending on what your […]
Lead times for steel delivery are slightly longer for hot rolled, galvanized and plate steels following price increases announced by the major mills. The average lead time for hot rolled is now approaching four and a half weeks, cold rolled nearly six weeks, and coated steels around six and a half weeks. Plate lead times […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of Key Market Indicators shows the present market situation was basically unchanged in the last month, based on data released in July, but half the 36 indicators trended positive and half negative. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail […]
Price momentum has shifted dramatically in the steel spot market since mid-June following three price increase announcements by the major mills. Both service centers and their customers report rising prices in today’s marketplace. As seen in the chart below, 81 percent of the service centers polled by Steel Market Update just six weeks ago said […]
Rising steel prices may be giving a lift to industry attitudes. Steel Market Update’s latest Steel Buyers Sentiment Index shows an eight point increase in Current Sentiment and an 11 point increase in Future Sentiment. While a single week’s results can’t reliably predict a new trend, the uptick is a notable change from sentiment data […]
Steel Market Update data indicates that the mills have been able to collect some, but not all, of their recent price increases. Their apparent willingness to continue negotiating on spot orders, as reported by steel buyers to SMU, casts doubt on the resolve they will need to collect the rest. Certainly, steel prices are much […]
Lead times for steel delivery have continued moving out over the past two weeks as the three price increases announced by the mills have drawn more buyers off the sidelines. The average lead time for hot rolled has moved up to more than four weeks, cold rolled to about six weeks, and coated steels to […]
Steel Market Update has been analyzing service center inventories for two years now. With our acquisition by the CRU Group, we expanded the breadth and depth of our coverage. Our new Service Center Inventories Index will be rolled out to the public at the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta at the end of […]
In Sunday’s issue of Steel Market Update, we adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled from Neutral to Higher. One of the justifications for that move was the Service Center Spot data we were collecting last week. In our analysis, we found a change in pricing mentality, not a 180 degree change, but a […]
Steel Market Update has moved our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled products from Neutral to Higher. We continue to reference plate Price Momentum at Lower. This move is being made after the domestic steel mills, led by Nucor, announced two rounds of $40 per ton price increases over the past two weeks. SMU is […]
Industry optimism, as measured by Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, continues to waver in the face of uncertain demand in some sectors and steel prices that are at an important tipping point. The mills have announced price increases totaling $80 per ton in the past two weeks. If they succeed in reversing the […]
Steel price negotiations have tightened considerably as the mills have begun to hold firm in support of two $40 per ton price increases announced in the past two weeks. Note that Steel Market Update began gathering the data below on Monday, just prior to the latest mill price increase announcements on Tuesday and Wednesday. In […]
Lead times for steel delivery have moved out a bit in the past two weeks, lending support to recent mill price increases. The average lead time for hot rolled has moved up to nearly four weeks, cold rolled to nearly six weeks, and coated steels to more than six weeks. Plate lead times are bucking […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of the Key Market Indicators shows a slight improvement in both our view of the present situation and in the trend of the indicators in June. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. In it we […]
Industry optimism, as measured by Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, remains in tepid territory despite slight upticks in both the Current and Future Index readings this week. This is the first time since early April that the indexes have not shown another decline, perhaps signaling some sort of emotional bottom. But weak steel […]
One thing is certain in this crazy steel market, service centers are taking their spot prices lower and lower as each week passes. Manufacturing companies are almost unanimous in their view that flat rolled steel distributors are decreasing their spot offers. We saw 93 percent of the manufacturing companies responding to last week’s SMU flat […]
Steel price negotiations have been wide open for the past two months and there is no sign of that changing in Steel Market Update’s latest data. More than nine out of 10 steel buyers responding to SMU’s market trends questionnaire this week reported that the mills are still willing to negotiate on flat rolled and […]
The market is keeping a close eye on mill lead times, hoping for some sign they are extending and perhaps signaling a pickup in order activity at the mills. Steel Market Update’s latest numbers, which show little change in lead times, are sure to disappoint. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand […]
A higher percentage of manufacturing companies and flat rolled steel service centers are reporting distributors as continuing to lower spot pricing to their customers. We have now passed through the mythical “capitulation” level and we will explain what that means in a moment. First, we saw 79 percent of the manufacturing companies responding to our […]
Steel Market Update data supports the widespread view that steel demand is unusually sluggish for this time of year. Nine out of 10 steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week characterized demand as flat or declining. Only a small single-digit percentage see improving demand. About 35 percent of the […]
Industry sentiment has continued to erode this month as the attitudes of steel executives appear to be suffering from the relentless uncertainty over steel pricing, demand and Trump administration trade policies. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current […]